April 28, 2011
Playoff Prospectus
Beating the Odds

by Kevin Pelton

at San Antonio 110, Memphis 103 (OT) (Memphis leads 3-2)
Pace: 87.1
Offensive Ratings: San Antonio 110.1, Memphis 108.0

An entire column could probably be written just on the final minute of regulation in Game Five, as the San Antonio Spurs improbably extended their season first by five minutes, and then ultimately by at least another game. Let's hit the highlights. First, the forgotten play down the stretch was George Hill's difficult reverse layup with 37 seconds left that kept the Spurs within a single possession and set everything else up. The second key to what transpired was that Gregg Popovich kept all three of his timeouts for the last 13 seconds, allowing San Antonio to go for the proverbial "quick two" twice--intentionally on a great play that freed Manu Ginobili on a cut at the rim and then accidentally when Ginobili stepped on the three-point line while draining a shot that broke the scale in terms of degree of difficulty.

After all that, the Spurs took over down three with 1.7 seconds left. The defensive situation here is obvious; a two-point shot is meaningless, since there's no way San Antonio would have time for another possession, especially without another timeout. Of all people, it appeared to be Shane Battier who made the mental mistake for the Memphis Grizzlies. As Greg Anthony neatly dissected on the NBA TV postgame show, Battier should have switched the screen set by Tim Duncan for Gary Neal since Duncan was no immediate threat standing inside the three-point line. Instead, O.J. Mayo had to fight over the pick, giving Neal just enough airspace to tie the game with a three. (Incidentally, I don't think Lionel Hollins made a mistake by not ordering his team to foul. With so little time, a catch-and-shoot scenario was very likely, making the risk of a shooting foul too great.)

In overtime, the Spurs controlled the action behind Tony Parker's command of the pick-and-roll. Parker hit two jumpers and a pullup, while Antonio McDyess tipped in one of his misses at the rim to account for all the scoring San Antonio would need. All night, the Spurs turned the offense over to Parker and Ginobili, which seems like an appropriate adjustment given the way San Antonio has defended the three-point line. That means conceding something, and that weakness is slightly less help available when Parker and Ginobili get into the lane. If Tim Duncan can't score on Marc Gasol one-on-one--and he was scoreless in the second half Wednesday--Parker and Ginobili are going to have to take over. Parker was especially good at taking care of the basketball against Memphis' pressure as the Spurs had their lowest turnover percentage since Game One.

Despite all that, the Grizzlies were an answered prayer away from ending this series in five games on the road. That's how well Memphis continues to play. The Grizzlies have to be considered the solid favorites to end this series Friday back at home.

at Miami 97, Philadelphia 91 (Miami wins 4-1)
Pace: 84.2
Offensive Ratings: Miami 117.5, Philadelphia 105.9

Give the Philadelphia 76ers for fighting all the way to the final buzzer of what was a surprisingly competitive five-game series. The Sixers still clung to hope of extending the series when they took over with 16 seconds left down three. Philadelphia opted to play for the quick two, but ended up with Andre Iguodala taking a difficult pull-up jumper from the top of the key. That's the problem I have with announcers who instinctively favor the quick two. Too often, it's not a layup like the Spurs got late off a set play but a shot little higher percentage than a three attempt would be.

From a strategic perspective, the most interesting aspect of the game was Erik Spoelstra finally going away from his established starting lineup. After playing the game's first four minutes, Mike Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas never returned. Joel Anthony played nearly the entire second half, getting a two-minute rest courtesy of Juwan Howard and leaving briefly for an offense-defense platoon but otherwise planting himself in the paint to protect the rim. The Miami Heat was +17 with Anthony on the floor and, per Brian Windhorst on Twitter, +72 with him in this series. Anthony was a defensive difference maker throughout and even came up with two key free throws in the final minute.

Miami's interior defense is so much tougher with Anthony in the game that I think Spoelstra has to consider going with him as the starter in the next round against the Boston Celtics, though Zydrunas Ilgauskas should be able to contribute more in that series with his pick-and-pop game. Meanwhile, there's no good defensive matchup for Bibby against the Boston backcourt, so expect to see more of Mario Chalmers, who had 20 points and made six three-pointers despite sitting much of the fourth quarter in favor of James Jones' floor spacing.

It will be interesting to see what's next for the 76ers. Despite some health issues during the season, Doug Collins said after the game that he'll be back. Philadelphia must try to re-sign sixth man Thaddeus Young, a restricted free agent, and is unlikely to add much to the roster. Any growth will primarily have to come from within. Despite a 2-for-10 shooting night in the finale, this was an encouraging series for Evan Turner. Turner spent much of the fourth quarter defending LeBron James with reasonable success, grabbed 10 rebounds and was able to get to the rim before running into trouble with Anthony and the Heat's other help defenders. I've been pessimistic about Turner's future, but it's far too early to write him off.

at Oklahoma City 100, Denver 97 (Oklahoma City wins 4-1)
Pace: 95.9
Offensive Ratings: Oklahoma City 105.8, Denver 99.8

Unfortunately, this series did not last as long as we hoped, but it packed plenty of entertainment in five games, culminating in the Oklahoma City Thunder's series-ending comeback Wednesday night. Down nine with 3:23 left to play, Oklahoma City jumped on Kevin Durant's back and rode him to the second round. Durant scored 14 points on the Thunder's final eight possessions (all of them scores) while also finding time to assist a James Harden three-pointer in that span. Yes, it's safe to say going to Durant worked better than Russell Westbrook's star turn in Oklahoma City's Game Four loss.

The Denver Nuggets did not have an answer for Durant, and George Karl tried about everything short of putting Nenê on him (which actually took place early in the fourth quarter). Arron Afflalo got the first crack, but Afflalo simply gives up too much size. Durant was able to pull up for a relatively clean and then post Afflalo for a fadeaway that would be impossible for virtually anyone else in the league but is routine for him. Kenyon Martin took a crack, but was called for a ticky-tack foul for defending Durant too physically. Wilson Chandler got the final call, and Chandler's physical denial forced the Thunder to take a timeout and set something up with 15 seconds left. Alas, when Chandler overplayed the inbound pass, Durant freed himself for a pullup jumper to produce the final margin.

The Nuggets still might have been able to hold on had they scored more than one field goal (a Kenyon Martin tip) in the final four and a half minutes. But while Denver was able to get to the line, scoring from the field proved a more difficult proposition. You might attribute that to the Nuggets lacking a go-to scorer after trading Carmelo Anthony, but really Denver got good looks, running mirror-image pick-and-rolls for point guards Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson on either side of the floor, often one after another.

Instead, the problem was what is quickly becoming one of the league's most formidable interior defenses. Paired with Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka has taken his help defense to another level. He was credited with nine blocks Wednesday, while Oklahoma City had 14 as a team, including Durant swatting away J.R. Smith's attempt to tie in the closing seconds. Going into Game Five, per StatsCube, the Nuggets were shooting just 51 percent at the rim. Ibaka reduced that number by meeting Nenê at the summit late in the game and ushering away a series of other shot attempts.

Where the Thunder briefly struggled was when Scott Brooks went small to match up with Denver, putting Durant at power forward. Oklahoma City was outscored by three with that configuration on the floor, then rallied when Ibaka returned to the game. Ibaka needed to rest, certainly, but with Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed the Thunder has enough options to stay big when he's on the bench.

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Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.