Call these draft rankings or call this a draft guide. Today, I'm unveiling the first half of the top 100 players in my prospect database for Thursday's draft. Most of these players won't be drafted, but some will. I find the draft much more enjoyable when I know at least something about every player being taken. Or, when I have nothing, as it was when Cleveland took Christian Eyenga a couple of years ago, I like knowing when to be shocked.
To rank players, I've created a simple rating called PROSPECT. It's a mash of the ATH25 scores I introduced on Monday and a scouting-based rating. I've referred to ATH25 in this piece as STAT--it's a statistical rating of a player's standing within this draft class. The subjective rating is called SCOUT. Inventive, isn't it? STAT and SCOUT have equal weight in this system. It's the first year I've done this and I haven't back-tested the method. In the future, I'll be able to tweak the weights given to each side of the ledger.
The SCOUT score is based on the draft rankings of a number of sites throughout the Web. I've been collecting as many ranking lists as possible over the last few years, grabbing them during the lead-up to each year's draft. That's also how I compile my list of prospects for whom to do ATH translations.
This week, I did some spot-checking to identify the four sites that I consider to have the most useful ranking methodologies. Then I did some more rigourous testing with these four sites to give them each a different weight in my SCOUT formula--the better a site's past results, the more weight they get in the SCOUT scores. I'm not going to reveal which four sites I settled upon, nor am I going to reveal my study of their past results. I am not looking to advertise for anybody else, nor am I looking to call anybody out. These folks put in long hours studying draft prospects, both on video and in person. They've forgotten more about these players than I will ever know. I am merely attempting to assign a numerical rating to summarize the consensus view of each prospect from a traditional scouting perspective. Doing this will, in the future, allow me to correlate SCOUT and STAT with actual NBA results, giving me the tools to improve my system.
The numbers you see are percentile ranks. Take the first player, Brad Wanamaker, who has a PROSPECT of 61.5 (He's in the 61st percentile of this year's draft prospects), a SCOUT score of 51.5 (51st percentile from a subjective standpoint) and a STAT score of 62.5 (62nd percentile from an objective point of view). Obviously, as I'm using percentile ranks, 100.0 is the maximum and 0.0 is the minimum.
Enough about methodology. Here are the bottom half of my rankings, with one line of commentary for each player. Most of these are statistical observations, but not all. Tomorrow, I'll post prospects 1-50, most of whom will actually hear their name called on Thursday night.
51. Brad Wanamaker, 6_4 PG from Pittsburgh (PROSPECT: 61.5; SCOUT: 51.5; STAT: 62.5)
Off most draft boards, translations suggest Brad Wanamaker can pass, draw fouls and has decent athletic indicators compiled in a power conference.
52. Sam Muldrow, 6_9 PF from South Carolina (PROSPECT: 60.7; SCOUT: 13.8; STAT: 85.1)
Despite elite defensive score generated by sky-high shot blocking, Muldrow has virtually zero chance of actually being drafted.
53. Jacob Pullen, 6_0 PG from Kansas State (PROSPECT: 60.0; SCOUT: 39.2; STAT: 71.0)
Also not likely to be drafted, Pullen can draw fouls, pass and go on torrid hot streaks and has a solid record of clutch performance.
54. Delroy James, 6_6 SF from Rhode Island (PROSPECT: 59.2; SCOUT: 23.8; STAT: 81.2)
Good athlete and rebounder with unfortunate height.
55. Shelvin Mack, 6_2 PG from Butler (PROSPECT: 58.4; SCOUT: 71.5; STAT: 35.1)
Here's one the scouts like better than the stats; we know Mack has been a winner but he profiles as a middling athlete and a poor defender.
56. Malcolm Thomas, 6_9 SF from San Diego State (PROSPECT: 57.6; SCOUT: 59.2; STAT: 47.6)
This guy is worth a second-round flier as an athlete, rebounder and defensive specialist.
57. Enes Kanter, 6_11 C from Kentucky (PROSPECT: 56.9; SCOUT: 97.6; STAT: 7.0)
Kanter is way, way better than this, but lack of a high-level performance record drags his metrics way down.
58. Matt Howard, 6_8 PF from Butler (PROSPECT: 56.1; SCOUT: 7.6; STAT: 79.6)
Howard is a complete afterthought by the scouts, but is an efficient offensive player with a winning pedigree who can bang and draw fouls.
59. Josh Selby, 6_3 PG from Kansas (PROSPECT: 55.3; SCOUT: 80.7; STAT: 24.2)
Scouts are optimistic on Selby, a probable first-rounder, because of the physical gifts he displayed as a high-profile recruit but like many one-and-done talents, that didn't translate to the stat ledger in his one season at the college level.
60. Bojan Bogdanovic, 6_7 SG from Serbia (PROSPECT: 54.6; SCOUT: 63.0; STAT: 40.6)
A good passer who can draw fouls, Bogdanovic's directorial career really slid after "The Last Picture Show."
61. David Lighty, 6_3 SG from Ohio State (PROSPECT: 53.8; SCOUT: 60.7; STAT: 39.0)
Scouts like him better than the stats, but he doesn't seem to have that one standout skill that could hook him on with a team.
62. Randy Culpepper, 6_0 SG from Texas_El Paso (PROSPECT: 53.0; SCOUT: 15.3; STAT: 73.4)
Rates as a solid athlete who can create shots and get to the line, but isn't a point guard and at six-foot, that ain't good.
63. LaceDarius Dunn, 6_4 SG from Baylor (PROSPECT: 52.3; SCOUT: 45.3; STAT: 57.8)
Dunn underachieved for the Bears, but he's a good athlete with a versatile offensive skill set.
64. Antoine Diot, 6_4 PG from France (PROSPECT: 51.5; SCOUT: 14.6; STAT: 73.4)
One of the best passers in the prospect database, Diot hasn't won over the scouting types.
65. Darius Morris, 6_4 PG from Michigan (PROSPECT: 50.7; SCOUT: 84.6; STAT: 15.6)
Someone will draft Morris, perhaps in the first round, but he stats project him as a decent-passing statue.
66. Adam Hanga, 6_7 SG from Hungary (PROSPECT: 50.0; SCOUT: 30.7; STAT: 66.4)
A good passer with good size for a guard, Hanga profiles as a very good defender.
67. D.J. Kennedy, 6_6 SF from St. John's (PROSPECT: 49.2; SCOUT: 8.4; STAT: 69.5)
Kennedy's skill set looks like that of an undersized college big who did things well that he won't be able to do in the NBA.
68. Furkan Aldemir, 6_9 PF from Turkey (PROSPECT: 48.4; SCOUT: 42.3; STAT: 53.9)
Not nearly as highly touted as countryman Enes Kanter, but Aldemir looks like a solid across-the-board athlete who, at 19, has plenty of room to grow.
69. Malcolm Lee, 6_5 SG from UCLA (PROSPECT: 47.6; SCOUT: 76.1; STAT: 17.1)
Lee has been referred to as a potentially dynamic defender, but you can't tell that from the stats; John Hollinger introduced a Ben Howland factor in his draft rater, so there may be a systemic reason why the ATH system doesn't like Lee.
70. Davis Bertans, 6_10 SF from Latvia (PROSPECT: 46.9; SCOUT: 83.8; STAT: 10.1)
Very young (18) and raw, Bertans doesn't have much of a track record (hence the low stat score) but can stroke it, making him worth a flier as a stash-overseas player.
71. Chandler Parsons, 6_10 SF from Florida (PROSPECT: 46.1; SCOUT: 68.4; STAT: 22.6)
Parsons was an accomplished player at a power program, but his athletic indicators are iffy and it doesn't appear that he's going to be able to sustain a playable usage rate.
72. Malcolm Delaney, 6_2 PG from Virginia Tech (PROSPECT: 45.3; SCOUT: 16.9; STAT: 64.0)
Won't get drafted, but his athletic indicators are excellent.
73. Andrew Albicy, 5_10 PG from France (PROSPECT: 44.6; SCOUT: 31.5; STAT: 59.3)
If Antoine Diot is one of the better passers in the pool, fellow Frenchman Albicy is at the very top.
74. Cory Higgins, 6_4 PG from Colorado (PROSPECT: 43.8; SCOUT: 4.6; STAT: 65.6)
Way off the scouts' radar, Higgins profiles as an athletic, drive-and-dish point guard.
75. Jamine Peterson, 6_6 SF from NBDL (PROSPECT: 43.0; SCOUT: 52.3; STAT: 38.2)
A strong, middling athlete, Peterson's work in the D-League may spur a team to take him late in the second round.
76. Pablo Aguilar, 6_8 PF from Spain (PROSPECT: 42.3; SCOUT: 35.3; STAT: 53.1)
Looks like a multi-skilled big man but a bit undersized.
77. Jamie Skeen, 6_8 PF from Virginia Commonwealth (PROSPECT: 41.5; SCOUT: 53.8; STAT: 34.3)
A crafty scorer, Skeen may lack the size and elite athleticism to crack an NBA roster.
78. Jereme Richmond, 6_7 SF from Illinois (PROSPECT: 40.7; SCOUT: 66.9; STAT: 20.3)
Richmond left school too early as he didn't do anything for the Illini to inspire stat mongers, but he's another rangy one-and-done player that will get a shot with someone.
79. Dallas Lauderdale, 6_8 PF from Ohio State (PROSPECT: 40.0; SCOUT: 29.2; STAT: 55.4)
Lauderdale's work as a help defender would be exciting--if only he were taller.
80. John Holland, 6_5 SG from Boston University (PROSPECT: 39.2; SCOUT: 3.0; STAT: 61.7)
The stats like Holland's ability to create a shot, not that it will help him get drafted.
81. Corey Fisher, 6_0 PG from Villanova (PROSPECT: 38.4; SCOUT: 13.0; STAT: 58.5)
An experienced floor general, Fisher doesn't have the size or upside to stick in the league.
82. Justin Brownlee, 6_7 SF from St. John's (PROSPECT: 37.6; SCOUT: 23.0; STAT: 54.6)
Much like teammate Kennedy, his solid rebound and block rates are spoiled by his size and middling athletic indicators.
83. Josh Harrellson, 6_10 C from Kentucky (PROSPECT: 36.9; SCOUT: 30.0; STAT: 50.7)
Big and efficient, Harrellson has little hope of creating offense at the next level but could possibly carve out a spot at the end of somebody's bench as a rebounder and shot blocker.
84. Nihad Djedovic, 6_6 SG from Bosnia (PROSPECT: 36.1; SCOUT: 26.1; STAT: 52.3)
Possessing a strange mix of skills, Djedovic's strength is creating his own shot off the dribble even though none of his other athletic indicators are acceptable.
85. Cory Joseph, 6_3 PG from Texas (PROSPECT: 35.3; SCOUT: 62.3; STAT: 17.9)
Joseph isn't a great athlete and isn't a great playmaker and isn't really a great prospect.
86. Scotty Hopson, 6_7 SG from Tennessee (PROSPECT: 34.6; SCOUT: 57.6; STAT: 21.0)
Like Joseph, Hopson is a player whose production falls short of his perceived level of talent.
87. Demetri McCamey, 6_3 PG from Illinois (PROSPECT: 33.8; SCOUT: 60.0; STAT: 19.5)
Quoting an Illini fan: "I hope he doesn't make it in the NBA. I'm so sick of that guy."
88. DeAndre Liggins, 6_6 SG from Kentucky (PROSPECT: 33.0; SCOUT: 47.6; STAT: 31.2)
Liggins is a legit sleeper prospect, with good defensive skills and playmaking skills for his position.
89. Andrew Goudelock, 6_3 PG from College of Charleston (PROSPECT: 32.3; SCOUT: 61.5; STAT: 14.8)
A terrific mid-major scorer, Goudelock's athletic indicators are practically nil.
90. Mamadou Diarra, 7_0 C from USC (PROSPECT: 31.5; SCOUT: 10.7; STAT: 50.0)
Strictly a shot-blocking specialist, Diarra's other metrics are a little inflated because of this one elite skill.
91. Ben Hansbrough, 6_3 PG from Notre Dame (PROSPECT: 30.7; SCOUT: 58.4; STAT: 16.4)
One where the scouts are likely more correct than the stats--Hansbrough is experienced at high-level basketball and projects as a three-point specialist who can also create opportunities for others.
92. Justin Holiday, 6_6 SG from Washington (PROSPECT: 30.0; SCOUT: 49.2; STAT: 25.7)
Like his brother Jrue, Justin's potential is a bit underappreciated by the stats as he has possibilities as a perimeter defender.
93. Robin Benzing, 6_10 SF from Germany (PROSPECT: 29.2; SCOUT: 43.8; STAT: 29.6)
Benzing is actually an exciting prospect who can not only shoot but has outstanding athletic indicators including a potential plus-plus ability to get to the line.
94. Dee Bost, 6_2 PG from Mississippi State (PROSPECT: 28.4; SCOUT: 0.0; STAT: 48.4)
Bost didn't project to be drafted but didn't pull out in time, so he's suing to gain another year of NCAA eligbility.
95. Xavier Silas, 6_5 SG from Northern Illinois (PROSPECT: 27.6; SCOUT: 21.5; STAT: 42.9)
He's a scorer and decent passer for his position, so if his athleticism is better than it seems, he could surprise.
96. Mark Payne, 6_6 PG from UC Davis (PROSPECT: 26.9; SCOUT: 5.3; STAT: 46.0)
If he can truly play the point, Payne's size is an asset but he was a mid-range shooter on a bad mid-major team.
97. Diante Garrett, 6_4 PG from Iowa State (PROSPECT: 26.1; SCOUT: 46.9; STAT: 25.0)
A good playmaker, the son of Dean needs to be a heck of a defender to make up for a shaky overall offensive profile.
98. Gary McGhee, 6_11 C from Pittsburgh (PROSPECT: 25.3; SCOUT: 19.2; STAT: 42.1)
Well, you can't teach big and McGhee could help as a spot rebounder/shot blocker.
99. Chris G. Wright, 6_2 PG from Georgetown (PROSPECT: 24.6; SCOUT: 11.5; STAT: 41.4)
His middle initial isn't really "G" -- that stands for Georgetown--Chris "D" Wright is a prospect from Dayton--Wright played a lot of high-profile games, but isn't a high-profile prospect.
100. Chaisson Allen, 6_5 PG from Northeastern (PROSPECT: 23.8; SCOUT: 22.3; STAT: 37.5)
He's got a cool name.
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Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
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