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It is often said that the NBA is a league controlled by a small number of elite superstars, without one of whom a team cannot possibly expect to win a championship. But is this actually true? Can we truly rule out a third of the league (or more) on Opening Night because they lack a star perceived to be capable of carrying them to the crown?
One way to examine this question is to look at how each champion's best player was regarded before the playoffs. Borrowing a methodology from Basketball-Reference's Justin Kubatko, a consensus ranking of NBA players can be attained by looking at a weighted average of their MVP award shares over the previous four seasons. Here, for instance, were the NBA's 10 best players in 2010-11 according to the weighted MVP voting approach:
Rk Player Tm MVPSh
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1 LeBron James MIA 0.695
2 Kobe Bryant LAL 0.491
3 Derrick Rose CHI 0.391
4 Dwight Howard ORL 0.388
5 Kevin Durant OKC 0.211
6 Dwyane Wade MIA 0.149
7 Chris Paul NOH 0.103
8 Kevin Garnett BOS 0.053
9 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 0.052
10 Carmelo Anthony NYK 0.016
Using that technique, here are the consensus best players on each title-winning team since 1959 (the first year the MVP-share process is possible):
Year Champion Best Player Rk Top Player Finish
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2011 Dallas Dirk Nowitzki 9 LeBron James L-Finals
2010 L.A. Lakers Kobe Bryant 2 LeBron James L-CSF
2009 L.A. Lakers Kobe Bryant 1 Kobe Bryant W-Finals
2008 Boston Kevin Garnett 6 Kobe Bryant L-Finals
2007 San Antonio Tim Duncan 5 Steve Nash L-CSF
2006 Miami Shaquille O'Neal 3 Steve Nash L-CF
2005 San Antonio Tim Duncan 1 Tim Duncan W-Finals
2004 Detroit Ben Wallace 11 Tim Duncan L-CSF
2003 San Antonio Tim Duncan 1 Tim Duncan W-Finals
2002 L.A. Lakers Shaquille O'Neal 2 Tim Duncan L-CSF
2001 L.A. Lakers Shaquille O'Neal 1 Shaquille O'Neal W-Finals
2000 L.A. Lakers Shaquille O'Neal 2 Karl Malone L-CSF
Year Champion Best Player Rk Top Player Finish
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1999 San Antonio Tim Duncan 3 Karl Malone L-CSF
1998 Chicago Michael Jordan 1 Michael Jordan W-Finals
1997 Chicago Michael Jordan 1 Michael Jordan W-Finals
1996 Chicago Michael Jordan 2 David Robinson L-CSF
1995 Houston Hakeem Olajuwon 2 David Robinson L-CF
1994 Houston Hakeem Olajuwon 1 Hakeem Olajuwon W-Finals
1993 Chicago Michael Jordan 1 Michael Jordan W-Finals
1992 Chicago Michael Jordan 1 Michael Jordan W-Finals
1991 Chicago Michael Jordan 1 Michael Jordan W-Finals
1990 Detroit Isiah Thomas 17 Magic Johnson L-CSF
Year Champion Best Player Rk Top Player Finish
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1989 Detroit Isiah Thomas 15 Magic Johnson L-Finals
1988 L.A. Lakers Magic Johnson 2 Larry Bird L-CF
1987 L.A. Lakers Magic Johnson 2 Larry Bird L-Finals
1986 Boston Larry Bird 1 Larry Bird W-Finals
1985 L.A. Lakers Magic Johnson 3 Larry Bird L-Finals
1984 Boston Larry Bird 1 Larry Bird W-Finals
1983 Philadelphia Moses Malone 1 Moses Malone W-Finals
1982 L.A. Lakers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 4 Larry Bird L-CF
1981 Boston Larry Bird 3 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-CQF
1980 L.A. Lakers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar W-Finals
Year Champion Best Player Rk Top Player Finish
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1979 Seattle Jack Sikma 16 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-CSF
1978 Washington Elvin Hayes 8 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-CQF
1977 Portland Bill Walton 7 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-CF
1976 Boston Dave Cowens 3 Bob McAdoo L-CSF
1975 Golden State Rick Barry 6 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar No Playoffs
1974 Boston Dave Cowens 3 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-Finals
1973 New York Willis Reed 6 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-CSF
1972 L.A. Lakers Jerry West 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L-CF
1971 Milwaukee Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar W-Finals
1970 New York Willis Reed 1 Willis Reed W-Finals
Year Champion Best Player Rk Top Player Finish
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1969 Boston Bill Russell 4 Wilt Chamberlain L-Finals
1968 Boston Bill Russell 3 Wilt Chamberlain L-DF
1967 Philadelphia Wilt Chamberlain 1 Wilt Chamberlain W-Finals
1966 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1965 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1964 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1963 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1962 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1961 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1960 Boston Bill Russell 1 Bill Russell W-Finals
1959 Boston Bill Russell 2 Bob Pettit L-DF
Since 1959, the average NBA champion's best player was ranked #3.3 in the league according to the consensus rankings. Here are some title frequencies for players of each ranking:
Best Titles Freq
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No. 1 24 45.3%
Top 2 33 62.3%
Top 3 40 75.5%
Top 4 42 79.2%
Top 5 43 81.1%
Top 6 46 86.8%
Top 7 47 88.7%
Top 8 48 90.6%
Top 9 49 92.5%
Top 10 49 92.5%
Top 15 51 96.2%
Top 17 53 100.0%
Taken in composite, the data appears to support the aforementioned theory that teams must have one of those elite superstars to win a title. More than three quarters of all championships in that timespan were won by teams with at least a top-3 talent as their best player, more than 80 percent went to teams led by a top-5 star, and more than 90 percent of champions were headlined by a top-8 player.
This is not to say that there aren't aberrations, exceptions that prove the rule. For instance, we view Isiah Thomas as an all-time great player now (while I disagree, many fans & experts would even go so far as to rank him ahead of John Stockton in the PG pantheon), but at the time of Detroit's two championships he was not regarded as an elite player, ranking 15th and 17th in weighted MVP voting in 1989 and 1990, respectively. Likewise, another Piston, Ben Wallace, ranked outside the NBA's consensus top 10 players when he led Detroit to the title in 2004, and Jack Sikma placed 16th during Seattle's 1979 championship season. Even a year ago, Dirk Nowitzki finished just ninth in weighted voting, with the common pre-playoff perception being that Dallas was incapable of winning it all with him as their best player.
For the most part, though, the conventional wisdom about requiring an elite star is right on the money. And based on last year's weighted MVP voting results, this means there's better than a 92% chance the title goes through Miami, the Lakers, Chicago, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Boston, Dallas, New York and/or wherever Chris Paul ends up. It's always possible for an outsider to crash this party, but if history is any guide, only the teams fueled by premium star power have a legitimate shot at hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.
Neil Paine is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Neil by clicking here or click here to see Neil's other articles.
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Bouncing Back (12/09)
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