Home Unfiltered Articles Players Baseball Prospectus
Basketball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Click here for Important Basketball Prospectus Premium Information!

<< Previous Article
Logos Through the Year... (10/11)
Next Article >>
Look Again (10/13)

October 13, 2011
What if They Played Now?
Moses Malone

by Kevin Pelton

Printer-
friendly
Contact
Author

Center is no longer the marquee position in the NBA that it once was. Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic is the only real throwback to an era when 7-footers dominated the paint at both ends and served as their team's first option on offense in the post. Howard suffers in part from the lack of a true rival. Whereas Bill Russell had Wilt Chamberlain and Hakeem Olajuwon had David Robinson and Patrick Ewing, Howard has no equivalent center to test him.

So let's give him one. Few centers ruled below the rim as effectively as Moses Malone, who won three MVPs from 1979 through 1983 and helped lead the Philadelphia 76ers to the 1983 championship. Like Howard, Malone went pro straight out of high school, and he played all the way to the verge of his 40th birthday. In our scenario, we'll imagine that he was part of the same high school class as Amare Stoudemire. Had Malone been able to spend two years in a rival league like the ABA, he would have reached the NBA in 2004-05, just as Howard was beginning his career, and would now be in his prime.

Because the NBA did not yet track turnovers in 1977-78, we can't translate Malone's stat line for that season, so we'll begin with his first MVP campaign--2005-06, in our vision. Here are his statistics updated to modern times.

Year    Tm    G    MPG    PPG    RPG   APG    FG%
-------------------------------------------------
2006   HOU   59   35.7   16.4   12.9   0.4   .508
2007   HOU   82   41.3   20.7   15.8   1.5   .541
2008   HOU   82   38.3   21.6   13.2   1.5   .483
2009   HOU   80   40.6   24.1   13.6   1.4   .515
2010   HOU   81   42.0   27.6   13.9   1.5   .497
2011   PHI   78   37.5   20.7   13.4   1.1   .492
2012   PHI   71   36.8   19.1   12.6   1.1   .456
2013   PHI   79   37.4   20.4   12.3   1.3   .454
2014   PHI   74   36.6   19.9   11.0   1.0   .449
2015   WAS   73   34.1   20.7   10.4   1.4   .436
2016   WAS   79   34.1   18.4   10.8   1.2   .481
2017   ATL   81   35.5   16.6   10.4   1.1   .474
2018   ATL   81   33.8   16.0    9.3   1.3   .472
2019   ATL   82   23.3    8.8    7.2   0.7   .455
2020   MIL   82   30.6   13.9    8.5   1.0   .474
2021   MIL   11    9.5    4.1    3.8   0.5   .316
2022   PHI   55   11.2    5.1    3.7   0.5   .443
2023   SAS   17    8.8    2.8    2.5   0.3   .371

Although we envisioned Malone as a rival for Howard, at first he would have taken the torch from an aging Shaquille O'Neal as the league's best center. The two would have traded places during 2006-07, when O'Neal was hampered by injuries while Malone was posting the first of seven 20-point, 10-rebound seasons.

Malone's steady development would have culminated in 2009-10, which was in actuality the second of his three MVP seasons. His 27.6 points per game would have ranked fourth in the NBA and tops among post players, while Malone would have surpassed Howard as the league's leading rebounder.

In our scenario, Malone and Howard would be separated by just two years in age, giving them a lengthy period of time to battle each other--especially after a trade sent Malone to the Eastern Conference with the Philadelphia 76ers. 2010-11 would have been the first time Howard outscored Malone, while Malone's translated rebounding averages are similar to Howard's.

Our modern Malone would have begun to decline late in the decade after being dealt to the Atlanta Hawks, coming up with one last hurrah in 2019-20 with the Milwaukee Bucks (possibly as Andrew Bogut's replacement) at age 36 before finishing up his career as a reserve.

Adding in the season we couldn't update (1976-77), Malone's career totals are not quite as lofty as reality but impressive nonetheless. Playing a contemporary style, Malone would have finished with 23,564 points (good for 18th all-time) and 14,945 rebounds (sixth). His 5,167 offensive boards would have been a significant decline from his actual total (6,731) yet still good enough to rank best in NBA history by more than 500 rebounds.

Malone's prowess on the offensive glass would have stood out even more in today's NBA than it did in the 1980s. Because coaches are so concerned with getting back defensively instead of crashing the boards, and because of the rise of the three-point shot, offensive rebound percentages have been declining steadily since the late '80s. Whereas one in three rebounds was grabbed by the offense in 1982-83, today that number is not much more than one in four (26.4 percent, to be exact).

Malone's translation shows him averaging better than five offensive boards per game three times. In reality, that mark hasn't been reached since Elton Brand averaged 5.0 in 2001-02. Malone would have dominated the offensive rebound leaderboard before Kevin Love topped him with 4.5 per game last season.

The growing importance of the three-pointer would have worked to Malone's benefit. That sounds odd, given that Malone made just eight triples in his entire NBA career. Where more outside shooting would have helped Malone is by making it more difficult to double-team him in the post. Howard is a great example of this. When the Magic signed Rashard Lewis and upgraded their perimeter attack in 2007-08, it allowed Howard to dramatically cut his turnover percentage from 21.4 percent of his plays to 16.1 percent.

In general, players turn the ball over less frequently than they did in the '80s, so our projection sees Malone's career turnover total decline from 3,804 to 3,027 -- a difference of more than 20 percent that takes him from fourth in NBA history all the way to 18th.

The lack of competition in the middle outside of Howard also could help Malone boost his numbers. However, part of the reason for the position's decline is that today's best post players tend to drift to the power forward position. Some of them could have handled Malone, who was only 6-10. In fact, last season's closest comparison for Malone's 1982-83 season was actually Love. Similarly burly Zach Randolph also ranks in the top five along with Howard, Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol. As it turns out, offensive centers didn't die. They just moved over a position.

A version of this article originally appeared at ESPN Insider Insider.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Logos Through the Year... (10/11)
Next Article >>
Look Again (10/13)

RECENTLY AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS
State of Basketball Prospectus: A Brief Anno...
Tuesday Truths: March-at-Last Edition
Easy Bubble Solver: The Triumphant Return
Premium Article Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...
Tuesday Truths: Crunch Time Edition

MORE FROM OCTOBER 13, 2011
Look Again: Measuring Clutch

MORE BY KEVIN PELTON
2011-11-03 - Premium Article First Look: Kentucky
2011-10-31 - Premium Article What if They Played Now?: John Stockton
2011-10-20 - Premium Article What if They Played Now?: Kevin McHale
2011-10-13 - Premium Article What if They Played Now?: Moses Malone
2011-10-06 - Premium Article What if They Played Now?: Bernard King
2011-09-28 - Premium Article Big Footsteps: How Ryan Anderson Compares to...
2011-09-22 - Premium Article What's in Store: Projecting LeBron James
More...


Basketball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2014 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.