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December 16, 2010
PBP Roundup
Dec. 15

by Bradford Doolittle

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I received two more e-mails today regarding NBAPET lines and the "reliability" of them as a guide for placing wagers. So I guess I need to reiterate: The lines are not meant to be used as a guideline for betting. I don't gamble. (Not even poker.) I don't keep tabs on the Vegas lines. I have never done one second of study to determine how NBAPET does against the spreads it generates. All the lines represent are very simplistic predictions to serve as a baseline of expectation for each game, nothing more. The system picks about 72-73 percent of all winners accurately. (It's actually a little lower than I quoted previously, when I was going off the top of my head.) All the success rate means is that it's not that hard to pick winners straight up in the NBA. It really is a simplistic system which doesn't weigh recent performance nor does it consider player availability.

I also got an e-mail wondering if you could use the fantasy download spreadsheet as a game forecaster since it does consider current player rotations. I really have no idea, however, I doubt that it would be that reliable. There is no home advantage factored in plus at this point, I'm not sure if the weight given preseason SCHOENE projections is appropriate once you tabulate the numbers up to the team level. I have not analyzed how the fantasy projections work as a game forecaster and I have no plans to look into the issue. For one thing, I am adamantly opposed to gambling. It's probably the one issue where I reside in conservative territory.

This all does bring to mind an amusing encounter I had at a bar last week. It was at a place I go to a lot and the bartender started asking me about the Bulls, which spurred the guy next to me to start in. He engaged me in NBA chatter for quite awhile, during which it became apparent that he didn't know what the hell he was talking about. A little later, he decided to share with me the fact that he is a bookie. Okay. I asked him how he set his lines and--this is the part that kills me--he said he doesn't use lines. He only accepts bets on straight-up winners. He makes his money by making his own pick on each game and then accepting the majority of the bets on the teams he thinks are going to lose.

I don't know much, or anything, about the bookie business, but this system struck me as exceedingly insane. For one, it's just not that hard to pick winners straight up--in any sport. For instance, NBAPET has picked 34 of the last 37 games played correctly. So, by my calculations, if I had placed a $100 bet on each game with this guy, I would be $3,400 up. As long as I was betting every game, there would be no way for me to lose. Don't worry--I have no intention of trying this guy out. Besides the reasons already stated and the questionable legality of the process, one look at this guy told me two things: He's full of crap and even if he's not, his ability to pay off these bets is shaky at best.

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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

1. In this week's Poll Position John Gasaway muses whether Missouri is more appropriately evaluated by the humans or the computers. As a Mizzou guy, for what it's worth, I agree with John. Mizzou just hasn't been impressive so far, but there is plenty of potential on the Tigers' roster. There is also some limbo. Starting guard Michael Dixon was suspended yesterday for violating team rules and it's unknown how long Mike Anderson is going to hold him out. It's also unknown whether stud recruit Tony Mitchell is going gain eligibility for the second semester. Everyone is waiting around for an NCAA decision on that one. I also agree with John that humans dig Mizzou. (premium)

2. Kevin Pelton notes how it is only now becoming clear just how much of Cleveland's success the last few years was because of LeBron James. (premium)

3. John Perrotto goes Around the Rim with items on West Virginia, Rutgers and the impending debuts of some high-profile players. (premium)

4. In NYC in the NEC: A New Day, Asher Fusco looks at the Big Apple's role in the NEC. (Free preview)

5. An effusive John Gasaway dances on the grave of rebound margin. (Unfiltered)

6. In Every Play Counts, Kevin Pelton breaks down the intricacies of the highly-effective zone defense of the Dallas Mavericks. (premium)

7. On the Beat touches on the dissolution of the Charlotte Bobcats. (premium)

8. In this week's Poll Position, college guru John Gasaway weighs in on the ramifications of Kyrie Irving's injury. (premium)

9. The Clipboard: Variety is the Spice of Jason Richardson's Game says Sebastian Pruiti in his latest video-charged breadown. (premium)

10. Trench Watch has analysis of the Hornets, Ray Felton and a league-wide trend in free throws. (premium)

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FANTASY PROJECTIONS

Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated daily and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the next seven days for every player, game-by-game projections and health status updates.

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HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)      GR (12/15/10)            WP82 -- ALL           WP82 -- ROOKIES
celtics,boston, 67.3    durant,kevin, 38.0       james,lebron, 25.0    griffin,blake, 16.4
spurs,sanantonio, 61.4  felton,raymond, 37.4     williams,deron, 23.6  wall,john, 7.7
mavericks,dallas, 60.3  aldridge,lamarcus, 34.1  bryant,kobe, 23.2     bledsoe,eric, 3.1
bulls,chicago, 58.8     allen,ray, 33.9          ellis,monta, 19.0     fields,landry, 3.1
heat,miami, 58.3        ginobili,manu, 32.9      rose,derrick, 18.8    cousins,demarcus, 2.9
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.

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WEDNESDAY'S BOX SCORES & RECAPS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

LAKERS 109, PACERS 94 (box)

LAL (19-7)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   IND (11-13)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
gasol,pau            75%  30%  1.25  +12 30.8   collison,darren      70%  20%  1.28  -12 23.7
odom,lamar           72%  19%  1.22  +18 24.0   posey,james          39%  14%  1.97  - 6 17.6
bryant,kobe          71%  29%  1.61  +16 22.7   dunleavy jr.,mike    57%  16%  1.49  +11 13.5
artest,ron           56%  15%  1.71  +20 17.4   rush,brandon         66%  22%  1.16  -20 13.3
blake,steve          61%  10%  1.18  + 2 10.3   granger,danny        68%  28%  0.70  -21  9.0
brown,shannon        29%  28%  0.94  - 1  5.8   hibbert,roy          64%  24%  0.82  -15  8.5
walton,luke          17%  10%  1.55    0  3.9   jones,solomon        27%  19%  1.19  + 5  7.9
fisher,derek         39%  11%  0.98  +13  3.5   hansbrough,tyler     24%  13%  1.51  + 6  4.9
barnes,matt          39%  14%  0.84  - 4  2.9   ford,t.j.            30%  10%  0.94  - 3  3.9
bynum,andrew         37%  15%  0.85    0  2.9   foster,jeff          17%  18%  0.89  - 1  2.5
ebanks,devin          5%  20%  0.95  - 1  0.8   mcroberts,josh       30%  17%  0.52  -19  2.5
caracter,derrick (DNP)                          jones,dahntay         8%  12%  0.72    0  0.5
PACE: 87.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 87.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
lakers,losangeles  125.0 .561  .324 .115 .121   pacers,indiana     107.8 .506  .093 .080 .081

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CELTICS 118, KNICKS 116 (box)

BOS (20-4)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   NYK (16-10)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
allen,ray            86%  21%  1.32  - 3 33.9   felton,raymond       95%  23%  1.40  - 6 37.4
pierce,paul          84%  27%  1.34    0 27.1   stoudemire,amare     88%  33%  1.12  + 9 29.1
garnett,kevin        76%  24%  1.23  - 4 21.0   chandler,wilson      90%  19%  1.16  + 1 20.7
rondo,rajon          71%  20%  1.26  - 8 13.4   gallinari,danilo     89%  18%  1.14  + 1 15.6
robinson,nate        48%  14%  1.26  +12 11.2   fields,landry        75%   8%  1.19  + 8  8.2
davis,glen           58%  19%  0.90  + 4  8.6   douglas,toney        33%  18%  0.75  - 9  7.8
daniels,marquis      36%   8%  1.08  + 4  5.0   williams,shawne      11%  15%  0.71  - 3  2.5
erden,semih          33%  10%  1.78  - 1  4.2   turiaf,ronny         18%   3%  0.89  -11  1.0
wafer,von             7%  14%  0.00  + 6  0.0   mason,roger (DNP)
bradley,avery (DNP)                             mozgov,timofey (DNP)
harangody,luke (DNP)                            randolph,anthony (DNP)
o'neal,shaquille (DNP)                          walker,bill (DNP)
PACE: 94.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 94.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
celtics,boston     124.4 .564  .297 .137 .097   knicks,newyork     122.3 .586  .243 .179 .121

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76ERS 105, CLIPPERS 91 (box)

LAC (5-21)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   PHI (10-15)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
griffin,blake        82%  26%  1.18  -17 24.9   young,thaddeus       51%  18%  1.31  + 4 20.5
gordon,eric          77%  31%  0.75  -23 23.7   iguodala,andre       86%  11%  2.22  +24 20.4
davis,baron          56%  30%  1.18  - 1 13.8   holiday,jrue         81%  25%  1.33  + 8 20.1
jordan,deandre       74%   8%  2.24  + 1 10.4   brand,elton          76%  18%  1.17  +16 15.6
bledsoe,eric         34%  30%  0.61  -15  9.7   meeks,jodie          69%  14%  1.11  +17 15.0
cook,brian           34%  20%  0.68  -12  8.0   hawes,spencer        71%  29%  0.87  + 5 13.8
gomes,ryan           60%   8%  1.60  - 6  7.8   williams,lou         44%  25%  0.71  - 1  7.7
aminu,alfarouq       32%  10%  0.88  - 3  2.7   turner,evan          20%  12%  1.51  - 6  4.6
foye,randy           10%  17%  0.76    0  1.0   battie,tony           2%  59%  0.00  + 3  0.0
butler,rasual        37%   5%  0.00  + 2  0.0   nocioni,andres (DNP)
collins,jason (DNP)                             songaila,darius (DNP)
smith,craig (DNP)                               speights,marreese (DNP)
PACE: 89.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 89.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
clippers,losangele 101.9 .428  .359 .168 .133   76ers,philadelphia 117.6 .473  .320 .056 .113

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BULLS 110, RAPTORS 93 (box)

CHI (16-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   TOR (9-17)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
korver,kyle          44%  25%  1.64  + 4 25.7   bayless,jerryd       68%  25%  1.19  -27 26.8
boozer,carlos        54%  43%  1.48  +23 23.6   barbosa,leandro      63%  23%  1.37  + 4 25.2
deng,luol            74%  20%  1.27  +24 20.3   dorsey,joey          59%  15%  1.65  + 9 20.4
noah,joakim          55%  16%  1.39  +23 17.6   davis,ed             67%  13%  1.42  -24  8.5
rose,derrick         62%  21%  1.13  +22 11.6   weems,sonny          63%  23%  0.70  -16  8.4
brewer,ronnie        55%  12%  1.54  - 7  8.4   derozan,demar        64%  22%  0.69  -19  6.6
gibson,taj           64%  18%  0.72    0  7.5   wright,julian        36%  12%  1.39  + 6  4.9
bogans,keith         34%   6%  3.40  +15  6.8   johnson,amir         42%  15%  0.56  -24  3.2
watson,c.j.          38%  16%  0.90  - 5  3.8   kleiza,linas         38%  23%  0.45  + 6  2.7
asik,omer            20%   2%  3.62  -14  1.0   alabi,soloman (DNP)
johnson,james (DNP)                             bargnani,andrea (DNP)
scalabrine,brian (DNP)                          stojakovic,peja (DNP)
PACE: 87.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 87.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
bulls,chicago      126.2 .574  .368 .161 .121   raptors,toronto    106.7 .459  .283 .115 .081

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HEAT 101, CAVALIERS 95 (box)

CLE (7-18)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   MIA (19-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
gibson,daniel        82%  23%  1.41  - 2 25.4   james,lebron         80%  33%  0.90    0 28.9
jamison,antawn       81%  24%  0.84  - 3 22.5   wade,dwyane          83%  26%  1.30  +15 19.7
varejao,anderson     83%  16%  1.42  + 1 17.0   chalmers,mario       73%  14%  1.67  + 4 19.4
williams,maurice     80%  25%  0.86    0 13.1   bosh,chris           84%  20%  0.86  + 8 16.7
parker,anthony       78%  14%  0.88  + 1 11.1   jones,james          51%   8%  3.02  + 1 11.3
sessions,ramon       23%  15%  1.55  - 6  9.1   anthony,joel         46%  15%  0.81  + 1  8.5
graham,joey          34%  22%  0.47  - 9  4.0   ilgauskas,zydrunas   38%  19%  0.86  +12  4.3
hickson,j.j.         40%  13%  0.84  -12  3.1   howard,juwan         16%  17%  0.57  - 2  2.1
harris,manny (DNP)                              house,eddie          13%   8%  0.93  - 2  0.9
hollins,ryan (DNP)                              dampier,erick        15%   7%  0.18  - 7  0.2
powe,leon (DNP)                                 arroyo,carlos (DNP)
williams,jawad (DNP)                            magloire,jamaal (DNP)
PACE: 90.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 90.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
cavaliers,cleve    105.4 .454  .217 .100 .098   heat,miami         112.0 .529  .243 .155 .200

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GRIZZLIES 113, BOBCATS 80 (box)

CHA (9-16)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   MEM (12-14)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
augustin,d.j.        73%  14%  1.50  -24 19.5   mayo,o.j.            51%  31%  1.51  +34 31.2
jackson,stephen      61%  38%  0.61  -18 14.5   gay,rudy             77%  23%  1.33  +20 18.4
diaw,boris           61%  19%  0.79  -19  8.9   randolph,zach        68%  25%  1.03  +20 17.3
thomas,tyrus         37%  25%  1.07  -15  7.9   gasol,marc           52%  11%  1.31  +15 10.5
brown,derrick        32%  21%  0.77  - 5  7.7   conley,mike          62%  14%  1.36  +17 10.0
mcguire,dominic      59%  11%  1.16  - 6  6.2   young,sam            13%  37%  1.10  + 1  6.4
livingston,shaun     31%  12%  0.89  -10  5.7   arthur,darrell       35%  21%  1.09  +15  6.2
mohammed,nazr        37%  16%  0.75  - 6  5.4   henry,xavier         45%  17%  0.78  + 1  5.7
brown,kwame          57%  21%  0.56  -23  4.8   thabeet,hasheem      30%  14%  1.34  + 9  5.5
carroll,matt         26%  19%  0.50  -21  1.8   vasquez,greivis      38%  11%  0.98  +16  5.0
hendersonjr,gerald   20%  14%  0.62  -14  1.2   allen,tony           24%  10%  1.25  +11  2.5
diop,desagana         6%  13%  1.71  - 4  1.0   haddadi,hamed         6%  33%  0.81  + 6  0.9
PACE: 94.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 94.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
bobcats,charlotte   84.5 .449  .132 .232 .121   grizzlies,memphis  119.4 .549  .167 .127 .135

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HORNETS 94, KINGS 91 (box)

SAC (5-18)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   NWO (15-10)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
evans,tyreke         89%  25%  1.07  - 7 22.1   west,david           86%  18%  1.01    0 22.7
udrih,beno           83%  19%  1.36  - 4 18.7   paul,chris           78%  21%  1.60  + 4 20.8
greene,donte         43%  27%  0.95  +10 17.6   thornton,marcus      50%  36%  1.04  +22 16.0
cousins,demarcus     57%  25%  0.89  - 9 12.7   green,willie         52%  14%  1.36  +19 12.2
casspi,omri          46%  11%  1.01  - 6  8.7   okafor,emeka         69%  13%  1.26  + 4  9.4
landry,carl          43%  30%  0.88  + 2  8.1   jack,jarrett         28%  39%  0.47  - 2  7.5
thompson,jason       60%  13%  0.60  - 6  6.9   belinelli,marco      43%  30%  0.75  -17  7.1
jeter,pooh           20%  19%  0.95  + 3  3.3   smith,jason          35%   6%  3.42  + 2  5.0
dalembert,samuel     39%   3%  2.39  + 1  2.4   andersen,david       11%  22%  1.06    0  3.7
head,luther          19%  14%  0.36  + 1  1.1   ariza,trevor         42%   5%  0.50  -19  0.7
garcia,francisco (DNP)                          pondexter,quincy      7%  28%  0.00  + 2  0.0
jackson,darnell (DNP)                           ilungambenga,didier (DNP)
PACE: 89.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 89.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
kings,sacramento   101.7 .500  .231 .179 .059   hornets,neworleans 105.0 .462  .289 .134 .147

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THUNDER 117, ROCKETS 105 (box)

HOU (10-15)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   OKC (18-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
lowry,kyle           72%  18%  1.20  - 3 22.3   durant,kevin         74%  32%  1.28  +15 38.0
martin,kevin         57%  30%  1.36    0 17.7   green,jeff           80%  22%  1.30  +13 21.8
hill,jordan          50%  29%  0.84  -11 16.7   harden,james         66%  16%  1.61  +10 17.0
scola,luis           56%  29%  1.02  - 6 13.0   westbrook,russell    66%  22%  1.11  + 8 17.0
hayes,chuck          47%  12%  1.83  - 2 12.1   sefolosha,thabo      71%  16%  1.37  +14 12.2
lee,courtney         57%  11%  1.81  -12  9.3   maynor,eric          34%  11%  1.33  + 4  8.3
battier,shane        69%  11%  1.14  - 4  7.6   ibaka,serge          49%   8%  1.83  + 3  5.7
budinger,chase       32%  24%  0.83  - 9  5.4   collison,nick        27%  13%  0.73  + 9  4.6
patterson,patrick     8%  24%  1.46  + 4  4.7   white,d.j.           18%  22%  0.81  - 6  3.4
miller,brad          25%  10%  1.43  - 8  3.8   mullens,byron        11%  27%  0.42  - 5  0.9
smith,ishmael        28%  20%  0.37  - 9  3.0   ivey,royal            2%  44%  0.00  - 5  0.0
jeffries,jared (DNP)                            peterson,morris (DNP)
PACE: 90.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 90.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
rockets,houston    115.7 .518  .214 .121 .136   thunder,oklacity   128.9 .627  .296 .187 .141

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SPURS 92, BUCKS 90 (box)

MIL (10-14)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   SAS (21-3)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
gooden,drew          52%  41%  0.87  +10 25.0   ginobili,manu        64%  34%  1.24    0 32.9
douglas-roberts,ch   83%  23%  1.09  - 2 21.7   parker,tony          72%  26%  1.04  + 4 23.1
bogut,andrew         75%  18%  1.35  - 5 16.7   duncan,tim           65%  22%  1.05  + 2 10.5
jennings,brandon     89%  22%  0.85  + 2 13.9   hill,george          69%   8%  1.13  -10  8.9
ilyasova,ersan       62%  20%  0.99  - 5 10.5   jefferson,richard    71%  19%  0.90  +12  7.9
dooling,keyon        72%   7%  1.44  -10  4.8   bonner,matt          56%  10%  1.22  - 3  6.8
mbahamoute,luc       46%   5%  1.65  + 8  4.8   blair,dejuan         38%  21%  0.86  +13  5.2
boykins,earl         11%  27%  0.44  - 6  1.8   neal,gary            24%  23%  0.43    0  3.1
maggette,corey       10%  18%  0.00  - 2  0.0   splitter,tiago        9%  22%  0.99  + 1  1.6
brockman,jon (DNP)                              mcdyess,antonio      32%   9%  0.91  - 9  1.5
sanders,larry (DNP)                             quinn,chris (DNP)
salmons,john (DNP)                              udoka,ime (DNP)
PACE: 90.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 90.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
bucks,milwaukee     99.2 .481  .163 .176 .078   spurs,sanantonio   101.4 .543  .083 .187 .121

---

SUNS 128, TIMBERWOLVES 122 (box)

MIN (6-20)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   PHX (12-12)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
webster,martell      50%  11%  1.97  + 4 20.4   nash,steve           65%  14%  2.17  +21 25.3
brewer,corey         59%  28%  1.03  +10 18.4   frye,channing        72%  20%  1.54  +15 22.2
love,kevin           79%  20%  1.45  - 4 18.3   hill,grant           67%  19%  1.54  +19 20.9
johnson,wesley       74%  16%  1.31  -11 15.1   richardson,jason     73%  34%  1.00  + 8 18.3
ridnour,luke         66%  12%  1.37  -21 12.9   dragic,goran         35%  27%  1.24  -15 10.5
milicic,darko        72%  22%  0.93  -14 12.0   lopez,robin          50%  18%  1.16  + 9  9.4
beasley,michael      56%  27%  0.90  -14 11.9   dudley,jared         60%  10%  1.79    0  7.7
flynn,jonny          34%  20%  1.19  +15  7.3   warrick,hakim        32%  24%  0.89  -16  7.0
pekovic,nikola       11%  14%  1.98  + 5  3.0   turkoglu,hedo        30%  10%  0.79  -12  2.8
ellington,wayne (DNP)                           barron,earl          17%  14%  0.71  + 1  1.2
hayward,lazar (DNP)                             childress,josh (DNP)
telfair,sebastian (DNP)                         clark,earl (DNP)
PACE: 102.2         ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 102.2         ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
timberwolves,minn  119.4 .581  .200 .157 .082   suns,phoenix       125.3 .592  .311 .157 .142

---

MAVERICKS 103, TRAIL BLAZERS 98 (box)

POR (12-14)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   DAL (20-5)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
aldridge,lamarcus    87%  36%  1.01  - 4 34.1   butler,caron         70%  33%  1.06  +14 25.9
batum,nicolas        55%  18%  1.29  + 1 16.4   kidd,jason           75%  12%  2.03  +13 21.4
miller,andre         66%  15%  1.57  -10 13.6   nowitzki,dirk        77%  28%  1.05  - 6 17.2
roy,brandon          62%   8%  1.61  - 3 12.6   marion,shawn         53%  15%  1.02  + 2 15.1
matthews,wesley      66%  20%  1.26  - 3 11.3   terry,jason          67%  21%  0.94  + 9 12.8
camby,marcus         43%  12%  1.47  - 5  7.6   chandler,tyson       72%   8%  2.01  + 8 12.1
cunningham,dante     50%  15%  1.22  - 8  6.3   barea,jose           30%  31%  0.90  - 4  9.2
mills,patrick        27%  26%  0.84  + 7  4.6   stevenson,deshawn    28%  18%  0.41  - 8  3.8
fernandez,rudy       34%  24%  0.42  - 2  4.3   mahinmi,ian           7%  15%  1.62  + 4  1.3
przybilla,joel       10%   8%  2.33  + 2  3.1   haywood,brendan      21%   3%  1.84  - 7  1.0
johnson,armon (DNP)                             cardinal,brian (DNP)
marks,sean (DNP)                                novak,steve (DNP)
PACE: 86.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 86.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
trailblazers,port  114.0 .512  .279 .093 .092   mavericks,dallas   119.8 .561  .167 .140 .107

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from around the league

BULLS: "Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah will have surgery to repair a torn ulna collateral ligament in his right thumb. The surgery will be performed tomorrow morning by Dr. Mark Cohen and Dr. John Fernandez of Midwest Orthopaedics at Rush University Medical Center." (press release)
Noah did have surgery, which was successful, and the current timetable for his return is 8-to-10 weeks. Kirk Hinrich had this same injury when he played for the Bulls a couple of years ago and he missed nine weeks. With Noah out, Taj Gibson will move back into the starting lineup, Luol Deng will see more minutes at four, where he was highly effective during Carlos Boozer's absence, and Kurt Thomas will likely be dusted off. I don't look for Omer Asik's minutes to change that much, mostly due to his inability to defend without fouling.

HAWKS: "Hawks guard Jamal Crawford will miss tonight's game at Boston due to a sore back. Joe Johnson remains out after having surgery on his right elbow." (press release)
More Jordan Crawford for at least one night?

ROCKETS: "An MRI performed today on Rockets center Yao Ming revealed a stress fracture of the Medial Malleolus in his left ankle. The fracture, which is related to his previous injury of the Tarsal Navicular bone, presented itself during the course of his current rehabilitation program. There is no timetable for his return at this time."
No short-term ramifications for Houston, as the Rockets have growed used to playing without Yao and, this season, have been more effective when he doesn't play. Long term--you really fear for Yao's future in the NBA.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ON TAP

Tonight in the NBA

WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+14  sas @ den, 10:30 PM EST [ sas by  5 ]   Dick Bavetta, Rodney Mott, Haywoode Workman
+13  atl @ bos,  8:00 PM EST [ bos by 13 ]   Greg Willard, Mark Ayotte, David Jones
-10  was @ njn,  7:00 PM EST [ njn by  7 ]   Ken Mauer, Bennie Adams, Curtis Blair
Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.

Through Wednesday, 376 of 1,230 games (30.6%) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

You can follow Bradford on Twitter at twitter.com/@bbdoolittle.

The 2010-11 Pro Basketball Prospectus is now available in paperback form on Amazon.com. For sample chapters and more information, see our book page.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

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