|
Naturally, most of the attention on this week's blockbuster trades has focused on what the New Jersey Nets and New York Knicks will look like after dealing for Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony, respectively. On the other end of those trades, however, are two teams that are in the playoff chase in the Western Conference. Can the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz still compete for the postseason without their former stars, or are they lottery-bound?
Utah's first game without Williams was an ugly 118-99 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, but it's tough to take much away from that game. Since newcomers Devin Harris and Derrick Favors had yet to join the team and backup guard Ronnie Price was sidelined with a sprained right big toe, the Jazz had only Earl Watson available at the point guard position. Watson shot 3-of-11 from the field and turned the ball over four times, while C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirilenko were forced to split ballhandling duties during the 11 minutes Watson sat out.
In Harris, Utah has replaced Williams with a point guard who is just two years removed from being an All-Star in the Eastern Conference. Though Harris has struggled to maintain that level of play and ended up falling out of favor in New Jersey, he remains an average starter at the point. Over a full season, the difference in value between Williams and Harris is about eight games based on Basketball Prospectus' wins above replacement player statistic. Over the rest of the schedule, that should translate to about two or three wins the Jazz lost by swapping Williams for Harris.
The biggest problem for the Jazz is that even with Williams at the point, Utah had not been very good recently. The team has dropped its past five games, leaving Tyrone Corbin winless since replacing Jerry Sloan two weeks ago. Long before the coaching change, all the trends were negative in Salt Lake City. Since peaking at 14 games above .500, Utah has gone 4-14. And even when the Jazz were winning two-thirds of their games, the team's point differential never matched its record.
If there is reason for optimism, it is the size Utah stands to add the rest of the way. Just 19 years of age, Favors was coveted for his potential and not his production. However, he has already proved to be an effective rebounder and shot blocker who can help the Jazz off the bench. At some point in March, Utah should get Mehmet Okur back in the lineup, after he is finished dealing with a strained lower back. Even hampered by injury, Okur has been far more effective than Utah's other 7-footers, Francisco Elson and Kyrylo Fesenko.
An optimistic assessment would project the Jazz going .500 the rest of the way. Even that may be enough to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Surely, part of Utah's thinking in dealing Williams was the team's fading postseason hopes. As of yesterday morning, John Hollinger's Playoff Odds gave the Jazz just a one-in-four chance (25.9 percent, to be exact) of reaching the playoffs. The simulation suggests 44 wins will probably be needed to claim the eighth seed, and that would require Utah to go 13-11 over the final 24 games of the season.
The Nuggets' playoff prospects are much better, starting with the fact that they are in better shape in the standings. After stealing a key win over the Memphis Grizzlies with just nine players active, Denver has a two-game cushion over the ninth-place Jazz. The Nuggets can get to 44 wins with just 11 victories in their final 24 games. Unlike Utah, Denver has actually been better than its record thus far. Adjusted for schedule, the Nuggets have been 2.5 points per game better than average, which puts them fifth in the Western Conference.
Denver also has some interesting talent on hand after the trade. The Nuggets' biggest weakness is that, without Anthony and Chauncey Billups, they lack star power and a go-to scorer they can rely on to get a bucket. At the same time, Denver has no shortage of capable players. The Nuggets already had one of the league's better benches before adding three starters from the Knicks in Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton and Danilo Gallinari.
This balance is evident looking at Denver's PER ratings. The Nuggets have seven players with a PER of 14.9 or better (average is 15.0), and that doesn't even count starting shooting guard Arron Afflalo, whose 13.7 PER belies his ability as a defensive specialist. By using a large rotation and playing up-tempo basketball in the high altitude of the Pepsi Center (where the team is 23-7 this season), George Karl can wear out opponents.
Player PER
------------------------
Nenê 21.2
Raymond Felton 17.3
Ty Lawson 16.8
Wilson Chandler 15.8
Danilo Gallinari 15.7
J.R. Smith 15.5
Chris Andersen 14.9
All this analysis comes with a crucial asterisk--it requires Denver not making any more moves before the trade deadline. Starting center Nenê is the Nuggets' best remaining player but also has the ability to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, so he could be on the move if Denver fails to make any progress on negotiations for a long-term extension. If Masai Ujiri stands pat, however, there's no reason to believe that the Nuggets' playoff hopes automatically followed Anthony out of town.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider  .
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
| 
Poll Position (02/24)
0 comments have been left for this article. 
