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What if the NBA was to borrow some of the excitement of March Madness? How about the idea of a single-game elimination tournament that would supplement, not replace, the current playoff format? As crazy as that may sound, it's standard operating procedure in Europe, and even here in the U.S. MLS teams participate in the U.S. Open Cup in the midst of their league play.
I first recall thinking about an NBA tournament when George Karl, who participated in Copa del Rey while coaching Spanish club Real Madrid, wrote about it in his autobiography. The more I've considered the idea, the more I like it. In particular, I think a tournament is a good way for the NBA to counteract its March malaise. Not only are people like me who divide our attention between the pro and college game busy watching the NCAA Tournament, but many teams are already playing out the string by this point--either because their playoff seeding is secure and they're waiting for the playoffs to begin or because their attention has turned to the upcoming lottery.
A single-elimination tournament would also address some of the issues fans and the media have raised with the NBA's current playoff system. Travel is less of an issue in the shorter format, so there's no need to necessarily split teams by conference. A tournament would also give teams going nowhere something to play for in March, along the lines of the various tournaments people have suggested in place of the lottery to discourage tanking.
In my vision, the league would pause its regular schedule after Selection Sunday, setting the matchups based on current standings. The top two teams in the league (Cleveland and the L.A. Lakers this year) would receive byes, with the other 28 paired off for games to be played Tuesday or Wednesday prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament. The better-seeded team would host those games. The next Monday, winners would gather at four "regionals" hosted by the top four teams remaining. On the Wednesday prior to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, the remaining eight teams would play at those sites for spots in the NBA's Final Four, which would be played the following Friday and Sunday at a neutral site.
Add a sponsor to put up prize money for the winners and you've got the makings of an interesting contrast to the NBA's grueling postseason.
To help you imagine such a tournament, I simulated the results using the format outlined above. To project outcomes, I used the log5 method popularized on this site by Ken Pomeroy's NCAA projections--with a twist. Instead of using my season-long schedule-adjusted point differential, I used only results from the month of March to emphasize that getting hot at the right time (and being healthy) would be crucial. I then randomly generated a number to determine the outcome of each game. Here are the results, along with made-up scores and storylines.
Opening Round
At (3) Orlando 111, (30) New Jersey 95
The Nets, hoping to salvage something given a chance to start over in this tournament, never challenged the Magic, trailing by as many as 25 points.
At (4) Denver 117, (29) Minnesota 99
Despite 18 points and 11 rebounds from Darko Milicic, the Timberwolves had no answer for a potent Nuggets offense that shot 53.3 percent from the field in the win.
At (5) Dallas 112, (28) Golden State 109
Stephen Curry's three-point attempt at the buzzer was off, capping a wild fourth quarter that saw the Warriors rally from a 13-point deficit behind the play of Curry and Reggie Williams. Dirk Nowitzki's 32 points led the Mavericks.
At (6) Atlanta 101, (27) Indiana 94
Jamal Crawford scored 12 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter, helping the Hawks hold off a feisty Pacers squad.
(26) Washington 104, at (7) Oklahoma City 100
The first round's biggest upset saw the Wizards ride 26 points and 13 rebounds from Andray Blatche to an upset at the Ford Center. Alonzo Gee helped limit Kevin Durant to 19 points on 7-of-23 shooting.
At (8) Utah 107, (25) Sacramento 99
Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer outplayed Kings counterparts Tyreke Evans and Carl Landry, combining for 47 points in the Jazz's victory.
(24) Philadelphia 90, at (9) Boston 84
The 76ers stunned an angry crowd at the Fleet Center by holding the Celtics to 17 fourth-quarter points in an upset win. Jrue Holiday's 19 points and nine assists led Philadelphia.
At (10) San Antonio 107, (23) New York 95
Tim Duncan (23 points, nine boards) and Manu Ginobili (19 points, seven assists) did their work early and rested nearly the entire fourth period of the Spurs' easy win.
At (11) Phoenix 113, (22) Detroit 92
The Suns put up 65 points by halftime and coasted to an easy win over the listless Pistons.
At (12) Portland 99, (21) L.A. Clippers 91
The Blazers toyed with the Clippers for three and a half quarters before putting them away with a 12-2 run late in the fourth.
At (13) Milwaukee 108, (20) Chicago 94
In what media dubbed the "John Salmons Bowl," the Bucks considered their strong run since dealing for Salmons from the Bulls at the deadline, holding Chicago to 43.3 percent shooting.
(19) New Orleans 105, at (14) Charlotte 103
In the day's most thrilling game, Darren Collison scored a layup with less than a second remaining in the Hornets' triumphant return to Charlotte.
At (15) Memphis 105, (18) Toronto 96
The reeling Raptors had no answer on the glass for the Grizzlies' frontline of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, who collected a combined 11 of their 27 rebounds on the offensive boards.
At (16) Miami 102, (17) Houston 96
Dwyane Wade scored twice in the final minute after the teams were tied at 96 with 1:04 to play, and Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin both missed shots that could have kept the Rockets in the game.
Cleveland Regional
At (1) Cleveland 100, (16) Miami 93
Wade and LeBron James went head to head in an anticipated matchup, but it was James who had the final word, putting up a triple-double (28 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists) and blocking Wade's shot in the waning moments to end the Heat's hopes of coming back.
(8) Utah 104, (24) Philadelphia 88
The Jazz never trailed and built a double-digit lead by the middle of the second quarter in easily dispatching of a 76ers team that appeared happy just to have won a game in the tournament.
At (1) Cleveland 103, (8) Utah 101
With the final seconds ticking down, Quicken Loans Arena rose in anticipation. The Cavaliers' faithful weren't disappointed, as James up-faked Andrei Kirilenko and leaned into the game-winning 22-footer as the buzzer sounded, eliminating Utah.
L.A. Lakers Regional
At (2) L.A. Lakers 101, (15) Memphis 97
The Grizzlies gave the Lakers some trouble with their physical frontcourt, but ultimately Pau Gasol was too much for his former squad, scoring a pair of three-point plays in the paint in the final three minutes as the Lakers held Memphis off.
(10) San Antonio 102, (26) Washington 95
Gregg Popovich's decision to rest Duncan with an eye toward a regional final against the Lakers two days later looked like a mistake when the Wizards took a surprising three-point lead to the locker room, but Ginobili (27 points) came alive in the second half to provide just enough scoring for the Spurs to advance without their leader.
(10) San Antonio 97, at (2) L.A. Lakers 94
The first meaningful meeting of the new decade between the NBA's top teams of the 2000s was a classic, with four ties and six lead changes in the final quarter. Duncan scored with 32.5 seconds left to put the Spurs on top, and Richard Jefferson made two free throws after a Derek Fisher miss. Kobe Bryant had a chance to force overtime, but his try at the buzzer bounced in and out.
Orlando Regional
At (3) Orlando 103, (19) New Orleans 94
The return of Chris Paul was not enough to push the Hornets past the host Magic, which got 28 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks from Dwight Howard as well as 12 three-pointers in the win.
(11) Phoenix 108, (6) Atlanta 103
The Steve Nash-Amar'e Stoudemire pick-and-roll worked to perfection for the Suns in the fourth quarter. Phoenix abused Mike Bibby defensively, forcing Mike Woodson to go big, but Crawford was little more effective at slowing Nash, who found Stoudemire at the rim for eight of his 26 points in the period.
At (3) Orlando 99, (11) Phoenix 94
The Magic was able to slow down Nash and company and turn the game into a half-court slugfest. Orlando turned the game over to Vince Carter in the final quarter, and he delivered seven points and a pair of assists to Howard to salt the game away.
Denver Regional
At (4) Denver 108, (13) Milwaukee 107
The Bucks continued their strong play by forcing the host Nuggets to the limit, but Carmelo Anthony's jumper with 8.4 seconds to play gave Denver the lead and Brandon Jennings' shot just before the buzzer was blocked by Nenê to preserve the victory.
(12) Portland 104, (5) Dallas 95
The 5-12 upset extends to the pro game, where the Blazers got 26 points and seven assists from Brandon Roy and the energetic defense of forward Nicolas Batum frustrated Dirk Nowitzki in the final quarter.
(12) Portland 108, at (4) Denver 102
The Blazers completed their surprising run to the Final Four by knocking off the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center behind the efforts of a pair of former Denver players. Andre Miller controlled the game with 13 points and 11 assists, while Marcus Camby blocked six shots and grabbed 18 rebounds in dominating the paint.
Final Four (in Las Vegas)
(1) Cleveland 105, (12) Portland 97
Drawing motivation from criticism on a Blazers blog, James dropped a virtuoso performance on an unsuspecting Portland team. James scored 42 points, made five three-pointers and was a major factor on the defensive end. Only an off night for Antawn Jamison (3-of-13 from the field) allowed the Blazers to stay close.
(3) Orlando 113, (10) San Antonio 109 (OT)
A questionable call sent Howard to the free throw line and Duncan to the bench with six fouls midway through the extra session, and the momentum change helped the Magic overcome the veteran Spurs and earn a spot in the title game. George Hill forced overtime by making a three-pointer from the baseline with 2.3 seconds remaining in regulation, the result of a great playcall by Popovich. But Orlando shook off the late score and maintained its composure in OT, setting up a showdown between the East's top two teams in the championship game.
(3) Orlando 107, (1) Cleveland 102
In what Stan Van Gundy jokingly called Game 7 of the previous spring's Eastern Conference Finals series, the Magic continued its mastery of the Cavaliers. With Shaquille O'Neal sidelined, Cleveland again had no answer for Howard in the paint. He finished with 29 points and 15 boards. The Cavaliers got a big boost from Leon Powe, who scored 14 points in just 19 minutes of action off the bench, but Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus combined to keep James in check. He finished with 22 points and five assists, well below his season averages. Howard's play earned him the Most Outstanding Player award for the tournament.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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