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February 7, 2011
The Shootaround
Celtics Assert Authority

by Bradford Doolittle

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NOTE: The Shootaround is a revamped and reborn version of the discontinued series 'PBP Roundup' which fell victim to overambition and unsustainability, kind of like ancient Rome. The Shootaround is more data heavy, is more fully automated behind the scenes and will focus more on a single story each day rather than attempting micro-analysis of every game and story. Hopefully, it will also prove to be more sustainable--fingers crossed. Like PBP Roundup, it will be a free feature.

HEADLINER

CELTICS 91, MAGIC 80 (box): In holding the Magic to 3-of-24 three-point shooting, the Celtics borrowed a page from former assistant coach Tom Thibodeau, now the main man in Chicago. The Bulls beat the Magic Jan. 28 by single-covering Dwight Howard in the paint and doing everything possible to run Orlando's three-point shooters off the line. Howard scored 40 points that night, but Orlando shot just 5-of-21 from the arc and posted less than a point per possession as the Bulls won by nine. Whether or not that game informed Doc Rivers' gameplan on Sunday, the Celtics put the same strategy into play.

Said Paul Pierce to reporters: "We had a number of how many threes we wanted to limit them to and we did more than reach our number tonight. ... We felt like Dwight couldn't beat us by himself."

The losses to the Bulls and Celtics marked the only two times in Orlando's last 10 games that the Magic have scored less than 1.06 points per possession. The losses also underscore the growing rift between the three teams on top of the East standings and the Magic. Orlando has struggled defensively since their December shakeup and if opponents now have a template for shutting down the Magic on the other end ... it could be a tough finish for Stan Van Gundy. At the same time, it could be great news for Dwight Howard's fantasy owners.

For the Celtics part, their methodical offensive approach was on full display. The Celtics took just 63 shots in the game--Orlando took 93--but were still barely outscored from the field. The Celtics moved the ball, pounded the paint, got to the line and completely ignored the offensive glass. Orlando outscored Boston 18-4 on second chance points and held a 16-4 edge on offensive rebounds. No matter. The Celtics are all about finding good shots, getting everybody involved and playing defense. Check, check and check.

On the downside, the Celtics lost wing reserve Marquis Daniels for at least a month when he collided with Orlando's Gilbert Arenas during the second quarter and injured his spine. Daniels was motionless on the court for several minutes and had to be carried off on a stretcher, with, which he was loaded directly into an ambulance and rushed to a Boston hospital. Thankfully, the injury wasn't of the permanent sort and Daniels should be back before the end of the season. His injury leaves Boston thin behind starters Ray Allen and Paul Pierce at the wing positions, at least until Delonte West returns in a couple of weeks. Von Wafer is the only backup at those spots right now, so look for Boston to play a lot of three-guard lineups when Pierce rests. Rookie point guard Avery Bradley will be brought back from the D-League to give Boston another body.

If the Celtics want to bring in another wing, they'll have to clear a roster spot, which might mean trouble for rookie Luke Harangody, who has the height of a wing player but not the build or the game. The Celtics have an exciting week ahead. After tonight's game at Charlotte, Boston hosts the Lakers on Thursday and the Heat on Sunday in a pair of nationally-televised contests.

ORL (33-19).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   BOS (38-12).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
howard,dwight........93%  24%  1.16  -10 33.5   rondo,rajon..........76%  35%  0.96  + 3 28.6
richardson,jason.....68%  13%  1.12  -10 12.7   pierce,paul..........87%  23%  0.87  +20 20.1
redick,j.j...........54%  21%  0.73  - 2 10.5   garnett,kevin........68%  23%  1.05  +17 17.9
anderson,ryan........67%  14%  1.21  - 2  9.7   allen,ray............84%  12%  1.14  + 8 13.1
turkoglu,hedo........51%  20%  0.58  - 5  6.2   davis,glen...........50%  23%  0.96  - 4  6.3
nelson,jameer........60%  22%  0.71  - 5  5.5   robinson,nate........24%  23%  0.71  +10  4.5
clark,earl...........32%  31%  0.71  - 9  4.8   perkins,kendrick.....68%   7%  1.13  + 3  4.0
arenas,gilbert.......31%  26%  0.22  - 2  1.9   erden,semih.......... 8%  12%  1.74  + 2  1.7
richardson,quentin...27%   8%  0.41  - 5  1.1   wafer,von............28%   7%  0.78  - 4  1.4
allen,malik.......... 7%  14%  0.34  - 1  0.2   daniels,marquis...... 8%  14%  0.24  + 0  0.3
duhon,chris.......... 9%  11%  0.00  - 4  0.0   harangody,luke.......(DNP)  
bass,brandon.........(DNP)                      o'neal,shaquille.....(DNP)  
PACE: 93.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 93.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Magic............   85.9 .360  .302 .215 .076   Celtics..........   97.7 .500  .118 .172 .161

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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

The List: Tar Heels Rising (by John Perrotto): On the strength of a 7-1 start to ACC play, a North Carolina team that struggled in non-conference play makes one of the biggest leaps in Basketball Prospectus' rankings this week. (premium)

Trend Watch: Augustin, Suns D, Rookie Challenge (by Kevin Pelton): This week's Trend Watch looks at D.J. Augustin blossoming since Charlotte's coaching change, the Suns becoming defensive-minded with Marcin Gortat's emergence and the rookie and sophomore classes through recent years. (premium)

The Clipboard: Mavericks Thrive in the Zone (by Sebastian Pruiti): Zone defense is generally considered to be a desperation option for weak-defending teams, but Dallas coach Rick Carlisle has successfully made the zone a primary part of his defensive arsenal. (free preview)

Start/Sit Projections: Week of Feb. 7 (by Kevin Pelton): The first full week of February looks good for Andris Biedrins, but beware the schedule ahead for Landry Fields. (premium)

Stats Love Wisconsin: (And Humans Don't) (by John Gasaway): You know the routine. Bo Ryan is every laptop's favorite coach. Then March rolls around and the Badgers lose to still another feisty mid-major. In his feature for ESPN Insider, John looks at why this keeps happening to Wisconsin (premium)

Wide Open: No Clear NBA Favorite (by Kevin Pelton): As we approach the All-Star break, the ranks of legitimate championship contenders in the NBA are large, but picking one single favorite from among them is challenging. (premium)

All-Star Reserves: Whither Kevin Love? (by Kevin Pelton): One NBA analyst's choices for the All-Star reserves, which will be announced on Thursday, with a particular eye toward one question: Is there a good reason to keep Kevin Love off the Western Conference roster? (free preview)

Stretching the Bubble: The Big 12 (by C.J. Moore): You know it's been a wild year in the Big 12 when Kansas State's 2-5, while teams like Colorado and Nebraska still have NCAA tournament hopes. In the league's last year as a "12," C.J. Moore looks at which of its teams we can expect to see in the first-ever field of 68. (premium)

Poll Position: What Happened to Syracuse? (by John Gasaway): A few days ago the Orangemen were 18-0 and ranked No. 3 in the nation. Then the roof fell in. In his feature for ESPN Insider, John sifts the rubble and considers whether the season can be salvaged. (premium)

The Old and the Effective: Rethinking Aging (by Kevin Pelton): NBA veterans have been more effective than ever this season. What kind of implications does that have for how we understand and apply the aging process? (premium)

Follow Unfiltered, the Basketball Prospectus blog.

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FANTASY PROJECTIONS

Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated weekly and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the seven days, Monday through Sunday, for every player, game-by-game projections, health status updates and current team rotations. (Current projections reflect week of Feb. 7-13.)

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HOOPS CHATS

Basketball Prospectus authors take your questions from time to time in always-popular chat format. All chats begin at 1 p.m. EST on the day listed, but you can go in and submit a question beforehand if you like, or read the transcript after the fact.

Feb. 3: Kevin Pelton (TRANSCRIPT)

Jan. 28: Bradford Doolittle (TRANSCRIPT)

Jan. 14: John Gasaway (TRANSCRIPT)

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HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)     GR (02/06/11)         WP82 -- ALL          WP82 -- ROOKIES
spurs,sanantonio, 64.8 fields,landry, 37.7   james,lebron, 34.9   griffin,blake, 19.7
celtics,boston, 59.0   howard,dwight, 33.5   paul,chris, 31.3     wall,john, 5.2
heat,miami, 57.8       felton,raymond, 32.9  rose,derrick, 27.9   fields,landry, 5.2
mavericks,dallas, 56.2 wade,dwyane, 29.1     bryant,kobe, 25.6    neal,gary, 4.8
bulls,chicago, 54.5    rondo,rajon, 28.6     williams,deron, 25.6 turner,evan, 3.4
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.

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LEADERBOARD

TEAM POWER RATINGS
TEAM, POW                          TEAM, POW
1. spurs,sanantonio, 64.8          16. rockets,houston, 41.8
2. celtics,boston, 59.0            17. 76ers,philadelphia, 39.1
3. heat,miami, 57.8                18. suns,phoenix, 38.8
4. mavericks,dallas, 56.2          19. pacers,indiana, 37.8
5. bulls,chicago, 54.5             20. bucks,milwaukee, 35.7
6. lakers,losangeles, 53.9         21. warriors,goldenstate, 35.1
7. magic,orlando, 53.5             22. bobcats,charlotte, 32.1
8. hornets,neworleans, 52.7        23. clippers,losangeles, 31.6
9. thunder,oklahomacity, 52.2      24. pistons,detroit, 30.2
10. nuggets,denver, 47.4           25. raptors,toronto, 24.2
11. hawks,atlanta, 46.0            26. kings,sacramento, 23.3
12. jazz,utah, 44.4                27. nets,newjersey, 22.6
13. grizzlies,memphis, 44.0        28. timberwolves,minnesota, 21.5
14. trailblazers,portland, 42.7    29. wizards,washington, 20.4
15. knicks,newyork, 42.6           30. cavaliers,cleveland, 13.8
NOTE: POW, our formula for a team's power rating, is an estimate of
a team's "true talent" level expressed as wins per 82 games. The 
formula takes into account point differential, home-road performance,
record in close games and strength of schedule.

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SUNDAY'S RESULTS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

HEAT 97, CLIPPERS 79 (box): LeBron James posted a season-low GR and was overheard during an officials' review urging the refs to hurry up because he had a Super Bowl party to get to, and yet the Heat still won comfortably thanks in large part to the continued outstanding work of reserve guard Eddie House.

LAC (19-31).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   MIA (37-14).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
davis,baron..........75%  24%  0.94  -14 23.5   wade,dwyane..........78%  29%  1.42  +20 29.1
griffin,blake........80%  28%  0.94  -10 19.6   house,eddie..........47%  23%  1.43  +25 15.4
gomes,ryan...........69%  10%  1.55  -15 15.3   bosh,chris...........72%  20%  1.08  +18 15.2
foye,randy...........85%  22%  0.83  - 8 10.5   jones,james..........34%  16%  1.53  + 5 12.4
diogu,ike............51%   8%  0.72  - 3  4.2   james,lebron.........74%  29%  0.67  +13 11.1
jordan,deandre.......44%  11%  0.62  -12  3.8   miller,mike..........43%  17%  1.09  - 3  6.9
cook,brian...........25%  25%  0.63  -11  3.3   ilgauskas,zydrunas...35%  13%  0.74  + 5  4.8
bledsoe,eric.........29%  28%  0.55  - 8  2.5   anthony,joel.........65%   5%  1.14  +13  4.3
aminu,alfarouq.......43%  18%  0.29  - 9  1.3   chalmers,mario.......41%  16%  0.53  + 4  3.4
butler,rasual........(DNP)                      howard,juwan......... 7%  12%  0.37  - 4  0.5
gordon,eric..........(DNP)                      arroyo,carlos........ 5%  21%  0.00  - 6  0.0
warren,willie........(DNP)                      dampier,erick........(DNP)  
PACE: 94.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 94.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Clippers.........   84.0 .364  .244 .213 .154   Heat.............  103.2 .506  .233 .170 .131

---

PACERS 105, NETS 86 (box): The Pacers have won five of six, with an average margin of victory of 16 points, and improved to 4-0 under interim coach Frank Vogel.

IND (21-27).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   NJN (15-37).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
dunleavy jr.,mike....45%  20%  2.00  + 3 22.4   harris,devin.........56%  37%  0.71  -18 15.9
mcroberts,josh.......57%  11%  1.50  + 8 15.7   uzoh,ben.............44%  22%  1.05  - 1 15.8
jones,dahntay........42%  32%  1.22  + 6 13.7   lopez,brook..........59%  26%  0.82  -11 12.7
hibbert,roy..........54%  17%  1.23  +12 13.0   outlaw,travis........52%  15%  1.24  - 8 10.4
collison,darren......60%  20%  1.06  + 8 12.9   humphries,kris.......47%  15%  1.17  - 8  9.7
granger,danny........56%  29%  0.81  +12 11.0   vujacic,sasha........49%  17%  1.45  - 8  7.9
george,paul..........58%  25%  0.97  +17  9.5   morrow,anthony.......70%  16%  0.97  -16  7.2
hansbrough,tyler.....49%  18%  0.88  + 9  8.5   petro,johan..........30%  25%  1.09  - 5  5.9
foster,jeff..........40%  12%  1.52  + 9  5.2   ross,quinton.........37%   5%  2.90  - 6  4.6
price,a.j............40%  10%  0.78  +11  2.7   favors,derrick.......43%  13%  0.38  -17  2.1
ford,t.j.............(DNP)                      greene,orien......... 6%  11%  2.50  + 2  1.6
posey,james..........(DNP)                      graham,stephen....... 7%  26%  0.00  + 1  0.0
PACE: 91.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 91.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Pacers...........  114.6 .524  .375 .218 .106   Nets.............   93.8 .440  .348 .175 .101

---

KNICKS 117, 76ERS 103 (box): The much-loved Landry Fields was the player of the day in the NBA and has done enough at this point that if Blake Griffin would have burned his rookie status last season as planned, Fields would be neck and neck with John Wall for the Rookie of the Year award.

PHI (23-27).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   NYK (26-24).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
iguodala,andre.......73%  20%  1.19  - 4 23.0   fields,landry........79%  20%  1.79  +13 37.7
young,thaddeus.......65%  25%  0.90  - 2 19.8   felton,raymond.......79%  21%  1.32  +16 32.9
brand,elton..........78%  27%  1.15  - 7 18.2   stoudemire,amare.....76%  36%  1.37  +11 24.3
williams,lou.........57%  26%  1.33  - 6 16.5   chandler,wilson......58%  24%  0.89  + 7 11.1
hawes,spencer........33%  21%  1.08  - 8 13.6   gallinari,danilo.....66%  13%  1.24  +13  9.9
turner,evan..........58%  12%  1.49  - 8 10.6   douglas,toney........44%  24%  1.07  - 4  7.5
holiday,jrue.........75%  16%  0.52  -19  6.3   williams,shawne......36%   3%  3.75  + 6  3.8
meeks,jodie..........51%   8%  1.41  -12  4.3   mozgov,timofey.......62%   6%  0.92  + 8  2.3
battie,tony..........11%   8%  1.72  - 4  1.7   mason,roger..........(DNP)  
nocioni,andres.......(DNP)                      randolph,anthony.....(DNP)  
songaila,darius......(DNP)                      rautins,andy.........(DNP)  
speights,marreese....(DNP)                      walker,bill..........(DNP)  
PACE: 90.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 90.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
76ers............  114.0 .563  .194 .221 .141   Knicks...........  129.5 .669  .323 .177 .083

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NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from press releases around the league

BUCKS: The Milwaukee Bucks have signed guard Garrett Temple (6-5, 180) to a second 10-day contract, General Manager John Hammond announced today. Temple was signed to his initial 10-day contract on January 25. Temple has played in all six games since signing with the Bucks and has averaged 2.5 points and 1.0 rebound in 11.7 minutes. In his first game with the Bucks on January 26 against Atlanta, Temple had eight points, three rebounds and three assists in just over 18 minutes. Prior to joining the Bucks, Temple, 24, played 30 NBA games (four starts) in stints with San Antonio, Houston and Sacramento over the last two seasons with career averages of 4.6 points and 1.1 rebounds in 11.8 minutes. He appeared in three games earlier this season with San Antonio.

KNICKS: New York Knickerbockers President of Basketball Operations Donnie Walsh announced today that the team has named Mark Warkentien as director, pro player personnel. In this role, Warkentien will consult Walsh on preparation for the NBA Draft, have scouting assignments and will advise on personnel moves. Warkentien most recently served as vice president of basketball operations for the Denver Nuggets, where he was named NBA Executive of the Year following the 2008-09 season. He joined the Nuggets in 2005 as director of player personnel and was elevated to vice president of basketball operations in 2006. Prior to joining Denver, Warkentien spent 14 seasons working in various front office positions for the Portland Trail Blazers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Seattle SuperSonics. Warkentien also spent 11 years in the basketball operations department at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas.

RAPTORS: The Toronto Raptors announced Monday they have signed guard Trey Johnson to a second 10-day contract. Johnson was signed to his original 10-day contract on January 26. He has appeared in five games with Toronto averaging 4.0 points, 1.6 assists and 12.6 minutes. He totaled a high of 10 points in Friday's victory versus Minnesota. Johnson, 6-foot-5, 215 pounds is the leading scorer in the D-League this season averaging 25.8 points for the Bakersfield Jam.

ROCKETS: Houston Rockets guard Aaron Brooks has been suspended for tomorrow night's game in Denver for conduct detrimental to the team. The team will have no further comment regarding this matter.

SIXERS: The Philadelphia 76ers announced today that they have recalled rookie forward Craig Brackins from their NBA Development League affiliate, the Springfield Armor. Brackins was assigned to the Armor on January 15. His first assignment was from November 30 through December 12. In 14 games for Springfield, Brackins averaged 19.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.00 blocks in 37.2 minutes per game. Over his final three games with the Armor, Brackins averaged 24.7 points and 11.3 rebounds. He leaves the D-League tied for the seventh-highest scoring average of any player this season.

SUNS: The Suns have signed guard Zabian Dowdell (ZAY-bee-in dow-DELL) through the remainder of the 2010-11 season, the team has announced. The 6-3, 191-pound Dowdell has appeared in five games with the Suns this season over the course of two 10-day contracts, recording averages of 3.2 points, 1.8 assists and 1.0 steals in 10.0 minutes per game. Dowdell also spent training camp with the Suns in 2010 before being waived on Oct. 19. Dowdell played 18 games of the 2010-11 season with the Tulsa 66ers of the NBA D-League, where he averaged 14.5 points, 4.6 assists and 2.1 rebounds in 29.3 minutes in 18 starts.

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ON TAP

Tonight in the NBA

WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+ 8  chi @ por, 10:00 PM EST [ chi by  4 ]   M.McCutchen, P.Fraher, M.Lindsay
+ 8  lal @ mem,  8:00 PM EST [ lal by  4 ]   J.Crawford, D.Richardson, S.Wright
+ 8  hou @ den,  9:00 PM EST [ den by  7 ]   M.Davis, D.Guthrie, M.Kogut
+ 5  phx @ gsw, 10:30 PM EST [ gsw by  1 ]   G.Willard, B.Forte, J.Goble
+ 2  bos @ cha,  7:00 PM EST [ bos by  8 ]   R.Garretson, M.Ayotte, K.Fitzgerald
- 3  min @ nwo,  8:00 PM EST [ nwo by 12 ]   D.Crawford, R.Mott, V.Palmer
- 2  uta @ sac, 10:00 PM EST [ uta by  1 ]   K.Mauer, C.Kirkland, J.Tiven
-16  cle @ dal,  8:30 PM EST [ dal by 20 ]   B.Kennedy, B.Barnaky, K.Fehr
Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.

Through Sunday, 755 of 1,230 games (61.4 percent) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

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GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

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TWITTER DIRECTORY
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