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February 18, 2011
The Shootaround
Will Gay's injury sink the Grizzlies?

by Bradford Doolittle

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HEADLINER

During TNT's broadcast of the Mavericks-Suns game on Thursday, color analyst Steve Kerr (who, incidentally, was Phoenix's GM last season) declared that the Suns were a good bet to make the postseason despite currently standing 10th in the Western Conference, 2 1/2 games back of Memphis and Utah. Kerr's reasoning was superficially logical. The Suns seem to be coalescing after the big December trade that brought Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus over from Orlando. Phoenix had won seven of nine before Thursday's home loss to Dallas and had moved above .500 for the first time in more than two months.

The Suns do indeed seem to be getting it together. Their hot streak included wins over Boston and Oklahoma City, as well as two victories over the Jazz. Kerr also pointed at Utah and Denver's recent struggles, which are undeniable. He didn't mention that the Nuggets may be trading away its core in the next few days, but that might factor in as well. Kerr also mentioned the Grizzlies, who have won 12 of their last 15 games, and kind of dismissed them out of hand because of the recent injury to Rudy Gay. I think this is a mistake.

According to the team, Gay suffered a "left shoulder subluxation" during Wednesday's win in Memphis over Philadelphia. A subluxation is basically a fancy term for a dislocation. The Grizzlies say Gay can begin rehabbing the injury in a week and will be re-evaluated in four weeks. Let's say that the prognosis is accurate and after that four-week period, Gay is cleared to return to action. That would mark his return to game action as March 17, when the Grizzlies visit Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks. He would end up missing 11 games during that span.

Memphis has some tough games coming up, so it's true that it's not the best time to be at less than full strength. The first game after the All-Star break is at Denver, and depending on how the Carmelo Anthony situation is resolved and the timing of that resolution, it's quite possible Memphis will be facing a depleted roster. After that, the Grizzlies go to Minnesota, then return home to face Sacramento. It's not hard to envision Memphis winning all three of those games, Rudy Gay or not.

From there, Memphis goes to San Antonio, a tough chore no matter who is starting at small forward. That's the front end of a back-to-back with the Spurs. New Orleans, a struggling team of late, comes to Memphis, then comes a trip to Dallas, visits from the Thunder and Knicks, and a sojourn to South Beach. The last game in the stretch, if Gay returns on schedule, is a home affair against the Clippers. Yep, it's a tough slate, but there are a couple of nights for Lionel Hollins' team to catch its breath. Even if Memphis finishes the Gay-less period by losing all of the games in which it'll be an underdog, the Grizzlies could still go 6-5. That'd leave them six games over .500 and still in excellent position once Gay returns.

Perhaps most importantly, I don't expect there to be a dramatic dropoff with Gay out of the lineup. The Grizzlies are a deeper team than they were last year, particularly on the wings. Not only did they add Tony Allen during the offseason, but they recently got O.J. Mayo back from a PED-induced suspension. Best of all, while Mayo was away, second-year swingman Sam Young blossomed into a useful player. Also, don't forget about rookie Xavier Henry, who has mostly struggled but has had his moments, and athletic wing Rodney Carney, signed on Thursday to a 10-day contract just in case.

With Gay out, the Memphis defense will likely improve a bit because of the increased minutes to Allen. (Though Gay is improved on that end.) And Gay's absence will be a golden opportunity for Mayo to re-assume a useful place in Hollins' rotation. He can fill the offensive gap in lieu of Gay. Would Memphis be better with Gay than without? Absolutely. But just because he's out, doesn't mean the Grizzlies will go to pieces. Teams are like amoebas that you can fire at and blow a whole through, but they quickly come back together in a different configuration. Sometimes the new arrangement works out a lot better than you would have thought. When it comes to basketball, five minus one does not necessary equal four.

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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

The Clipboard: Jazz Lack Pizzazz on the Boards (by Sebastian Pruiti): A big part of Utah's decline this season has been a poor showing on the defensive glass. Sebastian uses video, images and good, old-fashioned text to explain why this has happened. (premium)

Around the Rim: Selection Committee's Criteria (by John Perrotto): Gene Smith, the new chairman of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, discusses the process by which the new 68-team field for this year's tourney will be chosen. (premium)

Madness Comes Early: BracketBusters Preview (by John Gasaway): George Mason, Utah State, Wichita State, Valparaiso, Missouri State, and Saint Mary's are among the mid-majors who'll be in action this weekend as part of BracketBusters 2011. In his preview for ESPN Insider, John picks his five favorite match-ups. (premium)

Opposite Directions: Blazers, Hornets Head to Break (by Kevin Pelton): Less than two weeks ago, the Hornets led Blazers by 5.5 games, but the two teams have since gone in opposite directions. Wednesday's win allowed Portland to tie New Orleans in the standings. (free)

Ricky Rubio's Development: Checking In (by Kevin Pelton): The Minnesota Timberwolves are counting on Ricky Rubio developing into a star point guard, but his progress has apparently halted this season. What do the numbers tell us about Rubio's future?

Poll Position: Notre Dame's New and Improved (by John Gasaway): The Fighting Irish haven't been to the Sweet 16 in eight years, but in his feature for ESPN Insider John says Mike Brey's team may rewrite that history next month.

Two Teams, One Bid: The NEC (by Asher Fusco): Asher checks in on the Northeast Conference and finds Long Island and Central Connecticut State perched atop the league. Can either team win a tournament game next month?

The Clipboard: Baby is Big Enough (by Sebastian Pruiti) Despite going against taller defenders on a nightly basis, Boston's Glen Davis has become a master of finishing at the rim. (premium)

Trend Watch: Foye, Mavs' Streak, Coaching Changes (by Kevin Pelton): Trend Watch considers Randy Foye's play as a starter, takes the air out of the Dallas Mavericks' 10-game winning streak and looks at the trends for midseason coaching changes. (premium)

Mini Truths: What to Make of the MAAC? (by Asher Fusco): Fairfield's atop the MAAC in both the standings and in per-possession terms, but Iona and St. Peter's aren't far behind. Asher takes stock of the MAAC in February and looks ahead toward March. (free)

Follow Unfiltered, the Basketball Prospectus blog.

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FANTASY PROJECTIONS

Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated weekly and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the seven days, Monday through Sunday, for every player, game-by-game projections, health status updates and current team rotations. (Current projections will reflect week of Feb. 7-13 but are pending due to our recent server switch.)

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HOOPS CHATS

Basketball Prospectus authors take your questions from time to time in always-popular chat format. All chats begin at 1 p.m. EST on the day listed (unless noted), but you can go in and submit a question beforehand if you like, or read the transcript after the fact.

UPCOMING, 12 p.m. EST, Feb 24: John Gasaway

Feb. 3: Kevin Pelton (TRANSCRIPT)

Jan. 28: Bradford Doolittle (TRANSCRIPT)

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HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)      GR (02/16-17)                 WP82 -- ALL         WP82 -- ROOKIES
San Antonio Spurs, 63.1 ellis,monta (WED), 50.9       james,lebron, 26.2  griffin,bl., 13.8
Boston Celtics, 58.4    hibbert,roy (WED), 40.8       rose,derrick, 20.6  wall,john, 4.8
Miami Heat, 58.1        james,lebron (WED), 39.1      paul,chris, 20.1    neal,gary, 4.4
Chicago Bulls, 56.7     miller,andre (WED), 36.7      gasol,pau, 18.8     fields,landry, 4.3
Dallas Mavericks, 55.4  aldridge,lamarcus (WED), 36.4 howard,dwight, 18.7 turner,evan, 3.3
Note: GR leaders are from previous two nights only.

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LEADERBOARD

HOOPS LIST, ALL-STAR BREAK EDITION
TEAM, POW                          TEAM, POW
 1. San Antonio Spurs, 63.1        16. New York Knicks, 42.0
 2. Boston Celtics, 58.4           17. Houston Rockets, 41.1
 3. Miami Heat, 58.1               18. Phoenix Suns, 40.7
 4. Chicago Bulls, 56.7            19. Indiana Pacers, 38.0
 5. Dallas Mavericks, 55.4         20. Golden State Warriors, 36.3
 6. Orlando Magic, 54.2            21. Milwaukee Bucks, 34.7
 7. Los Angeles Lakers, 53.6       22. Charlotte Bobcats, 33.8
 8. Oklahoma City Thunder, 50.8    23. Los Angeles Clippers, 31.0
 9. New Orleans Hornets, 48.8      24. Detroit Pistons, 29.8
10. Denver Nuggets, 45.9           25. Toronto Raptors, 23.5
11. Memphis Grizzlies, 45.3        26. New Jersey Nets, 23.5
12. Portland Trail Blazers, 44.9   27. Sacramento Kings, 23.3
13. Atlanta Hawks, 43.9            28. Minnesota Timberwolves, 22.3
14. Philadelphia 76ers, 42.4       29. Washington Wizards, 21.6
15. Utah Jazz, 42.2                30. Cleveland Cavaliers, 14.8

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WEDNESDAY'S RESULTS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

MAGIC 101, WIZARDS 76 (box): Orlando's Dwight Howard scored 32 points on 15 shots for his third 30-plus scoring game in four outings as he moved into fifth place on the WP82 leaderboard.

WAS (15-39).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  ORL (37-20).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
wall,john............81%  31%  0.98  -22 23.0  howard,dwight........60%  35%  1.40  +25 27.4
hinrich,kirk.........65%  14%  1.19  -15 16.4  richardson,jason.....60%  22%  1.44  +21 26.1
blatche,andray.......65%  33%  0.69  -21 12.2  anderson,ryan........59%  19%  1.30  +18 20.5
howard,josh..........51%  22%  0.41  -16  7.1  bass,brandon.........70%  21%  1.09  + 7 10.9
seraphin,kevin.......38%  11%  0.98  - 5  6.2  turkoglu,hedo........62%  13%  0.87  +11  8.7
shakur,mustafa.......11%  34%  0.94    0  4.7  nelson,jameer........49%  17%  1.40  +13  7.2
martin,cartier.......63%  18%  0.56  -16  4.6  arenas,gilbert.......51%  16%  0.66  +12  5.0
booker,trevor........45%   2%  3.34  - 7  3.1  redick,j.j...........60%  12%  1.01  +22  4.3
thornton,al.......... 8%  11%  2.24  - 3  2.8  duhon,chris.......... 8%  25%  0.36  - 4  0.4
mcgee,javale.........28%  28%  0.48  -18  2.4  richardson,quentin...11%  17%  0.14    0  0.4
jianlian,yi..........28%   4%  0.37    0  0.8  clark,earl...........11%  17%  0.13    0  0.2
armstrong,hilton.....17%   3%  0.65  - 2  0.4  allen,malik..........(DNP)  
PACE: 90.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 90.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Wizards..........   83.6 .367  .240 .165 .111  Magic............  111.1 .494  .205 .099 .102

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HEAT 103, RAPTORS 95 (box): Dwyane Wade (28), Chris Bosh (25) and LeBron James (23) were the three Heat in double figures as Miami overcame Andrea Bargnani's 38-point onslaught in Bosh's return to the Air Canada Centre.

MIA (41-15).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  TOR (15-41).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
james,lebron.........78%  33%  1.07  + 6 39.1  bargnani,andrea......82%  37%  1.14  -10 32.2
bosh,chris...........80%  27%  1.04  +12 20.0  derozan,demar........87%  26%  0.95  - 8 22.5
wade,dwyane..........83%  31%  1.01  +10 18.2  calderon,jose........72%  12%  1.64  - 9 15.4
house,eddie..........52%  16%  1.13  + 2 13.4  johnson,amir.........54%  20%  0.89  -12  8.4
chalmers,mario.......59%   4%  3.45  + 6  9.5  barbosa,leandro......55%  13%  0.96  + 3  8.0
dampier,erick........58%   6%  2.48  + 1  6.6  davis,ed.............47%  13%  1.58  - 1  6.8
arroyo,carlos........33%  10%  0.83  - 2  3.9  bayless,jerryd.......31%  17%  0.65  + 1  5.7
ilgauskas,zydrunas...25%  22%  0.72  + 7  2.4  ajinca,alexis........22%  21%  1.09  + 6  3.5
anthony,joel.........17%   6%  1.71    0  1.1  weems,sonny..........49%   3%  1.39  -10  2.6
jones,james..........15%   6%  0.00  - 2  0.0  dorsey,joey..........(DNP)  
howard,juwan.........(DNP)                     johnson,trey.........(DNP)  
magloire,jamaal......(DNP)                     wright,julian........(DNP)  
PACE: 90.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 90.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Heat.............  114.1 .507  .250 .166 .180  Raptors..........  105.2 .448  .220 .100 .097

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CELTICS 94, NETS 80 (box): The Nets stayed close for 3 1/2 quarters before a game-closing 14-2 run by the Celtics restored order to the proceedings.

NJN (17-40).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  BOS (40-14).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
lopez,brook..........77%  30%  0.83  - 5 21.9  pierce,paul..........69%  38%  1.11  +19 27.2
harris,devin.........63%  26%  1.15  - 6 19.4  garnett,kevin........68%  25%  1.01  +15 21.3
morrow,anthony.......61%  27%  0.94  - 5 17.8  rondo,rajon..........76%   9%  2.06  +13 13.5
farmar,jordan........39%  23%  0.88  - 3  9.2  wafer,von............42%  10%  1.83    0 13.3
humphries,kris.......45%  14%  0.86  -14  7.2  allen,ray............78%  15%  1.17  +16 10.2
vujacic,sasha........61%  13%  0.95  -14  5.6  perkins,kendrick.....57%  15%  0.70  +12  6.0
favors,derrick.......39%   5%  2.39  + 1  3.9  davis,glen...........45%  17%  0.45  + 6  5.6
ross,quinton.........54%   8%  1.49  - 4  3.8  robinson,nate........31%  23%  0.64  - 5  5.5
outlaw,travis........31%   6%  2.47  - 7  3.0  harangody,luke.......30%  27%  0.86  - 5  4.9
petro,johan..........22%  32%  0.31  -11  1.7  bradley,avery........ 4%  23%  1.80  - 1  2.6
graham,stephen....... 3%  38%  0.25  - 1  0.2  erden,semih..........(DNP)  
uzoh,ben............. 3%  72%  0.00  - 1  0.0  o'neal,shaquille.....(DNP)  
PACE: 85.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 85.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Nets.............   93.8 .425  .317 .176 .077  Celtics..........  110.2 .444  .237 .105 .201

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CAVALIERS 104, LAKERS 99 (box): Despite 30 points and 20 rebounds from Pau Gasol, the Lakers could not overcome Ramon Sessions' 32 points and Anthony Parker's stellar effort on Kobe Bryant as L.A. goes into the break off a blowout loss at Charlotte and a defeat at lowly Cleveland.

LAL (38-19).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  CLE (10-46).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
gasol,pau............85%  23%  1.59  + 1 28.2  parker,anthony.......71%  20%  1.61  + 9 30.7
fisher,derek.........69%  15%  1.71  -14 24.2  sessions,ramon.......76%  31%  1.42  + 8 23.7
brown,shannon........55%  25%  1.15  - 3 21.6  hickson,j.j..........84%  23%  0.87  + 2 23.4
odom,lamar...........73%   7%  2.08  - 1 13.7  eyenga,christian.....56%  12%  1.37  + 6 13.0
bryant,kobe..........80%  35%  0.67  + 5 10.9  jamison,antawn.......87%  20%  1.18  +11 12.8
bynum,andrew.........47%  31%  0.46  -11  5.9  moon,jamario.........44%   1%  4.90  - 3  5.7
blake,steve..........42%  10%  1.67  + 9  4.3  hollins,ryan.........29%  18%  1.07  - 3  4.8
artest,ron...........37%   4%  1.66  -13  2.0  gibson,daniel........46%  18%  0.55  - 7  3.2
walton,luke..........12%   8%  0.93  + 2  0.8  williams,maurice..... 7%  27%  0.00  + 2  0.0
caracter,derrick.....(DNP)                     gee,alonzo...........(DNP)  
ebanks,devin.........(DNP)                     graham,joey..........(DNP)  
smith,joe............(DNP)                     samuels,samardo......(DNP)  
PACE: 88.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 88.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Lakers...........  111.6 .454  .422 .169 .114  Cavaliers........  117.2 .500  .293 .101 .109

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PISTONS 115, PACERS 109, OT (box): After a late blitz helped the Pacers force overtime, Detroit held Indiana to 1-of-7 shooting in the extra period.

IND (24-30).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  DET (21-36).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
hibbert,roy..........78%  34%  1.03  - 4 40.8  stuckey,rodney.......54%  32%  1.12  +11 27.0
granger,danny........77%  27%  1.21  - 3 18.4  mcgrady,tracy........55%  22%  1.36  + 7 21.6
mcroberts,josh.......58%  14%  2.32  + 2 16.8  prince,tayshaun......74%  22%  1.43  + 2 16.8
jones,dahntay........27%  22%  1.70  - 5 10.2  wilcox,chris.........30%  24%  1.51  + 3 15.1
hansbrough,tyler.....40%  19%  0.92  - 9  7.7  bynum,will...........33%  21%  1.36  - 1 11.0
collison,darren......67%  18%  0.88  - 1  7.7  daye,austin..........53%  13%  0.90  + 8  9.0
rush,brandon.........34%  11%  1.97  + 2  7.6  gordon,ben...........58%  29%  0.83  - 4  8.4
price,a.j............33%  14%  1.15  - 5  4.5  monroe,greg..........63%  16%  1.17  - 1  6.9
dunleavy jr.,mike....42%   8%  1.10  - 3  2.8  villanueva,charlie...27%  15%  1.46  + 3  5.7
jones,solomon........22%  10%  0.61  - 1  1.0  wallace,ben..........53%   0%     -  + 2  2.4
george,paul..........23%  14%  0.00  - 3  0.0  maxiell,jason........(DNP)  
posey,james..........(DNP)                     summers,dajuan.......(DNP)  
PACE: 92.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 92.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Pacers...........  117.4 .538  .391 .162 .076  Pistons..........  123.9 .526  .378 .097 .090

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KNICKS 102, HAWKS 90 (box): A nice win for the Knicks heading into the break against a sliding Hawks team that has lost three of four.

ATL (34-21).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  NYK (28-26).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
williams,marvin......84%  17%  1.36  - 1 18.7  stoudemire,amare.....68%  38%  0.88  + 8 30.7
bibby,mike...........75%  13%  1.67  - 8 18.0  fields,landry........77%   8%  2.72  + 6 19.4
horford,al...........72%  19%  1.08  -10 15.3  felton,raymond.......76%  25%  0.99  +12 15.4
smith,josh...........84%  25%  0.68  -15 14.0  gallinari,danilo.....77%  17%  1.39  +13 12.7
johnson,joe..........69%  21%  1.04  - 9 12.6  chandler,wilson......73%  23%  1.16  +10 12.3
crawford,jamal.......53%  24%  0.54  -15  6.5  douglas,toney........32%  19%  1.23  + 1 10.9
teague,jeff.......... 8%  39%  1.62  + 6  5.3  mozgov,timofey.......29%   9%  1.54  + 2  4.4
evans,maurice........26%  15%  1.15  - 9  4.1  williams,shawne......22%  18%  1.45  + 3  3.5
pachulia,zaza........11%  26%  0.75  - 9  2.0  turiaf,ronny.........32%  11%  1.47  + 1  3.4
wilkins,damien.......10%   9%  1.05  + 4  1.7  walker,bill..........14%   7%  0.26  + 4  0.3
powell,josh.......... 8%  12%  1.92  + 6  1.4  mason,roger..........(DNP)  
collins,jason........(DNP)                     randolph,anthony.....(DNP)  
PACE: 90.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 90.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Hawks............   99.6 .506  .136 .166 .044  Knicks...........  112.9 .538  .158 .100 .102

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CLIPPERS 98, TIMBERWOLVES 90 (box): Blake Griffin scored 29 points for the road-weary Clippers while Kevin Love racked up another double-double with 18 points and 18 rebounds.

LAC (21-35).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  MIN (13-43).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
griffin,blake........95%  26%  1.14  + 9 24.0  ellington,wayne......61%  28%  1.09  + 1 26.2
foye,randy...........74%  24%  1.35  + 7 23.8  love,kevin...........68%  23%  1.27  -14 16.9
gomes,ryan...........79%  17%  1.37  + 7 23.2  ridnour,luke.........67%  21%  0.79  -21 16.1
bledsoe,eric.........62%  18%  1.28  - 3 14.7  milicic,darko........75%  20%  0.91  -20 15.1
davis,baron..........67%  17%  0.92  +10 12.1  tolliver,anthony.....39%  22%  1.07  +10  7.9
jordan,deandre.......63%   6%  1.63  +14  5.7  webster,martell......82%  11%  1.25  -12  6.8
kaman,chris..........20%  24%  1.07  + 1  3.0  telfair,sebastian....34%  20%  0.83  +13  3.8
diogu,ike............17%  35%  0.52  - 3  1.8  brewer,corey.........38%  15%  0.92  - 9  3.2
aminu,alfarouq.......21%  16%  0.59  + 1  1.2  pekovic,nikola.......15%  22%  1.38  + 6  3.1
cook,brian........... 3%  32%  0.00  - 3  0.0  johnson,wesley.......21%  16%  0.30  + 6  1.4
butler,rasual........(DNP)                     hayward,lazar........(DNP)  
gordon,eric..........(DNP)                     koufos,kosta.........(DNP)  
PACE: 89.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 89.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Clippers.........  109.5 .494  .256 .168 .152  Timberwolves.....  100.5 .396  .333 .101 .177

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MAVERICKS 116, KINGS 100 (box): Dallas cruised as no player played more than 27 minutes and eight players scored in double figures, including five off the bench.

SAC (13-40).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  DAL (39-16).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
taylor,jermaine......81%  16%  1.73  -13 31.4  terry,jason..........45%  26%  1.05  +28 19.2
cousins,demarcus.....80%  33%  0.77  + 2 16.9  haywood,brendan......46%  21%  1.30  +21 17.7
dalembert,samuel.....57%  19%  1.27  - 9 14.9  barea,jose...........42%  18%  2.40  + 6 17.2
landry,carl..........55%  16%  1.15  -14 14.9  kidd,jason...........59%  17%  2.50  + 9 16.9
udrih,beno...........67%  17%  1.78  -14 12.4  beaubois,rodrigue....44%  33%  1.15  - 2 16.6
casspi,omri..........48%  12%  1.48  + 4  8.7  nowitzki,dirk........47%  20%  1.58  +21 13.7
greene,donte.........48%  24%  1.19  -18  8.3  stojakovic,peja......56%  18%  1.29  + 5 13.4
jeter,pooh...........45%  21%  0.78  - 6  6.4  marion,shawn.........57%  23%  1.33  +17 11.6
thompson,jason.......18%   3%  4.07  - 9  1.4  chandler,tyson.......49%   9%  1.52  - 4  4.8
head,luther.......... 1%  78%  0.00  - 3  0.0  stevenson,deshawn....28%  21%  0.45  - 9  1.9
evans,tyreke.........(DNP)                     cardinal,brian.......13%   7%  0.83  - 7  0.7
jackson,darnell......(DNP)                     mahinmi,ian..........15%   4%  0.00  - 5  0.0
PACE: 86.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 86.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Kings............  115.4 .521  .324 .173 .173  Mavericks........  133.8 .628  .263 .104 .030

---

76ERS 114, ROCKETS 105 (box): Andre Iguodala shot 3-of-15 but posted a triple-double and his teammates shot a combined 45-of-72 (62.5 percent).

PHI (27-29).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  HOU (26-31).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
iguodala,andre.......76%  23%  1.24  +10 29.6  scola,luis...........82%  26%  1.18  - 5 29.2
williams,lou.........51%  32%  1.04  +12 20.0  lowry,kyle...........90%  19%  2.17  - 6 28.3
holiday,jrue.........77%  19%  1.53  - 2 15.4  martin,kevin.........71%  18%  0.81  - 7 18.8
turner,evan..........65%  13%  1.06  +14 15.0  patterson,patrick....32%  22%  1.43  - 7  7.8
hawes,spencer........56%  24%  1.25  + 4 13.5  battier,shane........74%  13%  0.91  - 9  7.6
young,thaddeus.......50%  29%  1.08  + 4 10.6  brooks,aaron.........38%  29%  0.71  - 5  6.3
brand,elton..........69%  11%  1.51  +12  9.7  hayes,chuck..........39%  21%  0.90  + 5  5.8
speights,marreese....23%  11%  1.82    0  7.2  miller,brad..........16%  27%  1.13  - 4  5.4
meeks,jodie..........33%   7%  0.00  - 9  0.0  budinger,chase.......38%  13%  0.25  + 2  1.3
kapono,jason.........(DNP)                     hill,jordan..........20%   5%  1.01  - 9  0.9
nocioni,andres.......(DNP)                     smith,ishmael........(DNP)  
songaila,darius......(DNP)                     williams,terrence....(DNP)  
PACE: 94.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 94.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
76ers............  121.0 .580  .282 .159 .084  Rockets..........  111.4 .510  .235 .085 .047

---

NUGGETS 94, BUCKS 87 (box): Carmelo Anthony scored 38 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and took 30 shots in 44 minutes in what may have been his final game for the Nuggets.

DEN (31-26).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  MIL (21-34).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
anthony,carmelo......92%  38%  0.98  +13 32.5  salmons,john.........88%  29%  1.10  -13 36.3
billups,chauncey.....75%  25%  1.03  +15 24.7  maggette,corey.......51%  31%  0.92  +10 13.0
martin,kenyon........74%  13%  1.53  +26 19.5  boykins,earl.........43%  15%  1.38  +18 12.2
hilario,nene.........55%  16%  0.89  + 7  9.8  bogut,andrew.........93%  12%  0.80  - 2 11.7
harrington,al........35%  16%  1.21  -12  4.8  delfino,carlos.......61%  19%  0.85  -13  6.9
andersen,chris.......36%  10%  0.96  - 7  4.4  jennings,brandon.....57%  22%  0.40  -25  4.1
smith,j.r............48%  14%  0.37  -12  1.9  sanders,larry........13%  40%  0.98  + 7  3.8
afflalo,arron........61%   9%  0.37  +13  1.2  mbahamoute,luc.......87%   9%  0.76  -12  3.8
lawson,ty............25%  16%  0.15  - 8  0.5  brockman,jon......... 7%  15%  0.00  - 5  0.0
carter,anthony.......(DNP)                     dooling,keyon........(DNP)  
forbes,gary..........(DNP)                     douglas-roberts,chris(DNP)  
williams,shelden.....(DNP)                     ilyasova,ersan.......(DNP)  
PACE: 94.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 94.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Nuggets..........   99.2 .480  .075 .158 .116  Bucks............   91.9 .406  .068 .095 .130

---

WARRIORS 107, JAZZ 100 (box): Monta Ellis scored 23 of his 35 points in the second half as Golden State handed Utah its fourth straight loss and 13 defeat in its last 17 games.

GSW (26-29).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  UTA (31-26).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
ellis,monta..........89%  35%  1.19  +10 50.9  williams,deron.......87%  24%  1.26  - 5 35.1
wright,dorell........80%  19%  1.55  + 4 21.1  jefferson,al.........85%  25%  1.05  - 4 29.8
williams,reggie......49%  16%  1.75  + 4 11.7  millsap,paul.........77%  20%  1.24  + 1 19.4
lee,david............65%  27%  0.69  - 7  9.5  miles,c.j............88%  21%  1.09  + 2 12.9
wright,brandan.......21%  20%  1.39  + 5  8.1  evans,jeremy.........21%  27%  1.25  -14  9.6
lin,jeremy...........14%  24%  1.67  + 4  6.8  watson,earl..........54%  11%  1.02  -12  3.5
bell,charlie.........36%   6%  2.53  +11  5.1  hayward,gordon.......70%  12%  0.54  - 4  2.8
curry,stephen........45%  19%  0.64  - 6  4.9  fesenko,kyrylo.......13%   6%  0.55  + 2  0.2
biedrins,andris......53%   8%  1.01  - 7  3.2  elson,francisco...... 5%  17%  0.00  - 1  0.0
udoh,epke............33%   4%  0.00  + 5  0.0  bell,raja............(DNP)  
bell,charlie.........(DNP)                     kirilenko,andrei.....(DNP)  
gadzuric,dan.........(DNP)                     price,ronnie.........(DNP)  
PACE: 88.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 88.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Warriors.........  121.2 .597  .189 .170 .110  Jazz.............  113.3 .474  .270 .102 .150

---

TRAIL BLAZERS 103, HORNETS 96 (box): LaMarcus Aldridge continued his hot streak into the break with 34 points on 13-of-18 shooting and Andre Miller helped limit Chris Paul to eight points on 2-of-6 shooting.

NWO (33-25).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  POR (32-24).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
ariza,trevor.........92%  19%  1.35  - 4 26.8  miller,andre.........84%  23%  1.10  +11 36.7
green,willie.........85%  26%  1.00  -12 21.7  aldridge,lamarcus....91%  29%  1.32  +13 36.4
jack,jarrett.........65%  16%  1.32  + 1 21.1  matthews,wesley......92%  20%  1.39  + 8 18.8
west,david...........95%  23%  1.11  -14 20.1  fernandez,rudy.......69%  19%  0.94  + 6 15.3
paul,chris...........87%  14%  0.88  - 5 12.1  batum,nicolas........87%  15%  1.25  +11 12.4
smith,jason..........35%  10%  1.15  - 8  7.9  cunningham,dante.....54%   6%  0.93  - 4  4.0
thornton,marcus......25%  30%  0.67  + 4  7.3  mills,patrick........14%  15%  1.22  - 4  2.7
gray,aaron........... 5%  23%  1.32  + 7  1.3  przybilla,joel....... 9%  10%  1.23  - 6  0.8
belinelli,marco......12%   6%  0.38  - 4  0.3  babbitt,luke.........(DNP)  
andersen,david.......(DNP)                     camby,marcus.........(DNP)  
ilungambenga,didier..(DNP)                     marks,sean...........(DNP)  
pondexter,quincy.....(DNP)                     roy,brandon..........(DNP)  
PACE: 81.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 81.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Hornets..........  118.5 .520  .361 .185 .130  Trail Blazers....  127.2 .574  .267 .111 .163

THURSDAY'S RESULTS

BULLS 109, SPURS 99 (box): Derrick Rose split his career-high 42 points evenly over both halves.

SAS (46-10).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  CHI (38-16).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
duncan,tim...........68%  19%  1.30  - 1 25.2  rose,derrick.........80%  41%  1.27  +15 32.5
parker,tony..........73%  33%  1.02  - 9 21.9  deng,luol............83%  18%  1.48  +18 24.7
neal,gary............46%  22%  1.66  - 4 14.7  boozer,carlos........60%  29%  0.87  + 4 20.5
ginobili,manu........66%  32%  0.77  -10 14.3  gibson,taj...........60%   9%  1.51  + 5 12.4
jefferson,richard....76%  10%  1.62  - 5 12.7  bogans,keith.........37%  10%  1.91  + 6  8.1
blair,dejuan.........41%  16%  0.84  - 6  8.1  korver,kyle..........39%  17%  0.76  - 3  7.8
hill,george..........36%  20%  0.98  - 2  7.7  brewer,ronnie........41%  16%  1.43  - 1  6.1
mcdyess,antonio......34%   5%  1.66  - 6  4.2  thomas,kurt..........50%   9%  1.09  + 4  4.7
bonner,matt..........54%   7%  0.63  - 7  4.2  watson,c.j...........20%  20%  1.19  - 5  4.3
quinn,chris.......... 2%  46%  0.68    0  0.9  asik,omer............30%   5%  1.76  + 7  4.3
novak,steve.......... 2%  46%  0.00    0  0.0  johnson,james........(DNP)  
splitter,tiago.......(DNP)                     scalabrine,brian.....(DNP)  
PACE: 86.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 86.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Spurs............  113.9 .531  .158 .092 .106  Bulls............  125.4 .575  .281 .115 .101

---

MAVERICKS 112, SUNS 106 (box): Dirk Nowitzki scored 35 points on 13-of-18 shooting and Dallas goes into the break having won 13 of its last 14 games, though the Mavericks still trail the Spurs by six games in the Western Conference.

DAL (40-16).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  PHX (27-27).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
nowitzki,dirk........78%  28%  1.52  +12 23.5  nash,steve...........76%  17%  1.73  + 8 26.8
terry,jason..........73%  20%  1.38  +16 21.6  carter,vince.........66%  19%  0.96  + 6 17.2
kidd,jason...........86%  10%  1.88  + 3 18.3  frye,channing........81%  20%  1.40  - 3 16.9
marion,shawn.........68%  15%  1.16  + 7 16.9  lopez,robin..........52%  19%  1.43  + 6 14.3
stojakovic,peja......42%  20%  1.25  + 2 12.1  hill,grant...........63%  24%  0.78  + 3 13.1
beaubois,rodrigue....40%  28%  0.74  - 7 11.2  pietrus,mickael......54%  22%  0.73  -12  8.3
chandler,tyson.......62%  17%  1.12  - 4  8.5  gortat,marcin........35%  24%  1.15  -10  7.0
stevenson,deshawn....28%  23%  0.60  - 1  6.6  dragic,goran.........24%  23%  1.09  -14  6.1
haywood,brendan......22%  24%  1.25  + 2  4.9  dudley,jared.........34%  10%  0.90  -12  4.4
barea,jose...........(DNP)                     warrick,hakim........15%  10%  1.40  - 2  2.8
cardinal,brian.......(DNP)                     childress,josh.......(DNP)  
mahinmi,ian..........(DNP)                     dowdell,zabian.......(DNP)  
PACE: 90.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 90.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Mavericks........  123.6 .585  .128 .088 .112  Suns.............  117.0 .536  .209 .110 .107

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from press releases around the league

NBA: Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors, Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls, John Wall of the Washington Wizards and Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder were selected by fans to compete against Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets in the 2011 Skills Challenge on Feb. 19, at Staples Center in Los Angeles.

NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden will replace injured Sacramento Kings guard Tyreke Evans (plantar fasciitis, left foot) on the Sophomore Team in the 2011 Rookie Challenge and Youth Jam. The Rookie Challenge & Youth Jam will be televised live nationally on TNT at 9 p.m. ET.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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ON TAP

Feb. 22 in the NBA

WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+11  atl @ lal, 10:30 PM EST [ lal by  8 ]
+ 8  mem @ den,  9:00 PM EST [ den by  6 ]
+ 3  bos @ gsw, 10:30 PM EST [ bos by  7 ]
  0  lac @ okc,  8:00 PM EST [ okc by 11 ]
- 1  min @ mil,  8:00 PM EST [ mil by  6 ]
- 2  sac @ mia,  7:30 PM EST [ mia by 18 ]
- 3  hou @ det,  7:30 PM EST [ hou by  1 ]
- 6  tor @ cha,  7:00 PM EST [ cha by  8 ]
- 7  ind @ was,  7:00 PM EST [ ind by  4 ]
Notes: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.
Referee assignments not available until 8 a.m. on Feb. 22.

Through Thursday, 835 of 1,230 games (67.9 percent) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

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GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

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