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December 7, 2010
PBP Roundup
Dec. 6

by Bradford Doolittle

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The Knicks remain the league's hottest team, beating Minnesota 121-114 on Monday for their 10th win in 11 games. New York's streak has been part lineup tinkering, part schedule and a good bit of just playing better. The Knicks are 5-0 since moving Wilson Chandler into the starting lineup at power forward, and 10-1 since Timofey Mozgov was demoted to the second unit. Amar'e Stoudemire has been playing at MVP level from the center position and Ray Felton has been a revelation. Before we get too excited, we have to note that nine of New York's wins in this stretch have come against: Sacramento, Golden State, the L.A. Clippers, Charlotte (twice), Detroit, New Jersey, Toronto and Minnesota. Hey, 10 wins in 11 games is terrific no matter who you play or where you play them. Starting Sunday, however, New York has a three-game stretch against Denver, Boston and Miami. If they are still racking wins 10 days from now, then it'll be time to take notice.

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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

1. Kevin Pelton, our resident expert on hoops in the northwest, breaks down Washington's win over Portland--college style. (free preview)

2. Sebastian Pruiti breaks down the Pacers' breakout season using video, text and all sorts of tricks. (premium)

3. The latest Trend Watch looks at the Lakers' slump, Wesley Matthews' ascension and the history of point guard scoring. (premium)

4. Why are so interested in the North Carolina Tar Heels? (Unfiltered)

5. Kevin Pelton reviews FreeDarko Presents the Undisputed Guide to Pro Basketball History. (Unfiltered)

6. Illinois made an early statement by dispatching with Gonzaga in Seattle. (premium)

7. Who sit and who to start. (premium)

8. The Indiana Pacers are off to a great start. (premium)

9. Tennessee springs an early surprise. (premium)

10. Is Arizona's Derrick Williams the player of the year? (premium)

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FANTASY PROJECTIONS

Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated daily and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the next seven days for every player, game-by-game projections and health status updates.

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HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)      GR (12/06/10)        WP82 -- ALL              WP82 -- ROOKIES
celtics,boston, 63.4    love,kevin, 37.4     james,lebron, 25.6       griffin,blake, 16.8
mavericks,dallas, 61.8  gordon,eric, 36.5    williams,deron, 23.3     wall,john, 8.3
spurs,sanantonio, 61.6  wade,dwyane, 34.9    bryant,kobe, 21.4        bledsoe,eric, 3.6
heat,miami, 55.9        boozer,carlos, 32.8  westbrook,russell, 19.2  cousins,demarcus, 3.0
jazz,utah, 55.7         miles,c.j., 29.8     gordon,eric, 18.9        fields,landry, 3.3
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.

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MONDAY'S BOX SCORES & RECAPS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

PACERS 124, RAPTORS 100 (box)

TOR (8-13)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   IND (10-9)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
calderon,jose        63%  18%  1.63  -13 21.6   rush,brandon         66%  26%  1.46  +13 21.9
johnson,amir         59%  20%  1.16  - 9 11.8   hibbert,roy          59%  21%  1.15  +14 19.6
bargnani,andrea      66%  16%  0.84  -20 11.5   granger,danny        65%  29%  1.18  +14 19.1
barbosa,leandro      64%  22%  0.92  -15 11.1   dunleavy jr.,mike    60%   9%  1.93  +19 14.6
derozan,demar        69%  10%  1.01  -14  9.5   mcroberts,josh       54%  23%  1.32  +19 11.0
kleiza,linas         36%  39%  0.69  -13  8.1   ford,t.j.            40%  12%  1.46  + 8  8.9
weems,sonny          41%  26%  0.77  - 4  7.8   collison,darren      53%  18%  1.36  +14  8.7
bayless,jerryd       37%  27%  0.62  -11  6.8   jones,solomon        33%  18%  1.05  + 8  8.4
wright,julian        19%   6%  2.53  -13  6.0   posey,james          41%  17%  1.65  + 6  6.6
davis,ed             39%  15%  0.92  - 6  4.7   hansbrough,tyler     14%  10%  2.54  + 1  3.6
dorsey,joey           8%   8%  0.83  - 2  0.5   price,a.j.            8%  23%  0.50  + 2  0.7
stojakovic,peja (DNP)                           jones,dahntay         8%  12%  0.20  + 2  0.2
PACE: 100.5         ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 100.5         ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
raptors,toronto     99.5 .450  .321 .179 .066   pacers,indiana     123.4 .629  .250 .179 .088

---

HAWKS 80, MAGIC 74 (box)

ATL (14-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   ORL (15-6)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
smith,josh           83%  24%  1.18  - 2 27.1   carter,vince         65%  32%  0.86  - 1 23.6
horford,al           87%  21%  0.96  + 8 18.0   redick,j.j.          49%  17%  1.42  - 4 15.7
crawford,jamal       60%  32%  0.73  + 5 16.3   howard,dwight        82%  25%  0.78  + 3 13.5
bibby,mike           75%  17%  1.41  +19 13.1   lewis,rashard        77%  14%  0.93  + 1 11.0
powell,josh          39%  22%  0.90  + 9  6.4   bass,brandon         49%  31%  0.67  - 2  7.6
collins,jason        32%  18%  0.67  - 1  4.0   duhon,chris          68%   9%  1.42  - 1  6.2
wilkins,damien       24%  11%  0.86  + 7  2.7   gortat,marcin        18%  10%  1.74  - 9  4.1
pachulia,zaza        26%   2%  4.23  - 3  1.3   williams,jason       31%  22%  0.28  - 7  1.6
williams,marvin      43%  16%  0.19  - 1  0.9   pietrus,mickael      30%  12%  0.09  - 8  0.2
thomas,etan           9%   8%  0.61  - 2  0.3   richardson,quentin   31%  12%  0.01  - 2  0.0
evans,maurice        22%  12%  0.13  - 9  0.2   allen,malik (DNP)
teague,jeff (DNP)                               nelson,jameer (DNP)
PACE: 88.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 88.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
hawks,atlanta       90.3 .418  .222 .158 .060   magic,orlando       83.6 .405  .238 .192 .104

---

KNICKS 121, TIMBERWOLVES 114 (box)

UTA (16-6)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   NYK (13-9)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
love,kevin           87%  24%  1.60  + 7 37.4   chandler,wilson      77%  17%  1.65  +12 28.8
beasley,michael      92%  23%  0.98  - 7 19.6   stoudemire,amare     82%  33%  1.02  + 2 20.9
ridnour,luke         59%  23%  1.26  + 8 16.1   felton,raymond       79%  23%  1.45  +17 20.4
johnson,wesley       70%   8%  1.15    0 12.9   williams,shawne      54%  17%  1.40  + 3 20.4
brewer,corey         69%  13%  0.90  -13 10.6   gallinari,danilo     70%  18%  1.17  - 9 12.1
telfair,sebastian    41%  26%  0.91  -15  9.9   fields,landry        59%  10%  0.92  + 1  9.7
milicic,darko        16%  40%  1.26  + 8  8.3   douglas,toney        43%  17%  1.40  + 3  8.7
ellington,wayne      47%  15%  0.69  -10  5.6   turiaf,ronny         26%   9%  1.90  + 9  4.9
pekovic,nikola       19%  19%  0.05  -13  0.2   mozgov,timofey       10%  17%  0.65  - 3  2.0
gaines,sundiata (DNP)                           mason,roger (DNP)
hayward,lazar (DNP)                             randolph,anthony (DNP)
koufos,kosta (DNP)                              rautins,andy (DNP)
PACE: 94.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 94.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
jazz,utah          120.6 .590  .233 .180 .126   knicks,newyork     128.0 .606  .250 .116 .107

---

BULLS 99, THUNDER 90 (box)

OKC (14-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   CHI (11-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
westbrook,russell    73%  31%  0.81  - 9 28.3   boozer,carlos        75%  30%  1.16  +13 32.8
durant,kevin         69%  36%  1.02  + 2 22.8   rose,derrick         80%  23%  0.93  +13 17.2
krstic,nenad         46%  25%  1.39  + 9 13.6   korver,kyle          43%  30%  1.00    0 16.1
harden,james         58%  27%  0.71  -19 11.0   deng,luol            84%  20%  1.19  +13 13.2
maynor,eric          35%  17%  0.78  - 7  7.7   bogans,keith         34%  18%  1.45  + 4  7.1
green,jeff           71%  13%  0.68  + 3  5.0   gibson,taj           53%  10%  0.91    0  6.3
sefolosha,thabo      55%  10%  1.10  + 7  4.3   noah,joakim          43%  21%  1.19  + 5  5.8
ibaka,serge          40%   2%  1.40  -13  2.3   asik,omer            28%   3%  2.57    0  3.3
collison,nick        52%   1%  1.36  -18  1.7   brewer,ronnie        32%   9%  1.50  + 5  3.3
mullens,byron         2%  54%  0.00    0  0.0   watson,c.j.          27%  12%  0.31  - 8  1.2
ivey,royal (DNP)                                johnson,james (DNP)
white,d.j. (DNP)                                scalabrine,brian (DNP)
PACE: 93.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 93.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
thunder,oklacity    96.6 .378  .250 .161 .146   bulls,chicago      106.2 .511  .372 .182 .080

---

HEAT 88, BUCKS 78 (box)

MIA (14-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   MIL (7-13)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
wade,dwyane          81%  40%  0.88  + 8 34.9   bogut,andrew         82%  17%  1.09  -12 23.3
arroyo,carlos        67%  12%  2.34  + 8 21.5   maggette,corey       61%  30%  1.03  - 4 16.8
james,lebron         81%  24%  1.07  +17 18.0   sanders,larry        60%  21%  0.77  -10 10.0
bosh,chris           80%  26%  0.86  +11 13.3   jennings,brandon     67%  27%  0.80  -18  9.2
jones,james          39%   6%  3.18  - 1  6.4   ilyasova,ersan       48%  11%  1.09  +10  8.8
dampier,erick        50%   4%  1.33  + 7  3.9   salmons,john         67%  22%  0.60  - 5  7.0
chalmers,mario       33%  22%  0.46    0  3.4   mbahamoute,luc       48%   9%  1.09  -16  5.9
howard,juwan         20%   3%  3.78  - 1  1.7   douglas-roberts,chr  33%  10%  2.03  - 5  5.6
ilgauskas,zydrunas   34%  11%  0.00  + 3  0.0   dooling,keyon        22%  22%  0.57  + 6  4.1
anthony,joel (DNP)                              boykins,earl         10%  10%  0.68  + 2  0.7
house,eddie (DNP)                               brockman,jon          1%   -%  0.00  + 2  0.0
magloire,jamaal (DNP)                           gooden,drew (DNP)
PACE: 85.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 85.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
heat,miami         103.0 .521  .297 .211 .093   bucks,milwaukee     91.3 .372  .196 .129 .129

---

JAZZ 94, GRIZZLIES 85 (box)

MEM (8-14)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   UTA (16-6)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
randolph,zach        84%  22%  1.04  + 6 26.3   miles,c.j.           60%  27%  1.39  + 9 29.8
gasol,marc           72%  12%  1.85  - 8 19.6   williams,deron       74%  35%  1.14  +14 23.9
gay,rudy             82%  32%  0.67  - 2 16.8   bell,raja            79%   7%  2.85  +10 22.0
conley,mike          78%  21%  1.17  - 8 13.3   kirilenko,andrei     55%  25%  0.67    0  8.8
mayo,o.j.            49%  20%  0.76  - 4 10.3   jefferson,al         79%  19%  0.80  + 3  8.2
vasquez,greivis      22%  31%  0.61  - 1  5.8   millsap,paul         68%  18%  0.74  + 6  7.6
arthur,darrell       36%  21%  0.91  - 8  4.0   elson,francisco      17%  16%  1.51  + 3  3.1
henry,xavier         50%   3%  1.27  - 5  1.3   watson,earl          41%  11%  0.78    0  3.0
thabeet,hasheem       7%  14%  0.00  - 8  0.0   fesenko,kyrylo       21%   2%  1.11  + 6  0.9
young,sam (DNP)                                 price,ronnie          6%  14%  0.40  - 6  0.4
allen,tony (DNP)                                evans,jeremy (DNP)
carroll,demarre (DNP)                           hayward,gordon (DNP)
PACE: 87.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 87.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
grizzlies,memphis   97.3 .424  .317 .160 .116   jazz,utah          107.6 .469  .250 .137 .101

---

CLIPPERS 98, KINGS 91 (box)

SAC (4-15)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   LAC (5-17)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
cousins,demarcus     60%  27%  0.94  - 5 23.1   gordon,eric          76%  27%  1.31  + 7 36.5
landry,carl          71%  15%  1.19  + 8 21.4   bledsoe,eric         58%  25%  1.10  +19 18.5
casspi,omri          71%  16%  1.84  + 8 15.2   griffin,blake        68%  27%  1.00  +12 15.3
jeter,pooh           36%  27%  1.16  +10 12.1   butler,rasual        48%  24%  0.74  - 2 11.7
evans,tyreke         84%  24%  0.74  -14 10.7   gomes,ryan           61%  22%  1.25  + 4  9.6
dalembert,samuel     45%  17%  1.01  - 8  5.8   davis,baron          42%  23%  0.96  -12  5.9
thompson,jason       23%  28%  0.65  - 5  4.2   aminu,alfarouq       37%  12%  0.62  +14  3.7
udrih,beno           58%  18%  0.35  -20  3.2   jordan,deandre       53%   5%  1.69  + 7  3.2
greene,donte         29%  14%  0.25  -15  1.8   collins,jarron       37%   6%  1.00  - 4  1.5
garcia,francisco     23%   6%  0.84  + 6  1.1   smith,craig          21%   2%  0.65  -10  0.3
head,luther (DNP)                               cook,brian (DNP)
jackson,darnell (DNP)                           warren,willie (DNP)
PACE: 92.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 92.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
kings,sacramento    98.6 .382  .295 .141 .153   clippers,losangele 106.2 .488  .273 .152 .110

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NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from around the league

NBA: "The New York Knicks' Amar'e Stoudemire and the Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook today were named the Eastern and Western Conference Players of the Week, respectively, for games played Monday, Nov. 29, through Sunday, Dec. 5." (press release)
Rather than telling you who should have won, I'll simply submit a chart of last week's GR leaders, on a per-game basis, for all players that appeared in at least three contests:

PLAYER            GP    GR   AVG
curry,stephen      3  91.0  30.3
james,lebron       4 115.9  29.0
nash,steve         3  82.5  27.5
wade,dwyane        4 109.0  27.3
felton,raymond     3  81.2  27.1
stoudemire,amare   3  80.7  26.9
love,kevin         3  78.2  26.1
bryant,kobe        3  76.4  25.5
gordon,eric        3  76.0  25.3
conley,mike        4  98.8  24.7
jefferson,al       3  74.1  24.7
griffin,blake      3  73.1  24.4
evans,tyreke       3  71.6  23.9
farmar,jordan      4  94.1  23.5
granger,danny      3  69.2  23.1
ginobili,manu      4  89.6  22.4
westbrook,russell  4  89.6  22.4
gay,rudy           4  89.4  22.4
miller,andre       4  87.3  21.8
rondo,rajon        3  65.0  21.7
lee,david          3  64.7  21.6
chandler,wilson    3  63.2  21.1
arenas,gilbert     4  83.4  20.9
green,jeff         4  83.3  20.8
nowitzki,dirk      4  81.3  20.3

CLIPPERS: The Clippers' Baron Davis left in the fourth with a sore left hamstring. He returned to the lineup last week after being out since Nov. 9 because of a sore left knee. 'I don't know how bad it is,' coach Vinny Del Negro said." (The Associated Press)
Ugh. Unplayable, untradeable and expensive. Johnny Rotten used to write songs about guys like this.

KINGS: "When asked the last time he hadn't been a regular starter, Samuel Dalembert laughed. That's the new role for Dalembert and Carl Landry as part of the Kings' recent shakeup of the starting lineup." (Sacramento Bee)
This leaves Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins as the starting frontcourt for Paul Westphal. I of course am all for it--when in doubt, play the kids. The Kings may be the league's most disappointing team so far and in a lost campaign, they have to let the young core develop around Tyreke Evans.

KNICKS: "Turiaf will come off the bench for now, D'Antoni said, because he doesn't want to mess with his current lineup, which has Stoudemire starting at center and Wilson Chandler at power forward, and has produced five straight victories." (Bergen Record)
Turiaf has been hurt and he's ready to go now, but Mike D'Antoni is no fool. Chandler has been enjoying a breakout season and with the Knicks riding high, there is no reason to tamper with the team's chemistry.

NETS: "The New Jersey Nets have recalled guard/forward Terrence Williams from their NBA Development League affiliate, The Springfield Armor, Nets General Manager Billy King announced today. In three games with the Armor, all starts, Williams averaged 28.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 10.7 assists, and 1.3 steals in 41.7 minutes per game." (press release)
From a productivity standpoint, Williams' temporary exile couldn't have gone much better. Williams was also contrite about the quirky behavior that got him sent to the D-League in the first place, and he pledged to do better. Now it's up Avery Johnson to figure out how to get the most out of this talented, multi-skilled player. Though he's a bit undersized for a small forward, you'd hope to see Williams eventually wrest that position from Travis Outlaw, whose true calling is off-the-bench scoring.

ROCKETS: "Second-year guard Jermaine Taylor moved ahead of rookie point guard Ish Smith in the Rockets' rotation and will play in the backcourt off the bench with Courtney Lee sliding over to play the point for stretches behind starter Kyle Lowry." (Houston Chronicle)
Interesting manuever by Rockets coach Rick Adelman, who looks to get some more punch in his second unit. Taylor has explosive scoring ability, but he was also on the verge of being waived back when it looked like Houston was going to sign Erick Dampier. This is quite a turnaround for the kid.

THUNDER: "The Thunder recalled rookie center Cole Aldrich from the Tulsa 66ers of the NBA Development League on Monday. Brooks said the move was fueled by a desire to check on Aldrich's progress. He averaged 7.8 points and 7.2 rebounds in five games for Tulsa." (press release)
Aldrich probably won't see much, if any, game action. OKC coach Scott Brooks said Aldrich was brought back strictly to see how far he's progressed in his time in the D-League. One problem for the former KU center is that he averaged 5.2 fouls in just over 27 minutes per game.

TIMBERWOLVES: "Rambis says there's "zero chance" Flynn plays tonite vs Knicks, will return to D League for 2 games this weekend." (Jerry Zgoda via Twitter)
Guess Flynn's recall from the D-League was premature.

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ON TAP

Tonight in the NBA

WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
- 2  njn @ atl,  7:00 PM EST [ atl by 11 ]   James Capers, Eric Lewis, James Williams
+ 4  den @ cha,  7:00 PM EST [ den by  3 ]   David Jones, Marat Kogut, Sean Wright
-10  cle @ phi,  7:00 PM EST [ phi by 12 ]   Dan Crawford, Curtis Blair, Tony Brothers
- 2  gsw @ dal,  8:30 PM EST [ dal by 16 ]   Bob Delaney, Derrick Collins, Kevin Cutler
- 5  det @ hou,  8:30 PM EST [ hou by  8 ]   Jason Phillips, Eric Dalen, David Guthrie
+ 6  phx @ por, 10:00 PM EST [ por by  1 ]   Derrick Stafford, Bennie Adams, Derek Richardson
- 8  was @ lal, 10:30 PM EST [ lal by 21 ]   Mike Callahan, Pat Fraher, Tre Maddox
Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.

Through Monday, 307 of 1,230 games (25.0%) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of at team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

You can follow Bradford on Twitter at twitter.com/@bbdoolittle.

The 2010-11 Pro Basketball Prospectus is now available in paperback form on Amazon.com. For sample chapters and more information, see our book page.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

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2010-12-01 - PBP Roundup: Nov. 25-30
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