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As you likely know by now, there was a three-team trade in the NBA that became official on Wednesday, plus an additional smaller, but related, transaction. Keep an eye on the site for a Transaction Analysis on today's dealings. Now, on to the Roundup.
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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS
1. In NYC in the NEC: A New Day, Asher Fusco looks at the Big Apple's role in the NEC. (Free preview)
2. An effusive John Gasaway dances on the grave of rebound margin. (Unfiltered)
3. In Every Play Counts, Kevin Pelton breaks down the intricacies of the highly-effective zone defense of the Dallas Mavericks. (premium)
4. On the Beat touches on the dissolution of the Charlotte Bobcats. (premium)
5. In this week's Poll Position, college guru John Gasaway weighs in on the ramifications of Kyrie Irving's injury. (premium)
6. The Clipboard: Variety is the Spice of Jason Richardson's Game says Sebastian Pruiti in his latest video-charged breadown. (premium)
7. Trench Watch has analysis of the Hornets, Ray Felton and a league-wide trend in free throws. (premium)
8. Syracuse is doomed. Like Duke last year. John Gasaway may be waxing ironic here. (Unfiltered)
9. How Ravine Was My Valley. Kyle Whelliston looks at the downturn of the Missouri Valley Conference. (Unfiltered)
10. Prospectus Roundtable: NBA at the Quarter Pole, a look at the season so far by our NBA quorum. (Free preview)
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FANTASY PROJECTIONS
Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated daily and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the next seven days for every player, game-by-game projections and health status updates.
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HOT FIVES
POWER RATING (POW) GR (12/14/10) WP82 -- ALL WP82 -- ROOKIES
celtics,boston, 66.2 anthony,carmelo, 40.7 williams,deron, 25.0 griffin,blake, 16.0
spurs,sanantonio, 61.6 bryant,kobe, 38.6 james,lebron, 24.6 wall,john, 8.1
mavericks,dallas, 59.8 williams,reggie, 31.4 bryant,kobe, 22.6 fields,landry, 3.2
heat,miami, 58.5 ellis,monta, 29.7 ellis,monta, 20.1 bledsoe,eric, 3.1
bulls,chicago, 57.9 smith,josh, 28.8 rose,derrick, 19.4 cousins,demarcus, 2.8
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.
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TUESDAY'S BOX SCORES & RECAPS
NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.
BOBCATS 97, RAPTORS 91 (box): After hitting the 2010-11 NBA nadir for Offensive Rating in their last game, the Bobcats bounced back with something closer to a professional-looking attack. Of course, it came against the Raptors, who despite becoming a darling of the highlight shows, still don't translate that athleticism to defensive efficiency. It's neither here nor there, but Kwame Brown has actually played pretty well for Charlotte and has been a difference-maker on defense. With Nazr Mohammed the only guy ahead of him on the depth chart, Brown should probably be getting more than 15 minutes per game.
TOR (9-16) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR CHA (9-15) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
derozan,demar 71% 20% 0.95 - 3 20.6 wallace,gerald 93% 13% 1.40 + 9 21.8
bayless,jerryd 72% 24% 1.32 - 1 19.7 mohammed,nazr 40% 41% 1.04 - 4 16.9
kleiza,linas 40% 27% 0.80 - 5 12.8 brown,kwame 39% 19% 1.32 +11 14.5
johnson,amir 75% 12% 1.56 + 1 12.6 thomas,tyrus 44% 32% 0.91 + 8 13.7
weems,sonny 76% 14% 0.93 - 2 11.0 augustin,d.j. 73% 19% 1.17 + 7 12.2
barbosa,leandro 45% 25% 1.30 - 4 9.1 diaw,boris 72% 20% 0.93 - 2 11.8
bargnani,andrea 58% 31% 0.75 -15 8.5 jackson,stephen 52% 20% 0.80 - 9 6.3
davis,ed 52% 7% 1.58 + 1 5.0 carroll,matt 18% 12% 2.46 +12 4.6
wright,julian 6% 31% 0.40 - 4 1.0 livingston,shaun 27% 13% 1.80 - 1 4.2
dorsey,joey 5% 20% 0.00 + 2 0.0 mcguire,dominic 27% 1% 2.18 + 2 0.8
alabi,soloman (DNP) hendersonjr,gerald 7% 29% 0.00 - 3 0.0
stojakovic,peja (DNP) brown,derrick (DNP)
PACE: 90.7 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 90.7 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
raptors,toronto 100.3 .449 .385 .209 .102 bobcats,charlotte 106.9 .527 .324 .165 .141
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76ERS 82, NETS 77 (box): I hearken back to what I said in our subjective picks piece from the start of the season: "My system didn't really project a 'surprise' team, but I'll go out on a limb and take the Sixers for one reason: Doug Collins. They weren't very good in the preseason and I expect them to get off to a slow start, but Collins' presence ensures that they'll eventually be a good defensive team. They'll struggle for points, but they'll get better on that end as the season progresses and Collins figures out how his pieces fit." Look, I'm not going to break my arm patting myself on the back because the Sixers are 9-15. They could finish 15-67 for all I know, though I am sticking with my prediction that Philly will sneak in and grab the last playoff spot in the East. I do want to underscore that you have to consider the offensive and defensive history of coaches when evaluating a team to the point that there probably needs to be a component for that in an objective system. Collins gets teams to defend, simply as that.
PHI (9-15) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR NJN (6-19) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
holiday,jrue 76% 26% 1.06 +14 21.4 outlaw,travis 70% 24% 1.03 - 2 24.4
hawes,spencer 51% 27% 1.47 +19 17.9 farmar,jordan 42% 29% 0.87 +10 15.0
iguodala,andre 84% 15% 0.94 + 9 16.5 harris,devin 69% 24% 1.00 -10 11.5
brand,elton 79% 21% 0.85 + 4 14.4 favors,derrick 56% 15% 1.26 +11 11.2
meeks,jodie 74% 21% 0.93 +11 13.6 lopez,brook 73% 20% 1.10 - 9 9.5
battie,tony 27% 15% 0.98 - 9 5.3 humphries,kris 45% 23% 0.62 -17 6.6
young,thaddeus 38% 10% 1.00 -13 2.3 graham,stephen 69% 8% 1.02 - 7 5.8
turner,evan 32% 13% 0.35 - 6 1.9 uzoh,ben 16% 64% 0.57 + 2 4.7
speights,marreese 12% 8% 1.89 + 2 1.2 petro,johan 24% 0% 12.74 + 2 0.9
williams,lou 27% 23% 0.21 - 6 1.0 ross,quinton 34% 3% 0.00 - 5 0.0
nocioni,andres (DNP) uzoh,ben (DNP)
songaila,darius (DNP) smith,joe (DNP)
PACE: 85.9 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 85.9 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
76ers,philadelphia 95.5 .446 .135 .163 .097 nets,newjersey 89.7 .366 .380 .163 .123
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LAKERS 103, WIZARDS 89 (box): It was the season debut for oft-injured Lakers center Andrew Bynum, who played 17:29 off the bench and had seven points and four rebounds. It's just a starting point. It did occur to me as I watched highlights of him blocking a pair of shots that I may have underestimated Bynum's absence as a factor in the Lakers' defensive backslide this season.
LAL (18-7) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR WAS (6-17) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
bryant,kobe 50% 38% 1.43 + 6 38.6 arenas,gilbert 74% 20% 1.21 - 9 19.2
gasol,pau 64% 26% 1.29 +19 17.0 young,nick 66% 36% 0.80 -17 17.4
odom,lamar 77% 14% 1.70 +23 16.7 booker,trevor 72% 7% 1.94 -12 16.9
brown,shannon 50% 29% 1.03 + 8 13.1 martin,cartier 29% 22% 1.02 - 6 11.1
artest,ron 53% 18% 1.03 + 8 8.9 mcgee,javale 60% 14% 1.61 -13 11.0
fisher,derek 53% 11% 1.22 + 8 8.5 thornton,al 56% 20% 0.89 - 3 8.2
barnes,matt 47% 13% 0.93 + 6 6.1 hinrich,kirk 74% 16% 0.74 - 7 6.5
bynum,andrew 36% 26% 0.86 - 5 5.7 seraphin,kevin 32% 23% 1.03 - 2 5.5
blake,steve 47% 4% 1.01 + 6 2.0 armstrong,hilton 25% 27% 0.64 + 1 4.3
caracter,derrick 5% 42% 0.82 - 2 1.1 jianlian,yi 11% 16% 1.09 - 2 1.9
walton,luke 19% 9% 0.17 - 7 0.3 gee,alonzo (DNP)
vujacic,sasha (DNP) ndiaye,hamady (DNP)
PACE: 87.2 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 87.2 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
lakers,losangeles 118.1 .493 .308 .138 .202 wizards,washington 102.1 .423 .365 .115 .081
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PISTONS 103, HAWKS 80 (box): They done what? For awhile, it looked like Detroit was falling into its familiar pattern. The Pistons jumped to a 12-point halftime lead, but were outscored by nine points in the third quarter. Instead of completing the implosion this time, however, Detroit enjoyed an explosion, to the tune of a 39-19 fourth period. John Kuester went with four reserves plus Rodney Stuckey for nearly the entire final quarter, with Rip Hamilton getting 1:26. Charlie Villanueva scored 16 points in the last quarter, while Tracy McGrady added 12 of his season-high 16 points. The pair combined shoot 6-of-8 from deep in the final 12 minutes. Does this sound like a solution for the Pistons' late-game woes, or does it sound like fool's gold? I leave it up to you to decide.
ATL (16-10) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR DET (8-18) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
smith,josh 78% 34% 1.00 -17 28.8 hamilton,richard 67% 37% 0.98 + 2 27.4
horford,al 90% 23% 0.90 -18 22.2 villanueva,charlie 58% 30% 1.46 +29 23.6
bibby,mike 54% 26% 1.22 - 9 15.7 mcgrady,tracy 54% 20% 1.90 +23 23.2
williams,marvin 63% 9% 1.46 -12 7.6 prince,tayshaun 57% 15% 1.59 - 1 12.2
crawford,jamal 65% 18% 0.39 -11 7.4 stuckey,rodney 77% 21% 1.33 +20 11.8
wilkins,damien 67% 7% 1.03 -24 3.6 wilcox,chris 42% 11% 1.11 +20 6.9
teague,jeff 11% 30% 1.12 - 8 3.5 wallace,ben 57% 7% 1.36 + 3 5.8
powell,josh 22% 30% 0.51 -14 2.3 gordon,ben 45% 15% 0.64 +25 5.4
evans,maurice 29% 7% 1.02 + 5 1.4 monroe,greg 43% 10% 1.26 - 6 3.4
pachulia,zaza 23% 9% 0.23 - 7 0.7 bynum,will (DNP)
collins,jason (DNP) daye,austin (DNP)
thomas,etan (DNP) maxiell,jason (DNP)
PACE: 85.9 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 85.9 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
hawks,atlanta 93.1 .485 .983 .186 .102 pistons,detroit 119.9 .538 .263 .140 .108
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ROCKETS 118, KINGS 105 (box): After an 0-5 start, the Rockets have quietly gone 10-9 and seem to be improving by the week. With Yao Ming ready to return, Terrence Williams coming into the mix and Patrick Patterson coming back from a highly-successful stint in the D-League, the Rockets may be primed for a postseason push. The upcoming schedule is favorable and it looks like the depth in the Western Conference has eroded to the point where a .500ish finish may get you to the playoffs.
SAC (5-17) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR HOU (10-14) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
udrih,beno 60% 16% 1.30 -15 18.4 scola,luis 60% 33% 1.09 +10 20.8
cousins,demarcus 54% 27% 1.08 - 6 14.2 budinger,chase 53% 19% 1.68 + 8 17.8
landry,carl 60% 23% 1.07 - 9 13.7 miller,brad 33% 11% 2.94 + 7 13.7
thompson,jason 66% 19% 1.02 - 5 12.4 martin,kevin 50% 35% 0.77 + 7 13.4
greene,donte 52% 9% 1.43 - 5 11.7 lowry,kyle 59% 15% 2.05 +11 13.2
garcia,francisco 54% 13% 1.25 + 1 10.6 lee,courtney 50% 19% 1.09 + 6 12.1
head,luther 42% 36% 0.76 - 9 10.2 smith,ishmael 41% 11% 2.01 + 2 10.2
jeter,pooh 45% 20% 1.19 - 1 9.6 hayes,chuck 50% 12% 1.93 + 4 8.4
casspi,omri 48% 19% 1.10 - 8 8.7 hill,jordan 48% 23% 0.99 +11 8.1
dalembert,samuel 19% 8% 1.28 - 8 2.0 battier,shane 47% 10% 1.20 + 5 7.6
evans,tyreke (DNP) jeffries,jared 10% 18% 0.00 - 6 0.0
jackson,darnell (DNP) taylor,jermaine (DNP)
PACE: 94.0 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 94.0 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
kings,sacramento 111.7 .550 .263 .191 .103 rockets,houston 125.5 .554 .311 .117 .098
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NUGGETS 111, MAGIC 94 (box): Carmelo Anthony scored 35 points, and a balanced attack led a 32-16 fourth-quarter finish for Denver as the Nuggets won their 10th straight at the Pepsi Center. J.J. Redick scored a career-best 29 points for Orlando, on just 12 shots from the floor.
ORL (16-9) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR DEN (15-9) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
howard,dwight 78% 27% 0.98 -27 27.5 anthony,carmelo 79% 40% 1.01 +17 40.7
redick,j.j. 79% 20% 1.87 -17 21.9 lawson,ty 70% 21% 1.25 +11 25.2
bass,brandon 55% 23% 0.66 + 2 14.7 afflalo,arron 81% 11% 1.99 +23 14.6
carter,vince 67% 25% 1.02 - 8 13.9 harrington,al 61% 15% 1.72 +17 13.3
nelson,jameer 78% 19% 0.65 -18 8.4 hilario,nenê 71% 14% 1.23 +19 11.2
lewis,rashard 69% 13% 0.90 -23 6.8 smith,j.r. 43% 35% 1.07 - 2 9.5
gortat,marcin 52% 6% 1.12 + 5 6.7 carter,anthony 32% 14% 1.76 + 5 4.9
williams,jason 22% 18% 1.27 + 1 3.7 williams,shelden 44% 5% 0.62 - 2 1.9
allen,malik (DNP) ely,melvin 16% 4% 0.87 - 1 0.9
duhon,chris (DNP) forbes,gary 2% 43% 0.00 - 2 0.0
pietrus,mickael (DNP) balkman,renaldo (DNP)
richardson,quentin (DNP) billups,chauncey (DNP)
PACE: 90.8 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 90.8 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
magic,orlando 103.5 .500 .175 .143 .097 nuggets,denver 122.3 .606 .206 .165 .092
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WARRIORS 108, TIMBERWOLVES 99 (box): Monta Ellis scored 34 points and played all 48 minutes for Golden State, his third complete game of the season. Darko Milicic scored 25 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for the Wolves. Reggie Williams has three 30+ GR games in four starts since taking over for the injured Stephen Curry. Williams is averaging 18.6 points per 40 minutes, almost exactly what he put up last season..
MIN (6-19) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR GSW (9-16) PLY% USG PCP +/- GR
milicic,darko 66% 32% 1.02 -15 24.3 williams,reggie 82% 19% 1.49 +10 31.4
love,kevin 91% 19% 0.87 - 4 16.4 ellis,monta 100% 31% 1.07 + 9 29.7
beasley,michael 73% 23% 1.02 - 3 15.9 lee,david 63% 17% 1.30 -13 18.2
brewer,corey 60% 17% 1.05 - 2 13.3 wright,dorell 63% 26% 0.93 - 1 13.5
webster,martell 55% 24% 1.24 - 7 12.5 law,acie 45% 14% 1.56 + 6 7.9
ridnour,luke 66% 14% 1.28 - 9 11.4 biedrins,andris 66% 6% 2.09 +13 5.1
flynn,jonny 34% 5% 3.38 0 4.8 amundson,louis 55% 18% 0.60 +22 4.4
johnson,wesley 42% 8% 1.03 - 5 3.0 radmanovic,vladimir 14% 19% 1.46 + 2 3.2
pekovic,nikola 13% 29% 0.49 0 2.9 udoh,epke 8% 9% 0.80 - 8 0.6
ellington,wayne (DNP) gadzuric,dan 4% 21% 0.00 + 5 0.0
hayward,lazar (DNP) bell,charlie (DNP)
telfair,sebastian (DNP) lin,jeremy (DNP)
PACE: 94.7 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA% PACE: 94.7 ORTG eFG% oRB% TO% FTA%
timberwolves,minn 104.6 .488 .340 .211 .112 warriors,goldenst 114.1 .578 .279 .201 .144
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NEWS & MOVES
Minutiae from around the league
THUNDER: "After helping the USA earn a 9-0 record and the gold medal at the 2010 FIBA World Championship and taking home tournament MVP honors in the process, Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder) today was announced as the 2010 USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year." (press release)
WIZARDS: "Yi Jianlian may have to wait until March 20 to get his first shot against his former team, the New Jersey Nets. Yi will stay behind as the team hopes to end a 12-game road losing streak against the Nets on Thursday after an MRI revealed that he has a sprained right medial collateral ligament. Yi said he would likely miss the next two to four weeks, which puts his availability for the Wizards' next game against New Jersey on Jan. 7 in doubt." (Washington Post)
Other than shot-blocking, Yi's numbers have gotten worse pretty much across the board in his first season with the Wizards. The timing of this injury sucks because with Andray Blatche also ailing, this would have been another chance for Yi to show he can translate his nice international game to the NBA.
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FAB FIVE
A selection of our favorite NBA links
1. Tom Haberstroh reminds us that today is the day this year's newly-signed free agents are eligible to be traded.
2. Larry Coon points out that tomorrow is the last chance for the owners to inform the players' union that they want to extend the current CBA. Fat chance.
3. John Schuhmann says newly-formed rosters can't necessarily bank on improving later in the season.
4. Strangely enough, Milwaukee's defeat of Dallas on Monday, which snapped the Mavs' 12-game winning streak, might just be a harbinger of the first title for Mark Cuban's franchise.
5. In the first of a series, agent Matt Tolnick lays down the background for the current CBA negotiations.
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ON TAP
Tonight in the NBA
WTC VIS @ HOM, GAMETIME NBAPET LINE OFFICIALS
+16 bos @ nyk, 7:00 PM EST [ bos by 4 ] Bill Kennedy, C. Kirkland, L. Richardson
+10 lal @ ind, 7:00 PM EST [ lal by 4 ] Dan Crawford, Matt Boland, James Williams
+ 8 hou @ okc, 8:00 PM EST [ okc by 6 ] James Capers, Pat Fraher, Olandis Poole
+ 6 por @ dal, 9:30 PM EST [ dal by 12 ] Mike Callahan, Marat Kogut, Jason Phillips
+ 4 mil @ sas, 8:30 PM EST [ sas by 17 ] Scott Foster, Eric Dalen, David Guthrie
+ 3 cha @ mem, 8:00 PM EST [ mem by 4 ] Ron Garretson, Mark Lindsay, Tom Washington
+ 1 chi @ tor, 7:00 PM EST [ chi by 5 ] Ken Mauer, Zach ZarbavGary Zielinski
- 7 lac @ phi, 7:00 PM EST [ phi by 12 ] Marc Davis, Josh Tiven, Sean Wright
- 7 sac @ nwo, 8:00 PM EST [ nwo by 13 ] Michael Smith, Brian Forte, John Goble
- 8 min @ phx, 9:00 PM EST [ phx by 11 ] Bill Spooner, Tony Brothers, Haywoode Workman
-14 cle @ mia, 7:30 PM EST [ mia by 27 ] Bob Delaney, Derrick Collins, Scott Wall
Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.
Through Tuesday, 365 of 1,230 games (29.7%) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.
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GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.
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Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
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On the Beat (12/15)
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