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November 18, 2011
Sim Season
Checking the Leaderboard

by Bradford Doolittle

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It was another TNT Thursday that didn't happen, but in the Sim Season universe, it was a great doubleheader. The two games featured the league's hottest team (Magic) and the squad that may be the best team so far (Lakers). It would have been nice to see. I wonder what Kenny Smith is up to?

Since we only have a couple of boxes and game recaps, I posted an expanded leaderboard today. It includes all the standard per-game leaders, but also a couple of bonuses. First, there is the Defensive Stops category that I love so much. Andrew Bogut is our early leader in the category. There is also a category called "Production" which, I believe, is the old efficiency formula that you can still find on NBA.com. It's simply adding up the good stuff (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) and subtracting the bad stuff (missed shots, turnovers). Every category is worth a point.

It's not the worst shorthand way to evaluate a player, especially if you're just skimming through box scores because the addition is so easy. It works out that a good score correlates roughly with a good scoring average, so that gives you a little context. Incidentally, this method of rating players was pioneered by an old colleague of mine, Martin Manley, who is still putting the EFF formula to good use on the blog he does for The Kansas City Star.

Through last night, we've played the 119 games the NBA hasn't as part of Sim Season, our Strat-O-Matic simulation of the locked out 2011-12 season. We'll be doing this every day, so check back tomorrow for the results of tonight's action. You can follow me on Twitter for periodic updates on the action. Watch for the #simseason hashtag.

REMINDER: Strat-O-Matic veterans already know this, but the newest version of SOM's Computer Basketball Game (Version 9.0) was recently released. As it happens, our favorite gaming company is offering a discount for all you lockout-weary fans who want to run your own simulations. Or maybe you just want to match wits with a fellow hoops fan, no matter where in the world he/she may reside. All you have to do is go to this page to place an order. When you check out, just enter the discount code LOCKOUT to get 15% knocked off the listed price.

NOTE: The offer has been extended and now expires at 11:59 p.m. EST on Nov. 20. Enjoy!

MAGIC 92, CELTICS 87: The schedule didn't get any easier for the Celtics. One night after losing in overtime in Miami, Boston invaded the Amway Center to take on the Magic, winners of six in a row. The game was just the kind of bruising, low-scoring affair that you'd expect. Dwight Howard (12) and Ryan Anderson (11) both hit double digits in the first half, propelling Orlando to a nine-point lead at the break. The Magic maintained an advantage in that range through the third, but an 8-2 Boston surge drew the Celtics within two early in the fourth. The Celtics pulled within a single point twice, the second time on Jeff Green's bucket in the paint with 6:10 to play. But Orlando reeled off nine straight, a run began by a J.J. Redick three, and held off the Celtics down the stretch to push its win streak to seven. Howard led Orlando with 27 points and 14 rebounds, but his 9-of-20 showing from the foul line helped keep the Celtics in the game. Green paced Boston with 20 points off the bench. Orlando grabbed more than a third of its own misses and outscored the Celtics 16-2 on second-chance points.

STRAT-O-MATIC BOX SCORE
BOSTON                      16 20 27 24   87
ORLANDO                     20 25 24 23   92

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
R.ALLEN      33   4  8  50  1  2  50  1  1 100  -1   1  3  4  6  2  1  1  0  10
P.PIERCE     29   5 14  36  2  4  50  7  7 100   2   0  2  2  3  1  1  1  0  19
R.RONDO      35   5 12  42  0  0      1  2  50  -3   0  3  3 10  2  0  1  0  11
K.GARNETT    24   2  4  50  0  0      1  2  50   0   0  6  6  2  1  1  1  0   5
J.O'NEAL     12   2  3  67  0  0      0  0      -2   1  0  1  1  4  0  1  1   4
J.GREEN      32   9 16  56  2  7  29  0  0      -5   1  3  4  0  3  0  3  2  20
G.DAVIS      24   4  7  57  0  0      2  2 100   0   0  5  5  2  6  1  1  1  10
C.ARROYO      4   0  0      0  0      0  0      -2   0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0   0
V.WAFER       2   0  0      0  0      0  0       0   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
D.WEST       20   4  7  57  0  1   0  0  0      -4   0  4  4  1  1  2  0  1   8
T.MURPHY     10   0  2   0  0  1   0  0  0      -6   0  1  1  0  2  0  0  0   0
J.JOHNSON    15   0  0      0  0      0  0      -4   0  4  4  0  1  0  3  0   0
BOSTON       48  35 73  48  5 15  33 12 14  86       3 31 34 26 23  6 12  5  87
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
D.HOWARD     39   9 13  69  0  0      9 20  45   4   7  7 14  2  1  2  3  1  27
J.RICHARDSON 32   5 12  42  2  3  67  0  0       5   2  7  9  1  1  0  0  0  12
H.TURKOGLU   28   5 14  36  3  6  50  0  0       2   1  2  3  2  4  1  1  0  13
J.NELSON     26   1  4  25  0  1   0  0  0       3   0  2  2  6  2  0  1  0   2
B.BASS       23   2  7  29  0  0      2  2 100   1   3  6  9  1  2  0  2  0   6
G.ARENAS     23   3 12  25  0  4   0  6  6 100   1   0  4  4  2  4  0  4  1  12
J.REDICK     23   2  4  50  1  3  33  0  0       1   0  3  3  1  0  0  0  0   5
R.ANDERSON   23   3  9  33  1  3  33  4  4 100   4   4  0  4  0  1  1  1  3  11
Q.RICHARDSON 13   1  1 100  0  0      0  0       2   1  2  3  0  2  0  0  0   2
C.DUHON       1   0  0      0  0      0  0       1   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
J.HARPER      9   1  5  20  0  0      0  0       1   0  0  0  1  0  1  0  0   2
ORLANDO      48  32 81  40  7 20  35 21 32  66      18 33 51 16 17  5 12  5  92

BOSTON                      ORLANDO
     Fast Break Pts   6          Fast Break Pts   8
  Second Chance Pts   2       Second Chance Pts  16
Points in the Paint  30     Points In the Paint  26
       Biggest Lead   3            Biggest Lead  11

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
BOS (5-3)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  ORL (7-2)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
green,jeff...........67%  30%  0.96  - 5 19.3  howard,dwight........81%  29%  1.24  + 4 29.3
pierce,paul..........60%  32%  1.06  + 2 18.9  richardson,jason.....67%  15%  1.44  + 5 15.9
rondo,rajon..........73%  20%  1.17  - 3 18.3  turkoglu,hedo........58%  24%  1.07  + 2 13.7
allen,ray............69%  14%  1.51  - 1 14.5  anderson,ryan........48%  23%  1.12  + 4 11.9
west,delonte.........42%  17%  1.28  - 4  9.5  arenas,gilbert.......48%  39%  0.63  + 1 11.6
davis,glen...........50%  19%  1.09    0  9.5  bass,brandon.........48%  18%  0.91  + 1  8.3
garnett,kevin........50%  12%  1.24    0  7.5  redick,j.j...........48%   5%  2.69  + 1  6.4
o'neal,jermaine......25%  17%  0.84  - 2  3.2  nelson,jameer........54%   6%  1.87  + 3  6.2
johnson,jajuan.......31%   9%  0.28  - 4  0.8  harper,justin........19%  25%  0.60  + 1  3.1
arroyo,carlos........ 8%  13%  0.68  - 2  0.7  richardson,quentin...27%   0%  75.05  + 2  1.7
wafer,von............ 4%  27%  0.00    0  0.0  duhon,chris.......... 2%  54%  0.00  + 1  0.0
johnson,jajuan.......(DNP)                     allen,malik..........(DNP)  
PACE: 85.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 85.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
CELTICS..........  102.3 .514  .083 .141 .072  MAGIC............  108.1 .438  .367 .141 .166

---

LAKERS 113, KNICKS 93: The Knicks were trying to recover from a high-profile shellacking in Denver, but it wasn't going to be easy against a Lakers team that went into the contest second to Miami in our power rankings. It was also a nice contrast of styles, Mike D'Antoni's uptempo attack against Mike Brown's yawn-inducing approach. Kobe Bryant made sure that none of the stars looking on from courtside got too bored by scoring 19 points in the first quarter, leading L.A. to a 12-point lead. The Lakers scored the last 12 points of the period and extended its run to 14 on a pair of Matt Barnes free throws to start the second. The Lakers led by 13 at the break, then blew the game open with an 11-point run that extended into the fourth quarter. Pau Gasol had 32 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists and four blocks to lead the Lakers. Bryant added 29. Amar'e Stoudemire (30 points) and Carmelo Anthony (28) were the only two Knicks to reach double figures.

STRAT-O-MAIC BOX SCORE
NEW YORK                    23 22 15 33   93
LOS ANGELES L               35 23 23 32  113

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
A.STOUDEMIRE 47  14 22  64  0  0      2  6  33 -15   6  7 13  7  4  3  4  2  30
C.ANTHONY    41   6 17  35  1  4  25 15 15 100 -16   0  3  3  2  3  2  4  1  28
L.FIELDS     29   3  6  50  0  2   0  1  2  50 -19   1  3  4  0  1  1  3  0   7
C.BILLUPS    26   2  6  33  2  5  40  3  4  75  -3   0  3  3  4  4  0  2  0   9
J.HARRELLSON  7   0  2   0  0  0      0  0     -11   0  0  0  0  2  0  1  0   0
T.DOUGLAS    21   2  5  40  0  2   0  0  0      -5   1  1  2  1  3  1  1  0   4
S.WILLIAMS   18   2  7  29  1  4  25  2  2 100  -9   2  5  7  0  1  0  1  0   7
R.TURIAF     17   1  1 100  0  0      0  0       4   0  2  2  4  1  0  1  0   2
J.JEFFRIES   14   0  1   0  0  0      0  0     -13   1  0  1  1  3  4  0  0   0
I.SHUMPERT   20   3  8  38  0  2   0  0  0     -13   0  0  0  1  3  0  4  0   6
NEW YORK     48  33 75  44  4 19  21 23 29  79      11 24 35 20 25 11 21  3  93
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
P.GASOL      45  13 21  62  0  0      6  8  75   8   5  7 12  7  3  1  3  4  32
K.BRYANT     27   8 17  47  1  4  25 12 13  92  15   0  4  4  2  4  1  1  0  29
L.ODOM       21   3  4  75  0  0      0  0      13   3  5  8  2  2  1  2  0   6
R.ARTEST     31   0  6   0  0  3   0  1  2  50  24   0  1  1  2  3  4  2  0   1
D.FISHER     35   7 10  70  0  0      1  2  50  14   0  2  2  1  5  0  1  0  15
S.BLAKE      12   2  4  50  2  4  50  2  2 100   6   0  0  0  2  0  2  0  0   8
S.BROWN      21   2  4  50  0  2   0  2  2 100   5   0  0  0  3  2  1  1  1   6
A.BYNUM      27   4  5  80  0  0      1  2  50   7   1  8  9  2  3  1  3  1   9
M.BARNES     19   2  7  29  1  3  33  2  2 100   1   1  3  4  0  2  0  2  0   7
D.CARACTER    2   0  0      0  0      0  0       7   0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0   0
LOS ANGELES  48  41 78  53  4 16  25 27 33  82      10 31 41 21 24 11 15  6 113

NEW YORK                    LOS ANGELES L
     Fast Break Pts  12          Fast Break Pts   6
  Second Chance Pts   7       Second Chance Pts  10
Points in the Paint  28     Points In the Paint  40
       Biggest Lead   0            Biggest Lead  25

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
NYK (4-5)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  LAL (8-2)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
stoudemire,amare.....98%  27%  1.21  -15 32.3  gasol,pau............94%  27%  1.30  + 8 35.9
anthony,carmelo......85%  30%  0.93  -16 29.1  bryant,kobe..........56%  40%  1.08  +15 27.5
billups,chauncey.....54%  16%  1.24  - 3 10.6  fisher,derek.........73%  14%  1.10  +14 12.3
williams,shawne......38%  21%  0.96  - 9  7.5  bynum,andrew.........56%  13%  1.35  + 7 10.2
fields,landry........60%  14%  0.76  -19  5.9  blake,steve..........25%  17%  2.20  + 6 10.0
turiaf,ronny.........35%   3%  3.70  + 4  4.5  odom,lamar...........44%  11%  1.60  +13  7.8
shumpert,iman........42%  27%  0.40  -13  3.9  brown,shannon........44%  11%  1.33  + 5  7.6
douglas,toney........44%  11%  0.77  - 5  3.9  barnes,matt..........40%  23%  0.73  + 1  6.0
jeffries,jared.......29%   1%  4.23  -13  1.5  artest,ron...........65%  11%  0.38  +24  2.9
harrellson,josh......15%  18%  0.00  -11  0.0  caracter,derrick..... 4%  24%  0.26  + 7  0.3
rautins,andy.........(DNP)                     ebanks,devin.........(DNP)  
balkman,renaldo......(DNP)                     walton,luke..........(DNP)  
PACE: 93.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 93.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
KNICKS...........   99.2 .467  .262 .224 .136  LAKERS...........  120.6 .551  .294 .160 .155

---

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS
TEAM                             W   L   PCT   GB
2011-12 MIAMI MIA                6   1  .857 ----
2011-12 ORLANDO ORL              7   2  .778 ----
2011-12 CHICAGO CHI              5   3  .625  1.5
2011-12 BOSTON BOS               5   3  .625  1.5
2011-12 CHARLOTTE CHA            4   3  .571  2.0
2011-12 NEW YORK NYK             4   5  .444  3.0
2011-12 NEW JERSEY NJN           3   4  .429  3.0
2011-12 ATLANTA ATL              3   4  .429  3.0
-------------------------------------------------
2011-12 PHILADELPHIA PHI         3   5  .375  3.5
2011-12 INDIANA IND              3   6  .333  4.0
2011-12 DETROIT DET              2   5  .286  4.0
2011-12 CLEVELAND CLE            2   5  .286  4.0
2011-12 MILWAUKEE MIL            2   6  .250  4.5
2011-12 WASHINGTON WAS           1   6  .143  5.0
2011-12 TORONTO TOR              1   7  .125  5.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS
TEAM                             W   L   PCT   GB
2011-12 PHOENIX PHX              8   1  .889 ----
2011-12 DENVER DEN               5   1  .833  1.5
2011-12 LOS ANGELES L LAL        8   2  .800   .5
2011-12 MINNESOTA MIN            5   2  .714  2.0
2011-12 SAN ANTONIO SAS          5   2  .714  2.0
2011-12 MEMPHIS MEM              5   3  .625  2.5
2011-12 DALLAS DAL               5   3  .625  2.5
2011-12 OKLAHOMA CITY OKC        5   4  .556  3.0
-------------------------------------------------
2011-12 HOUSTON HOU              4   4  .500  3.5
2011-12 LOS ANGELES C LAC        4   5  .444  4.0
2011-12 GOLDEN STATE GSW         4   5  .444  4.0
2011-12 NEW ORLEANS NOH          3   4  .429  4.0
2011-12 PORTLAND POR             3   5  .375  4.5
2011-12 UTAH UTA                 2   6  .250  5.5
2011-12 SACRAMENTO SAC           2   7  .222  6.0

LEAGUE LEADERS
SCORING AVERAGE     REBOUNDS⁄GAME       OFF REB⁄GAME        DEF REB⁄GAME
K.DURANT  OKC 34.1  K.LOVE    MIN 13.7  L.ALDRIDG POR  4.8  K.LOVE    MIN  9.9
D.NOWITZK DAL 31.5  J.NOAH    CHI 12.0  J.NOAH    CHI  4.1  A.BOGUT   MIL  9.8
D.ROSE    CHI 29.6  A.BOGUT   MIL 11.8  D.HOWARD  ORL  3.9  A.HORFORD ATL  8.3
D.GALLINA DEN 28.3  A.HORFORD ATL 10.9  A.JEFFERS UTA  3.9  K.GARNETT BOS  8.1
R.GAY     MEM 27.8  B.GRIFFIN LAC 10.8  K.LOVE    MIN  3.9  C.BOOZER  CHI  7.9
M.ELLIS   GSW 26.7  D.HOWARD  ORL 10.8  B.GRIFFIN LAC  3.4  J.NOAH    CHI  7.9
L.ALDRIDG POR 26.0  K.HUMPHRI NJN 10.7  A.VAREJAO CLE  3.4  K.HUMPHRI NJN  7.9
L.JAMES   MIA 25.6  K.GARNETT BOS 10.2  B.LOPEZ   NJN  3.4  C.BOSH    MIA  7.6
K.BRYANT  LAL 25.5  A.JEFFERS UTA 10.1  D.COUSINS SAC  3.2  T.CHANDLE DAL  7.5
D.WEST    NOH 25.1  D.LEE     GSW 10.0  J.HICKSON SAC  3.2  B.GRIFFIN LAC  7.3

FIELD GOAL PCT      FREE THROW PCT      THREE POINT PCT     ASSIST⁄GAME
N.HILARIO DEN .750  D.WRIGHT  GSW1.000  R.JACKSON OKC .750  S.NASH    PHX 12.7
M.BROOKS  NJN .627  D.AUGUSTI CHA .969  T.LAWSON  DEN .667  R.RONDO   BOS 11.2
M.GORTAT  PHX .621  C.BOSH    MIA .947  B.MILLER  MIN .625  M.CONLEY  MEM  9.5
D.HOWARD  ORL .617  S.JACKSON MIL .947  K.DURANT  OKC .612  D.WILLIAM NJN  9.3
T.CHANDLE DAL .604  S.NASH    PHX .947  K.BOGANS  CHI .600  J.KIDD    DAL  9.1
C.JENKINS GSW .597  M.MORRIS  HOU .944  G.HILL    IND .579  C.PAUL    NOH  8.8
L.ODOM    LAL .593  A.AFFLALO DEN .938  M.DUNLEAV IND .577  J.CALDERO TOR  8.5
J.BAREA   DAL .592  J.FREDETT SAC .933  R.STUCKEY DET .571  R.WESTBRO OKC  7.9
K.DURANT  OKC .590  N.BATUM   POR .929  C.JENKINS GSW .560  A.IGUODAL PHI  7.9
S.MARION  DAL .583  W.MATTHEW POR .929  R.JEFFERS SAS .560  R.FELTON  POR  7.4

STEALS⁄GAME         TURNOVERS⁄GAME      BLOCKS⁄GAME         ASSIST⁄TO RATIO
R.GAY     MEM  2.4  R.RONDO   BOS  4.5  T.DUNCAN  SAS  3.0  J.ANTHONY MIA 9.00
L.JAMES   MIA  2.1  J.WALL    WAS  4.4  A.STOUDEM NYK  2.8  R.WILLIAM GSW 9.00
T.ALLEN   MEM  2.1  J.JOHNSON ATL  3.9  J.McGEE   WAS  2.7  K.HINRICH ATL 8.20
D.HOWARD  ORL  2.1  D.ROSE    CHI  3.8  S.IBAKA   OKC  2.2  J.REDICK  ORL 7.33
R.WESTBRO OKC  2.0  J.SMITH   ATL  3.6  B.LOPEZ   NJN  2.1  C.WATSON  CHI 7.00
A.IGUODAL PHI  1.9  D.COUSINS SAC  3.6  A.BOGUT   MIL  2.1  K.LOWRY   HOU 6.62
R.RONDO   BOS  1.9  D.WADE    MIA  3.3  M.GORTAT  PHX  2.1  C.PAUL    NOH 5.89
L.RIDNOUR MIN  1.7  M.ELLIS   GSW  3.1  D.JORDAN  LAC  2.0  J.NELSON  ORL 5.80
J.HOLIDAY PHI  1.6  D.HOWARD  ORL  2.9  J.NOAH    CHI  1.9  A.MORROW  NJN 5.50
J.NOAH    CHI  1.5  S.NASH    PHX  2.9  R.HIBBERT IND  1.8  J.JACK    NOH 5.50

MINUTES PLAYED      PRODUCTION          EFFECTIVE FG%       DEFENSIVE STOPS
P.GASOL   LAL  373  K.DURANT  OKC 33.0  N.HILARIO DEN .750  A.BOGUT   MIL   20
M.ELLIS   GSW  351  K.LOVE    MIN 30.4  C.JENKINS GSW .710  C.HAYES   HOU   19
D.WRIGHT  GSW  348  L.JAMES   MIA 28.4  J.HARDEN  OKC .690  C.ANTHONY NYK   18
T.EVANS   SAC  339  D.ROSE    CHI 28.2  K.DURANT  OKC .672  C.DELFINO MIL   15
A.STOUDEM NYK  338  P.GASOL   LAL 26.7  R.JEFFERS SAS .667  K.LOWRY   HOU   15
K.DURANT  OKC  334  D.NOWITZK DAL 26.5  T.LAWSON  DEN .649  N.BATUM   POR   15
E.GORDON  LAC  331  L.ALDRIDG POR 26.5  J.KIDD    DAL .647  C.BOOZER  CHI   14
D.GRANGER IND  329  S.NASH    PHX 25.3  J.BAREA   DAL .641  J.NOAH    CHI   14
R.GAY     MEM  329  D.HOWARD  ORL 24.9  M.BROOKS  NJN .637  K.BRYANT  LAL   14
K.BRYANT  LAL  324  R.GAY     MEM 24.9  K.IRVING  CLE .636  P.GASOL   LAL   14

GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

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Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

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