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January 31, 2012
Tuesday Truths
Full-Strength Edition

by John Gasaway

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Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 157 teams in the nation's top 14 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.

This week we at last have all 14 conferences joining the fun. Welcome aboard, very late-starting 14-game Mountain West!

ACC: It seems like Florida State doesn't know they were added to the league for football

Through games of January 30, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Florida St.       5-1   68.1    1.09    0.96    +0.13
2.  Virginia          4-2   58.3    1.01    0.88    +0.13
3.  North Carolina    5-1   72.9    1.06    0.94    +0.12
4.  Duke              5-1   65.8    1.15    1.03    +0.12
5.  NC State          4-3   69.7    1.01    0.96    +0.05
6.  Clemson           3-3   66.5    1.03    0.98    +0.05
7.  Miami             3-3   64.4    1.02    0.98    +0.04
8.  Maryland          3-3   67.4    1.01    1.04    -0.03
9.  Virginia Tech     1-5   65.3    0.91    0.97    -0.06
10. Georgia Tech      1-6   65.1    0.96    1.11    -0.15
11. Wake Forest       2-5   66.4    0.90    1.06    -0.16
12. Boston College    2-5   67.7    0.85    1.03    -0.18

AVG.                        66.4    1.00

Forget Boston College's anemic offensive rebounding, and look past Maryland's borderline Kansas-State-like ability to get to the free throw line. Those two curiosities notwithstanding, the most statistically aberrant behavior glimpsed in this league to date has been...Florida State's three-point accuracy? Believe it. The Seminoles are hitting 41 percent of their threes in ACC play. Michael Snaer and Deividas Dulkys have combined to make 24-of-45 threes against conference foes. Combine that kind of multi-source lethality with standard-issue FSU defense and you have a bona fide contender, expectations be damned. New question for the old-look ACC. Soon Syracuse and Pitt will join this venerable league, a measure many thought would at last give the league's two most venerable programs some much needed competition. Has that competition arrived ahead of schedule in the form of arrivistes like the 'Noles and their clear defensive superiors (!) Virginia? Maybe. Then again it's still January, and those two aforementioned venerable programs do have quite the bodies of work behind them. Maybe the newcomers will fade. Even if that happens, however, one way to watch the ACC the rest of the way will be to ask whether the team in Chapel Hill can play offense well enough or the team in Durham can play defense well enough to live up to their a priori veneration.

Big 12: Jamie Pollard, I salute you!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kansas            7-1   67.0    1.10    0.92    +0.18
2.  Missouri          7-2   65.7    1.13    1.01    +0.12
3.  Baylor            6-2   68.8    1.14    1.03    +0.11
4.  Iowa St.          5-3   68.3    1.04    0.96    +0.08
5.  Kansas St.        4-4   68.5    1.00    0.97    +0.03
6.  Texas             3-6   66.4    1.02    1.02     0.00
7.  Texas A&M         2-5   63.6    0.93    1.01    -0.08
8.  Oklahoma          3-5   65.2    0.99    1.09    -0.10
9.  Oklahoma St.      3-5   67.4    0.96    1.06    -0.10
10. Texas Tech        0-8   65.8    0.80    1.06    -0.26

AVG.                        66.7    1.01

Even before Iowa State's 72-64 win at home over Kansas on Saturday, it was clear something new was afoot in Ames. The fact is the Cyclones have been surprisingly respectable over the first half of the conference season, especially when seen against the backdrop of their recent performances in Big 12 play. Behold Dull and 'Clones, a tale told in efficiency margins....

2006  -0.01
2007  -0.10
2008  -0.10
2009  -0.12
2010  -0.08
2011  -0.12

ISU was reliably outscored by the rest of the conference for years, going back to the Wayne Morgan days. So in April of 2010 athletic director Jamie Pollard brought in Fred Hoiberg, an Ames native and former Iowa State star. Hoiberg was given the job despite the fact that he had no prior head-coaching experience, and a quick perusal of Google News archives shows just how skeptically this hire was viewed at the time. Hoiberg was said to be that year's riskiest hire, and Pollard's choice was seen as rooted in desperation. One national basketball writer said hiring Hoiberg as a head coach was the equivalent of hiring a national basketball writer as editor in chief of Entertainment Weekly. It's too early to say those verdicts won't turn out to be correct, of course -- there's always the possibility of a Mike-Davis-at-Indiana trajectory -- but say this much for Hoiberg. The Cyclones are better than they've been in a long while. And if it's risky to hire a guy with no experience, one might further add there are examples readily at hand where hiring a retread is no less risky.

Big East: My annual attempt to put across turnover margin as a basketball stat

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Syracuse          9-1   66.3    1.10    0.94    +0.16
2.  Marquette         7-2   69.2    1.07    0.97    +0.10
3.  S. Florida        6-3   59.9    1.06    1.02    +0.04
4.  West Virginia     5-5   65.3    1.05    1.02    +0.03
5.  Louisville        5-4   68.1    0.99    0.96    +0.03
6.  Connecticut       4-4   61.2    1.05    1.02    +0.03
7.  Georgetown        6-3   64.4    1.01    0.98    +0.03
8.  Notre Dame        6-3   59.0    0.98    0.96    +0.02
9.  Cincinnati        5-4   63.5    1.02    1.00    +0.02
10. Seton Hall        4-5   66.4    0.96    0.96     0.00
11. Rutgers           4-5   64.9    0.96    0.97    -0.01
12. Villanova         3-7   72.7    1.02    1.07    -0.05
13. Pitt              3-7   64.3    1.02    1.07    -0.05
14. St. John's        3-6   67.6    0.96    1.03    -0.07
15. Providence        1-8   65.8    1.02    1.14    -0.12
16. DePaul            2-6   73.1    0.95    1.11    -0.16

AVG.                        65.7    1.01

Syracuse has the best turnover margin in Big East play and they're alone in first place. Providence sports the worst such margin in the conference, and they're in last. Coincidence? I think not!

Conference games only
            TO%  Opp. TO% Margin
Syracuse    15.2   24.9   +9.7%
Providence  21.4   13.5   -7.9%

If you waved a magic wand over the entire Big East and said turnovers were prohibited in all games, the Orange would still be a good team -- but Connecticut would be the class of the league. On each turnover-less or "effective" possession in Big East play, Jim Calhoun's team has outscored opponents by 0.13 points. UConn's problem is that turnovers do in fact exist. The Huskies commit turnovers (on 21.2 percent of their possessions in-conference), but their opponents do not (15.3 percent). Meanwhile back in Syracuse we find that Jim Boeheim's scoring margin per effective possession nets out to 0.05 points. A substantial portion of the Orange's success to date rests on the fact that they've simply had more chances than their opponents. Turnovers are important. Let's borrow this stat from football. They won't mind.

Big Ten: Why the 2012 Boilermakers look so very odd to you

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Ohio St.          7-2   67.7    1.11    0.83    +0.28
2.  Michigan St.      6-2   63.4    1.15    0.96    +0.19
3.  Wisconsin         6-3   58.2    1.03    0.96    +0.07
4.  Michigan          6-3   59.4    1.04    1.01    +0.03
5.  Indiana           5-5   66.1    1.11    1.10    +0.01
6.  Minnesota         4-5   64.7    1.02    1.02     0.00
7.  Illinois          4-4   63.8    0.98    0.99    -0.01
8.  Purdue            5-4   63.3    1.04    1.07    -0.03
9.  Iowa              3-6   67.5    1.03    1.14    -0.11
10. Northwestern      2-6   61.5    0.98    1.10    -0.12
11. Penn St.          2-7   63.3    0.95    1.10    -0.15
12. Nebraska          3-6   62.7    0.88    1.05    -0.17

AVG.                        63.5    1.03

Matt Painter's in his seventh season as head coach at Purdue, which by some measures isn't all that long to be a head coach at one spot. After all, Jim Boeheim had already been in his job for nearly 30 years before Painter got started in West Lafayette. But doesn't it seem like Painter has seen a lot in those seven short years? From Carl Landry, Matt Kiefer, and Nate Minnoy to Anthony Johnson, Terone Johnson, and Travis Carroll, Painter has coached the healthy teams and the decimated ones, the veteran and the youthful, the talent-rich and the "hard-working" -- and he's done all of the above both with- and without-Hummel. Repeatedly. But there's always been one constant running through all of the above. A constant so constant that observers have just relied on it even to the exclusion of their own eyes to explain everything at Mackey Arena. There's always been a great defense in residence in West Lafayette, but that is no longer the case. This is the first time since 2006 (!) that we've seen a Purdue team under Matt Painter with a normal defense -- and our eyes don't know quite what to make of that. Big Ten opponents are raining made threes on this D, a unit that's allowing 1.07 points per trip in a league where even an "average" defense allows just 1.03. If you wait long enough in this game you'll see anything. BONUS fairness within the state of Indiana! Yes, Indiana's defense is even worse. Then again the Hoosiers have: a) an offense that's better than Purdue's pretty good one; and b) no recent track record of phenomenal D from which to deviate. It's apples and oranges.

Pac-12: Can this league reach the 2012 Sweet 16?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cal               7-2   66.4    1.09    0.95    +0.14
2.  Arizona           5-4   64.8    1.04    0.91    +0.13
3.  Colorado          6-3   65.2    1.04    0.93    +0.11
4.  UCLA              5-4   63.9    1.11    1.01    +0.10
5.  Washington        7-2   68.1    1.05    0.98    +0.07
6.  Oregon            6-3   66.0    1.06    1.04    +0.02
7.  Oregon St.        4-5   69.7    1.09    1.10    -0.01
8.  Stanford          5-4   65.6    1.00    1.02    -0.02
9.  Washington St.    3-6   65.4    1.05    1.13    -0.08
10. Arizona St.       3-6   61.2    0.96    1.07    -0.11
11. USC               1-8   61.5    0.85    1.00    -0.15
12. Utah              2-7   60.0    0.85    1.09    -0.24

AVG.                        64.8    1.02

It won't be easy. One of the many blessings of the NCAA tournament is said to be that at least you can play your way out of a bad seed. That's almost certainly what this league's best team will have to do come March. Take Cal, at the moment the best team in the conference. The RPI underrates the Bears (albeit slightly -- we've seen worse whiffs from the RPI, goodness knows), and that state of affairs is unlikely to change for the better for a team with games upcoming against Arizona State (RPI No. 221), USC (204), and Utah (270). If Mike Montgomery's team goes, say, 14-4 against the weakest major conference we've seen in years, that's not going to help the team's seed according to the metrics currently used by the selection committee. Indeed it's hard to envision a scenario where the top team coming out of the league avoids the dreaded 7-10 range that effectively exposes you to some of the nation's finest teams in the round of 32 (should you make it that far). Unless, of course, Cal or another team "misses" that range by being seeded even lower than a No. 10.

SEC: How good is Vanderbilt?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kentucky          7-0   62.8    1.15    0.93    +0.22
2.  Vanderbilt        5-1   62.4    1.10    0.89    +0.21
3.  Florida           5-1   61.0    1.13    0.99    +0.14
4.  Alabama           3-4   64.0    1.01    0.97    +0.04
5.  Tennessee         2-4   65.6    0.87    0.88    -0.01
6.  Ole Miss          4-3   64.1    0.99    1.01    -0.02
7.  Mississippi St.   4-3   64.4    1.06    1.09    -0.03
8.  Arkansas          3-3   70.0    0.99    1.02    -0.03
9.  LSU               2-5   64.5    0.97    1.04    -0.07
10. Auburn            2-5   61.5    0.84    0.97    -0.13
11. South Carolina    1-5   61.3    0.97    1.11    -0.14
12. Georgia           1-5   61.0    0.90    1.06    -0.16

AVG.                        63.5    1.00

We'll know soon enough. Four of the Commodores' final nine games are against Kentucky and Florida. To date Kevin Stallings' men have played the easiest conference schedule of any SEC team and, as seen here, they've performed beautifully. Luke Winn has already remarked on the surprising defensive prowess of this group of 'Dores, one that is holding conference opponents to under 40 percent shooting on their twos. (If you'd told me before the season that an SEC defense would do that, I would have been certain it would be Alabama.) Defense plus 47 percent shooting on your threes (in-conference) will win you some games. John Jenkins has been his usual self against the SEC (44 percent from outside), but the Commodore who's really kicked into gear from the perimeter has been Jeffery Taylor. The 6-7 senior has made 64 percent of his threes in-conference. Yes, Taylor's three-point attempts have been relatively rare (25 of them in six games), but when you're connecting at a 64 percent rate the damage to opponents is real. I am very much looking forward to the six games that Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Florida are about to play against each other, starting with Saturday's contest between the Commodores and Gators in Gainesville.

A-10: This will be fun to watch -- in fact it already is

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  St. Bonaventure   5-2   65.8    1.05    0.93    +0.12
2.  La Salle          5-2   69.3    1.10    1.02    +0.08
3.  Temple            4-2   67.8    1.10    1.03    +0.07
4.  Xavier            5-3   66.5    1.08    1.01    +0.07
5.  Saint Louis       4-3   66.5    1.02    0.96    +0.06
6.  UMass             5-2   74.8    1.01    0.96    +0.05
7.  Richmond          3-4   64.4    1.10    1.05    +0.05
8.  Dayton            4-3   67.5    1.14    1.12    +0.02
9.  Saint Joseph's    3-4   65.5    1.01    1.03    -0.02
10. GW                3-4   62.8    1.01    1.05    -0.04
11. Duquesne          3-4   67.2    0.97    1.03    -0.06
12. Charlotte         2-5   68.7    0.94    1.02    -0.08
13. Rhode Island      1-6   65.0    1.01    1.11    -0.10
14. Fordham           2-5   67.1    0.93    1.16    -0.23

AVG.                        67.1    1.03

In its post-Xavier moment the A-10 resembles a boiling kettle where the lid's just been popped off. In effect no team has enough heft on both sides of the ball to impose their will on 13 opponents. Dayton has a fantastic offense, but the Flyers are dreadful on D (no. 13 in a 14-team league -- take that, Fordham!). Conversely teams like St. Bonaventure, UMass, and Saint Louis have proven to be very strong defensively, but the Bonnies, Minutemen, and Billikens have all struggled to score enough points to win. Heck, even the team that's being outscored by nearly a quarter of a point per trip has somehow scratched out two wins in seven tries. That's when you know all bets are off. This league is fun.

Colonial: How Drexel learned to stop worrying and love the offense

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Drexel            9-2   60.6    1.05    0.86    +0.19
2.  VCU               9-2   64.6    1.01    0.85    +0.16
3.  Old Dominion      9-2   63.2    1.00    0.84    +0.16
4.  George Mason     10-1   66.3    1.06    0.93    +0.13
5.  Georgia St.       6-5   65.0    0.93    0.84    +0.09
6.  Northeastern      7-4   61.6    0.98    0.98     0.00
7.  Delaware          5-6   65.6    0.97    1.00    -0.03
8.  James Madison     3-8   66.4    0.95    1.03    -0.08
9.  UNC-Wilmington    4-7   66.7    0.98    1.06    -0.08
10. Hofstra          1-10   65.2    0.92    1.01    -0.09
11. William & Mary    2-9   61.0    0.90    1.05    -0.15
12. Towson           1-10   61.5    0.75    1.05    -0.30

AVG.                        64.0    0.96

Drexel's defense is right where it was last year -- fantastic -- but the Dragons have made an amazing year-to-year transformation on offense. Led by the accurate example of 6-4 sophomore Frantz Massenat, Bruiser Flint's team has been the best three-point shooting team in the league, while Samme Givens and Damion Lee have been likewise productive inside the arc. Drexel beat George Mason in Philadelphia on January 12, and unless these two meet up in the CAA tournament there's no return match scheduled. Speaking of the conference tournament, this year's Colonial is projected to be a one-bid league. The Dragons, Mason, VCU, and everyone else will likely be fighting for survival in Richmond, March 2-5.

C-USA: Hattiesburg is the place to be. (No, that's not a contradiction in terms.)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Memphis           6-1   65.2    1.09    0.90    +0.19
2.  Tulsa             6-2   61.6    1.03    0.93    +0.10
3.  Southern Miss     6-1   64.1    1.06    0.97    +0.09
4.  UCF               5-3   62.9    1.03    0.99    +0.04
5.  Marshall          4-3   65.2    0.99    0.99     0.00
6.  UTEP              3-4   62.0    1.01    1.01     0.00
7.  UAB               2-5   58.5    0.95    0.99    -0.04
8.  Tulane            2-5   64.0    0.97    1.01    -0.04
9.  Rice              3-4   64.6    0.92    0.96    -0.04
10. SMU               2-5   61.3    0.97    1.04    -0.07
11. East Carolina     1-6   65.5    1.03    1.13    -0.10
12. Houston           3-4   65.9    0.95    1.10    -0.15

AVG.                        63.4    1.00

Memphis hits the road tomorrow night for a showdown with league co-leader Southern Miss. It promises to be a great game between conference rivals -- the Golden Eagles lost a heartbreaker earlier this month in Memphis -- but the NCAA tournament implications of the game could be surprisingly small, especially for the Tigers. Both teams look pretty good through the three-letter lens that the selection committee still employs in 2012. Indeed a win for the home team could well increase the chances of two C-USA bids, without unduly harming the tournament prospects for Josh Pastner's team.

Horizon: A post-Norris-Cole league

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cleveland St.     8-2   63.4    1.09    0.94    +0.15
2.  Detroit           6-5   64.3    1.07    1.01    +0.06
3.  Milwaukee         7-4   63.8    0.95    0.91    +0.04
4.  Valparaiso        8-3   63.3    1.05    1.02    +0.03
5.  Youngstown St.    6-4   62.3    1.03    1.00    +0.03
6.  Wright St.        6-5   61.2    0.94    0.93    +0.01
7.  Butler            6-5   64.4    0.94    0.96    -0.02
8.  Green Bay         5-6   66.2    1.00    1.02    -0.02
9.  UIC               2-9   62.4    0.95    1.04    -0.09
10. Loyola           0-11   57.7    0.86    1.07    -0.21

AVG.                        62.9    0.99

In the past two weeks Cleveland State has achieved separation from the rest of the Horizon, and the fact that the Vikings have done so the year after saying goodbye to 2011 Horizon POY Norris Cole calls to mind the year Ohio State had in 2010-11 after bidding adieu to national POY Evan Turner. Gary Waters, I salute you! Your men still foul too much, but you have the best team in the Horizon. Carry that flag proudly. Your league has quite the NCAA tournament record the past couple years.

Missouri Valley: You don't want to try to outshoot Creighton

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Wichita St.       9-2   65.8    1.13    0.94    +0.19
2.  Creighton        10-1   66.5    1.14    1.00    +0.14
3.  Evansville        5-6   67.6    1.11    1.05    +0.06
4.  Missouri St.      6-5   63.4    1.04    1.00    +0.04
5.  Illinois St.      6-5   64.0    1.06    1.05    +0.01
6.  N. Iowa           4-7   63.3    1.01    1.01     0.00
7.  Drake             6-5   65.9    1.03    1.04    -0.01
8.  S. Illinois       4-7   67.5    0.97    1.08    -0.11
9.  Indiana St.       4-7   65.2    0.96    1.08    -0.12
10. Bradley          1-10   69.0    0.91    1.12    -0.21

AVG.                        65.8    1.04

This weekend Wichita State lost in triple-OT at Drake, and the numbers here suggest that the road can indeed be treacherous in Valley play -- with the possible exceptions of destinations like Carbondale, Terre Haute, or Peoria. Seen in that light Creighton's 5-0 road record in-conference is very impressive, as is the Bluejays' shooting: 54 percent on their twos and 45 percent on threes against the MVC. The Shockers still look best in Tuesday Truths terms, but it would be folly to sell Greg McDermott's team short.

Mountain West: The season is still young out West

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  UNLV              4-1   69.0    1.08    0.95    +0.13
2.  New Mexico        3-2   63.9    1.13    1.01    +0.12
3.  Wyoming           3-2   59.8    1.05    0.98    +0.07
4.  San Diego St.     4-1   64.2    0.97    0.93    +0.04
5.  Air Force         1-4   60.1    0.94    0.99    -0.05
6.  Colorado St.      3-2   65.3    1.00    1.05    -0.05
7.  TCU               2-3   66.3    0.96    1.08    -0.12
8.  Boise St.         0-5   62.3    0.95    1.08    -0.13

AVG.                        63.9    1.01

It's still painfully early in the Mountain West, and so these numbers are more sketchy and preliminary than anything else on this page. That being said, I wouldn't be shocked to find at the end of the year that San Diego State really does have the league's best defense, New Mexico really does have the league's best offense, and UNLV really is the best MWC team. We'll see.

West Coast: Official BYU 2012 motto -- "Better Newcomer than Utah or Nebraska!"

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Saint Mary's     10-0   66.4    1.20    0.98    +0.22
2.  Gonzaga           7-1   68.3    1.09    0.88    +0.21
3.  BYU               6-3   73.1    1.08    0.97    +0.11
4.  Loyola Marymount  6-3   68.0    1.01    0.96    +0.05
5.  San Francisco     5-5   71.0    1.05    1.04    +0.01
6.  San Diego         3-6   68.2    0.99    1.09    -0.10
7.  Portland          2-7   67.8    0.94    1.10    -0.16
8.  Pepperdine        2-8   63.4    0.90    1.06    -0.16
9.  Santa Clara       0-8   70.2    0.98    1.19    -0.21

AVG.                        68.5    1.03

This was to be the year that Gonzaga and Saint Mary's at long last got some competitive company in the form of new WCC member BYU. But is Dave Rose's team holding up their end of the bargain? In effect the difference in performance between the Zags and the Cougars to this point in the season has been the same as the difference in performance between BYU and San Francisco. Mark Few's team pays a visit to Provo on Thursday night and the season is still young, of course. But we should at least entertain the notion that we'll have to wait a year or more for this whole "big three" thing. Maybe the West Coast still revolves around the same old big two.

WAC: A win has occurred only when they've played each other

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Nevada            7-0   64.5    1.14    0.98    +0.16
2.  New Mexico St.    5-2   70.9    1.07    0.97    +0.10
3.  Hawaii            4-3   69.3    1.09    1.06    +0.03
4.  Utah St.          4-3   63.0    1.10    1.07    +0.03
5.  Louisiana Tech    3-4   68.6    1.01    1.03    -0.02
6.  Idaho             4-3   63.3    1.06    1.10    -0.04
7.  Fresno St.        1-6   61.2    1.00    1.09    -0.09
8.  San Jose St.      0-7   65.4    1.01    1.20    -0.19

AVG.                        65.8    1.06

The state of California is to the 2012 WAC what the state of Illinois was to the 2011 Missouri Valley, and indeed what the Land of Lincoln is to the 2012 Horizon League. (See above.) It's uncanny! COMING to a future Tuesday Truths! Why Nevada is the Iowa State of the WAC. (No, David Carter isn't from Reno, and they don't call him "The Mayor.") Don't miss it!

John uses fewer decimal points on Twitter: @JohnGasaway. This free article is an example of the content available to Basketball Prospectus Premium subscribers. See our Premium page for more details and to subscribe..

John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.

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