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Trend: Rajon Rondo's shooting slump
Then: Between March 13 and March 25, Rondo shot 29.2 percent from the field and had a difficult time finishing at the rim.
Now: The Boston Celtics gave Rondo the night off March 27 to rest an injured pinkie finger, and he returned revitalized for the stretch run. For the rest of the season, Rondo was close to his usual self. While this showed up most dramatically in his shooting percentage, it also affected the rest of his game.
Stretch 2P% FTA% A40
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Through March 11 .515 .059 12.6
March 13-25 .313 .037 8.9
After March 28 .500 .085 11.0
Rondo's two-point percentage rebounded to 50.0 percent. Meanwhile, he actually got to the free throw line more frequently over the season's final two weeks than he had early in the season, let alone during his slump--when he attempted just eight free throws in as many games. It surely did not hurt that Rondo's percentage at the line (68.0 percent) was up slightly late in the season.
Both of those facts point toward Rondo attacking the basket more aggressively, and the numbers bear that out. Per Hoopdata.com, 55 percent of Rondo's shot attempts have been at the rim in the past two weeks. That's far more than during his slump (33 percent) and even better than he managed through mid-March (43 percent).
In turn, those drives have opened up passing lanes. Rondo's assist rate fell off badly when he was misfiring as a shooter. He's still not handing out assists quite as frequently recently, but his 11.0 assists per 40 minutes would still rank third in the NBA this season.
What it means: The breakdown of the Celtics' performance over the same periods is equally intriguing.
Stretch ORtg DRtg Net
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Through March 11 0.4 6.5 6.9
March 13-25 -7.4 10.6 3.2
After March 28 -1.0 3.0 2.0
Adjusted for opponent, Boston's offense was 7.4 points worse per 100 possessions than league average during Rondo's slump, which is hardly surprising given his key role in the team's attack. Since then, it has bounced back. Take out the last two games of the regular season, which Rondo sat out to get additional rest going into the postseason, and the Celtics' offense was better down the stretch than it was early in the season. However, the defense--which had carried Boston while Rondo was scuffling--collapsed. This might be some statistical evidence of the Celtics missing Kendrick Perkins' defensive presence in the paint.
Rondo should be fine. It's not entirely clear whether the same could be said of Boston as a team.
Trend: The (successful) scoring point guard
Then: As a group, point guards were using a higher percentage of their teams' plays than any other positions and had their highest usage rate dating to 1999-00.
Now: Nothing changed the rest of the season, as point guards ended up with a collective 21.1 percent usage rate--ahead of 20.7 percent for both shooting guards and power forwards.
What it means: By all accounts, Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose is the heavy favorite to be named MVP later during the postseason. If so, it would seem to represent a turning point of sorts in the evaluation of score-first point guards. Not since Bob Cousy in 1956-57 has a point guard won the MVP without averaging double-figure assists. Cousy's value was hardly tied up in his scoring; he led the league in assists that season, but totals were lower back then. Rose averaged just 7.7 assists, which ranked 10th in the league, but was seventh in scoring (25.0 ppg).
Historically, it has been difficult to build an elite team around a high-scoring point guard. Rose and Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook (21.9 ppg) are challenging that notion. That could have important implications as teams hunt for the next great star at the point. Duke's Kyrie Irving balances passing and scoring well, but players like Kentucky's Brandon Knight and Connecticut's Kemba Walker are scorers first and passers second. A decade ago, that might have been held against them in a way that no longer makes sense.
Trend: Lakers run after the break
Then: Andrew Bynum's powerful play at both ends of the floor, particularly anchoring the defense, led the Lakers to a 16-1 start after the All-Star break.
Now: Even as the column was being written, the Lakers were losing at home to the Denver Nuggets. That was the start of an unexpected five-game losing streak. While the Lakers won their final two games to hang on to second place in the Western Conference, they needed overtime to beat the lowly Sacramento Kings on the last night of the season.
Scoring was the biggest problem for the Lakers in their losses. Their defense was excellent against the Nuggets and the Utah Jazz, but the Lakers simply could not make anything from the field in those two games or against the Golden State Warriors in the Bay Area. However, the defense let the Lakers down against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home, when Oklahoma City shot 55.6 percent from the field.
Still, the Lakers' biggest concern during the season's final week was the condition of Bynum's right knee. He hyperextended the knee when he slipped awkwardly against the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday and was in obvious pain. Fortunately for the Lakers, Bynum did no damage to his ligaments in the fall. After an MRI, he was diagnosed with a bone bruise and cleared to play this weekend.
What it means: Bynum's injury scare was the latest reminder why the Lakers can't count on him to carry them the way he did after the All-Star break. The team's lack of frontcourt depth is a major concern in this postseason. Theo Ratliff has played just five minutes since returning after knee surgery, while rookie Derrick Caracter has yet to earn Phil Jackson's trust. As a result, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom played a combined 92 minutes against the Kings on a night when most playoff teams were resting their starters. The Lakers can't rely on them so heavily over multiple playoff games, so they need Bynum to stay healthy.
Trend: Denver's dynamic defense
Then: The Nuggets started off hot after trading Carmelo Anthony by virtue of lockdown defense.
Now: Denver's defense cooled a bit in the season's final week, when the Nuggets coasted to wins over the Golden State Warriors and the Minnesota Timberwolves on the strength of hot shooting. That meant Denver's performance ended up a bit more balanced. Adjusted for opposition, the Nuggets were 4.0 points better than average on offense per 100 possessions and 5.6 points better than average on defense. As compared to full-season performances by other teams, that would have put Denver third in the NBA in offense and tied for third on defense.
What it means: The Nuggets showed the ability to win with multiple styles after the deadline, going 17-7. The only problem was that two of those seven losses came to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the season's final 10 days. No wonder Denver coach George Karl openly admitted he would prefer to play the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs rather than the Thunder.
Looking ahead, the Nuggets have some decisions to make this summer. As many as five members of the Denver rotation could become free agents if center Nenê opts out of the last year of his contract. Guard J.R. Smith and forward Kenyon Martin are unrestricted free agents, while guard Arron Afflalo and forward Wilson Chandler will be restricted. Whether the Nuggets can re-sign everyone and retain the depth that has made them so tough on both ends of the floor may depend on the provisions of the new CBA.
Trend: Timberwolves' frontcourt takes off
Then: At various points during the first month of the season, we highlighted Minnesota starters Michael Beasley, Kevin Love and Darko Milicic. Our conclusions: Beasley was unlikely to keep scoring efficiently, Love had added a three-point dimension to his game and Milicic needed to continue his strong play for more time to convince skeptics.
Now: Beasley averaged a career-high 19.2 points per game, but as a full-time small forward his game became heavily perimeter-oriented. Beasley attempted 5.5 attempts per game from 16-23 feet, ranking him ninth in the league. It is difficult to shoot a high percentage while relying heavily on long twos, the most inefficient shot in the game. Beasley made 46.3 percent of his two-point attempts and had a .510 True Shooting Percentage, well below the league average of .541.
Love's All-Star season was built primarily on his work on the glass, but his long-range shooting was an underrated aspect of his value. He made 88 three-pointers at a 41.7 percent clip, which was good for 14th in the NBA. On a team lacking long-range shooting, the addition to Love's game was useful. Only rookie Wesley Johnson made more triples for the Timberwolves.
As for Milicic, his productive week in late November ultimately proved to be a fluke. Milicic played a career-high 24.4 minutes per game, but his inaccurate shooting (46.9 percent on twos) and invisible rebounding meant he rated no better than replacement level.
What it means: Minnesota GM David Kahn must tread lightly with Beasley, who will be eligible for a contract extension this summer if the NBA's next collective bargaining agreement doesn't change things dramatically. The combination of Beasley's age and prolific scoring may seduce Kahn into thinking he is a budding star worth a lucrative contract, but his numbers don't justify that position. Center is a position the Timberwolves could upgrade during the offseason, but given Kahn's strong belief in Milicic--and his position that the talent he's amassed has been underutilized by the Minnesota coaching staff--that seems unlikely.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider  .
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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